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    Short-Term Forecasting of Global Energy and Metal Prices: VAR and VECM Approaches by Diana Balioz

    Published 2022-12-01
    “…This study introduces a set of multivariate models with the aim of forecasting global prices of 1) crude oil, 2) natural gas, 3) iron ore, and 4) steel. Various versions of vector autoregression and error-correction models are applied to monthly data for the short-term prediction of nominal commodity prices six months ahead, and to examine forecast accuracy. …”
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