Charlson comorbidity index has no incremental value for mortality risk prediction in nursing home residents with COVID-19 disease by Anum Zahra, Maarten van Smeden, Petra J. M. Elders, Jan Festen, Jacobijn Gussekloo, Karlijn J. Joling, Anouk van Loon, Kim Luijken, René J. F. Melis, Simon P. Mooijaart, Karel G. M. Moons, Geeske Peeters, Harmke A. Polinder-Bos, Fenne Wouters, Anne de Hond

“…The base model, with age and sex as predictors, had an AUROC of 0.61 (CI: 0.60 to 0.63), a scaled brier score of 0.03 (CI: 0.02 to 0.04), and a calibration slope of 0.97 (CI: 0.83 to 1.13). …”
Get full text

Development and validation of a hyperlipidemia risk prediction model for middle-aged and older adult Chinese using 2015 CHARLS data by Li-xiang Zhang, Shan-Bing Hou, Fang-fang Zhao, Ting-ting Wang, Ying Jiang, Xiao-juan Zhou, Jiao-yu Cao

“…The Spiegelhalter’s z-statistic test confirmed that the predicted probabilities from the nomogram model are in good agreement with the observed frequencies of hyperlipidemia (p = 0.560). The Brier score for the nomogram model was 17.1%, which is below the threshold of 25%, indicating good calibration. …”
Get full text

Derivation and validation of a clinical predictive model for longer duration diarrhea among pediatric patients in Kenya using machine learning algorithms by Billy Ogwel, Vincent H. Mzazi, Alex O. Awuor, Caleb Okonji, Raphael O. Anyango, Caren Oreso, John B. Ochieng, Stephen Munga, Dilruba Nasrin, Kirkby D. Tickell, Patricia B. Pavlinac, Karen L. Kotloff, Richard Omore

“…Model calibrations were assessed using Brier, Spiegelhalter’s z-test and its accompanying p-value. …”
Get full text

Development of a clinical-radiological nomogram for predicting severe postoperative peritumoral brain edema following intracranial meningioma resection by Chen Bo, Geng Ao, Lu Siyuan, Lu Siyuan, Wu Ting, Wang Dianjun, Zhao Nan, Shan Xiuhong, Deng Yan, Sun Eryi

“…Calibration curves assessed the accuracy of the clinical-radiomics nomogram in predicting outcomes, with Brier scores used as an indicator of concordance. …”
Get full text

Development and validation of a prediction model for coronary heart disease risk in depressed patients aged 20 years and older using machine learning algorithms by Yicheng Wang, Yicheng Wang, Yicheng Wang, Chuan-Yang Wu, Hui-Xian Fu, Jian-Cheng Zhang, Jian-Cheng Zhang, Jian-Cheng Zhang

“…The evaluation metrics applied in this study included the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, Brier scores, decision curve analysis (DCA), and the precision-recall (PR) curve. …”
Get full text

Development of a Bayesian Network-based Safety Performance Quantification Model on building construction projects in Korea by Taegeun Song, Kiseok Lee, Yoonseok Shin, Wi Sung Yoo

“…The SPQM also leverages safety inspection documents produced by site supervisors to train Bayesian networks with Python 3.8 and verify network performance through the Brier Score (BS). The BS of the trained model is below 0.25, and the prediction rate is approximately 80%. …”
Get full text

基于OCTA构建糖尿病肾脏病临床预测模型 by 陆丽娇, 徐楠, 刘鑫鑫, 杜芳芳, 郑枞, 彭鸿钧, 曹明哲, 艾诗蓓

“…结果构建基于OCTA的DKD临床预测模型，ROC曲线下面积为0.878，Brier=0.11。结论本研究构建了基于OCTA结果进行糖尿病肾脏病临床预测的列线图预测模型，并从多维度验证模型，从而达到早期预警、提前实施干预的目的。…”
Get full text

Model Optimization Analysis of Customer Churn Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms with Focus on Feature Reductions by Seyed Mohammad Sina Mirabdolbaghi, Babak Amiri

“…It outperforms other ensemble and ML algorithms like AdaBoost, SVM, and decision tree on over seven evaluation metrics: accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), Kappa, Mathews correlation coefficient (MCC), Brier score, F1 score, and EMPC. In light of the evaluation metrics, our model shows a significant improvement in handling imbalanced datasets in churn prediction. …”
Get full text

RadiomixNet: Integrating Radiomics and Feature Extraction for Advanced Pneumonia Diagnosis by Rahul Gowtham Poola, Siva Sankar Yellampalli

“…The performance of these classifiers was evaluated using metrics such as Cohen’s Kappa, Accuracy, Matthews Correlation Coefficient, Sensitivity, Youden’s Index, Specificity, Log Loss, and Brier Score. Among these, Gradient Boosting demonstrated superior performance across all feature sets, achieving a Cohen’s Kappa of 0.93, MCC of 0.88, Youden’s Index of 0.82, and a Log Loss of 0.27.…”
Get full text

Survival parametric modeling for patients with heart failure based on Kernel learning by Maryam Montaseri, Mansour Rezaei, Armin Khayati, Shayan Mostafaei, Mohammad Taheri

“…The models were assessed using the Concordance index (C-index) and Brier score (B-score). Each model was tested on both a case study and a replicated/independent dataset. …”
Get full text

Probabilistic Forecasts of Storm Sudden Commencements From Interplanetary Shocks Using Machine Learning by A. W. Smith, I. J. Rae, C. Forsyth, D. M. Oliveira, M. P. Freeman, D. R. Jackson

“…Four models are tested including linear (Logistic Regression), nonlinear (Naive Bayes and Gaussian Process), and ensemble (Random Forest) models and are shown to provide skillful and reliable forecasts of SCs with Brier Skill Scores (BSSs) of ∼0.3 and ROC scores >0.8. …”
Get full text

Use of Nomogram to Predict the Risk of Lymph Node Metastasis among Patients with Cervical Adenocarcinoma by Yongju Tian, Yiping Hao, Qingqing Liu, Ruowen Li, Zhonghao Mao, Nan Jiang, Bingyu Wang, Wenjing Zhang, Xiaofang Zhang, Baoxia Cui

“…The nomogram developed by incorporation of these four predictors performed well in terms of discrimination and calibration capabilities (C−index=0.794; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.727–0.862; Brier score=0.127). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically effective in the prediction of LNM. …”
Get full text

Machine learning-assisted cancer diagnosis in patients with paraneoplastic autoantibodies by Alireza Maleki, Mohammad Mahdi Mirza Ali Mohammadi, Shahab Gholizadeh, Behnaz Dalvandi, Mohammad Rahimi, Aidin Tarokhian

“…Model performance was evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, predictive values, AUC-ROC, Brier score, and overall accuracy. Feature importance was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. …”
Get full text

Comparing imputation approaches to handle systematically missing inputs in risk calculators. by Anja Mühlemann, Philip Stange, Antoine Faul, Serena Lozza-Fiacco, Rowan Iskandar, Manuela Moraru, Susanne Theis, Petra Stute, Ben D Spycher, David Ginsbourger

“…We compare the methods using scoring techniques for forecast evaluation, with a focus on the Brier and CRPS scores. We also discuss the classification of patients into risk groups defined by thresholding predicted probabilities. …”
Get full text

Sociocybernetics and autopoiesis by Sonja Verwey

“… Contemporary debates in social disciplines are making increasing reference to theoretical concepts such as sociocybernetics and autopoiesis (Bailey, 1983, 1997, 2001; Bopry, 2007, Brier, 2005; Geyer, 1994, 1995, 2003; Glanville, 2004; Goldspink, 2001; Hernes & Bakken, 2003; Krippendorff, 1996; Letiche, 2007; Luhmann, 1996; Mingers, 2002b; Morgan, 1998; Scott, 1996, 2001b, 2003; Smith & Higgins, 2003; Umpleby, 2005; Van der Zouwen, 1997; Von Foerster, 2003; Von Glasersfeld, 1996). …”
Get full text

Predicting purulent meningitis in very preterm infants: a novel clinical model by Xiaowei Sun, Rui Jing, Yang Li

“…These were used to construct a risk prediction nomogram and verified its accuracy. The Brier score was 0.157, the calibration slope was 1.0, and the concordance index was 0.849. …”
Get full text

The external validity of machine learning-based prediction scores from hematological parameters of COVID-19: A study using hospital records from Brazil, Italy, and Western Europe. by Ali Safdari, Chanda Sai Keshav, Deepanshu Mody, Kshitij Verma, Utsav Kaushal, Vaadeendra Kumar Burra, Sibnath Ray, Debashree Bandyopadhyay

“…The meta-validation on the external performances revealed the reliability of the performance (AUC score 86%) along with good accuracy of the probabilistic prediction (Brier score 14%), particularly when the model was trained and tested on fourteen haematological parameters from the same country (Brazil). …”
Get full text

An Empirical Model of the Occurrence Rate of Low Latitude Post‐Sunset Plasma Irregularities Derived From CHAMP and Swarm Magnetic Observations by C. Stolle, T. A. Siddiqui, L. Schreiter, S. K. Das, I. Rusch, M. Rother, E. Doornbos

“…Additionally, the reliability plots show proximity to the diagonal line with a decent Brier Skill Score (BSS) of 0.249, 0.210, and 0.267 for Swarm A, B, and C respectively at 15% climatological occurrence rate. …”
Get full text

Forecasting the Probability of Large Rates of Change of the Geomagnetic Field in the UK: Timescales, Horizons, and Thresholds by A. W. Smith, C. Forsyth, I. J. Rae, T. M. Garton, T. Bloch, C. M. Jackman, M. Bakrania

“…We find all three models are reliable and skillful, with Brier skill scores, receiver‐operating characteristic scores and precision‐recall scores of approximately 0.25, 0.95 and 0.45, respectively. …”
Get full text

MEMPSEP‐I. Forecasting the Probability of Solar Energetic Particle Event Occurrence Using a Multivariate Ensemble of Convolutional Neural Networks by Subhamoy Chatterjee, Maher A. Dayeh, Andrés Muñoz‐Jaramillo, Hazel M. Bain, Kimberly Moreland, Samuel Hart

“…This work focuses on estimating true SEP occurrence probabilities achieving a 2.5% improvement in reliability and a Brier score of 0.14. The outcome provides flexibility for the end‐users to determine their own acceptable level of risk, rather than imposing a detection threshold that optimizes an arbitrary binary classification metric. …”
Get full text