Research on Monthly Runoff Forecast in Beijiang River Basin Based on Multi-model Ensemble Method by ZHONG Yixuan, LIAO Xiaolong, QUAN Xujian, YI Ling, CHEN Yan, LI Yuanyuan, XUE Jiao

“…The accuracy of the monthly runoff forecast plays a fairly important role in aspects such as optimal allocation of water resources,flood control and drought relief in a basin,water dispatching,and power generation optimization of reservoir groups.The commonly used methods for the monthly runoff forecast mainly include water balance models,mathematical statistics models,and artificial neural networks.Studies have shown that any single model cannot achieve the optimal monthly runoff forecast.Therefore,the multi-model ensemble method provides an effective way to eliminate model uncertainty and improve the accuracy of the monthly runoff forecast.Specifically,the research takes Pingshi,Lishi,Hengshi,and Shijiao stations in the Beijiang River Basin as the research object to analyze and compare the effects of the seasonal auto-regressive (SAR) model,two-parameter monthly water balance (TPMWB) model,and artificial neural network (ANN) model.Then,the multi-model ensemble method for the above-mentioned stations is proposed on the basis of the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method.The research results reveal that compared with any of the three models,the multi-model ensemble method has significantly improved the accuracy of the monthly runoff forecast with a higher determination coefficient (DC) and a lower mean absolute percentage error (MAPE),and thus it can provide better support for decisions in dispatching in the basin.…”
Get full text

Study on Spatial Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Air Quality Index in Beijing and Its Correlation with Local Meteorological Conditions by Jiaqi Guo, Zhongke Feng

“…In order to explore the correlation between air quality and meteorological condition in Beijing from 2014 to 2017, researchers processed 52165 sample data from 35 air monitor stations by means of R statistical software, analyzed the spatial temporal distribution characteristics of air quality index (AQI) with Kriging and mathematical statistics and did the research on correlation between spatial temporal distribution characteristics of AQI and meteorological condition. …”
Get full text

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF SINGLE-LAYER CYLINDRICAL VESSEL BURST PRESSURE by LIU Cen, YANG Fan, LIU Bing, YUAN XiaoHui, ZHANG HongWei, LIU XiaoNing

“…The burst pressure probability distribution of single-layer cylindrical vessel was analyzed by using the hypothesis test method in the mathematical statistics theory,based on 84 sets measured burst pressure data of single-layer cylindrical vessel. …”
Get full text

Study on Flood Evolution Law of Typical River Basins in Daqinghe Mountain Area under Changing Environment by WANG Siqi, ZHU Hongpeng, LU Fan, JIANG Ming, ZHOU Yuyan

“…Among the major river basins in China,Haihe River basin is greatly affected by environmental changes in terms of hydrological situations.Therefore,in-depth studies on the impact of environmental changes on flood evolution in the basin are of practical significance.Two typical sub-basins at the upper reaches of Zijingguan hydrological station and Fuping hydrological station are selected,and the two stations are located in the Daqinghe mountain area of the Haihe River basin.According to the flood process and precipitation data of the annual maximum flood peak of the two stations from 1960 to 2018,the changes in flood process,runoff coefficient,and runoff threshold are analyzed by mathematical statistics and other methods,and a time-varying parameter model GAMLSS is used to analyze the changes in flood frequency under inconsistency conditions.The results show that the flood peak discharge of the two sub-basins decreased significantly from 1960 to 2018,and the average value of flood peak discharge and runoff coefficient in different stages became small gradually.The average values of runoff threshold of the two sub-basins were 14 and 16 mm,respectively,from 2000 to 2018.The hydrological inconsistency caused by the change in underlying surfaces has a significant impact on the design flood value,and follow-up analysis and calculation of hydrology should pay attention to the impact of environmental changes on hydrological series.…”
Get full text

THE COMPLEX OF EMOTIONAL EXPERIENCES, RELEVANT MANIFESTATIONS OF INSPIRATION by Pavel A. Starikov, Eugenia P. Porkhacheva, Svetlana N. Lykova

“…The proposed methods of mathematical statistics (correlation analysis, factor analysis, multidimensional scaling) are applied.Results and scientific novelty. …”
Get full text

Web Accessibility Analysis of Massive Open Online Courses in Mathematical Disciplines by E. A. Kosova, M. Yu. Khalilova

“…By automatic testing using Web Accessibility Checker, the accessibility of the functional and informational content of the MOOCs was evaluated. 73% of MOOCs were found to conform to the syllabus subjects “Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics”, “Discrete Mathematics” and “Algebra and Geometry”; 8 basic disciplines of higher mathematics education are not covered by online education; 96,4% of the courses have accessibility limitations, especially for people with visual impairment. …”
Get full text

Properties of Gaussian Beam Propagating in Ring Resonator Sensor by Long Jin, Zhiqiang Yang, Qiang Zhang

“…What is more, we propose a ring resonator sensor to measure the concentration of NaCl solution on the basis of above theory, of which the operating principle is deliberatively analyzed, the influence of the concave mirror curvature radius on the emerging beam evolution is acquired, the functional relation between the normalized central intensity of the emerging beam, the beam spot size, and NaCl solution concentration is further developed by fit linear method, and the mathematical statistics results reach high precision and linearity. …”
Get full text

National and regional aspects of formation of physical culture and recreation environment in educational institutions of the Republic of Tatarstan by Manurov, Ilgiz M., Kalmanovich, Vladimir L.

“…In our work, we applied such methods as study and comparative analysis of pedagogical and methodological literature; systematic analysis of legal documents; generalization of the experience of pedagogical practice; questionnaires; methods of mathematical statistics and experimental methods. Physical culture and wellness environment of the university has a huge value potential and great opportunities in the field of training organization and education of students, formation of general culture, development of socially significant qualities and personal attitude to health care as a value. …”
Get full text

Stagnation and renewable growth of enterprises: an empirical analysis by sectors of the Russian economy by V. V. Spitsin, V. A. Leonova, L. Yu. Spitsina, A. D. Bragin

“…The research methods are the calculation of economic coefficients and the identification of differences between them using methods of mathematical statistics. It was found that in an unfavorable external environment, significant proportion of Russian enterprises showed signs of stagnation or drop in sales. …”
Get full text

Retracted: The Application of Edge Computing Technology in the Collaborative Optimization of Intelligent Transportation System Based on Information Physical Fusion by Gongxing Yan, Qi Qin

“…By comparing the work efficiency and utility under the two methods, fitting data is performed, and mathematical statistics and mathematical analysis methods are used to verify the fitted data. …”
Get full text

Classification of Performance Grades of High Modulus Asphalt and Its Mixture: Taking China as an Example by Lu Zhou, Kaixi Duan, Feng Gao, Yi Fu, Qian Chen

“…Based on the results of mathematical statistics and the relevant specifications of high modulus asphalt in China, the performance grades of high modulus asphalt and its mixture were proposed. …”
Get full text

RESEARCH ON ADAPTABILITY AND RELIABILITY OF DESIGN FORMULAS IN PRESSURE EQUIPMENT PRESSURE by LIU Cen, WU SengLin, YANG Fan, HONG Kai, ZHANG Shu, LIU XiaoNing

“…In order to provide the basis for selecting suitable design formula of pressure equipment strength,and to establish the reliability method of pressure equipment strength design,the ratio of the flat winding vessel burst pressure actual value to the formula calculated value was considered as a random variable. applied mathematical statistics and probability theory,the validity and homogeneity of random variables statistical samples were discussed,the random variables distribution law was analyzed,the comparison method of random variables distribution parameters was constructed. …”
Get full text

Improving the selection of object-analogues of oil and gas fields in designing reservoir engineering by Alexander V. Karsakov, Pavel N. Zyatikov, Kirill V. Sinebriukhov, Irina V. Sharf

“…Evaluation and analysis of the necessary data to define the degree of similarity of reservoir development by the methods of mathematical statistics and machine learning. Results. The authors describe the problem in the selection of objecvt-analogues and the existing approaches to its solution. …”
Get full text

Performance Management of Special Fund for Sports Industry Development in Jiangsu Province by Yang Wen, Xu Chen, Tianyi Gu, Fangliang Yu

“…Using the methods of literature, questionnaire, expert interview, and mathematical statistics, this paper takes the performance management of the special funds for the development of sports industry in Jiangsu Province as the research object, based on the investigation and analysis of the current situation of the special funds for the development of sports industry in Jiangsu Province. …”
Get full text

Bayesian Estimation of Resistance Factor for Bored Piles Based on Load Test Database by Zhijun Xu, Ranran Zhang, Liang Fan, Xing Han, Fang Yuan, Mingfang Du

“…This paper employs the Bayesian method and mathematical statistics theory to put forward an estimation method for updating in situ data. …”
Get full text

Impacts of noise and interference on the bit error rate of the FBMC-OQAM modulation scheme in 5G systems by A. Androon, O. V. Tikhonova

“…In the work, probability theory and mathematical statistics methods are applied according to computer modeling approaches.Results. …”
Get full text

Value orientations of vkontakte users with different strategies for meanings transferring by Pavel N. Ermakov, Ekaterina E. Belousova

“…Rokichs value orientations, methods of mathematical statistics (H-Kruskal-Wallis criterion, 22-criterion). …”
Get full text

Analysis of competing risks model using the generalized progressive hybrid censored data from the generalized Lomax distribution by Amal Hassan, Sudhansu Maiti, Rana Mousa, Najwan Alsadat, Mahmoued Abu-Moussa

Get full text

PEDAGOGICAL ASSISTANCE IN HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS’ PROFESSIONAL SELF–DETERMINATION by V. N. Kormakova, E. N. Musaelian, D. I. Ruziyeva

“…The solution of the problems and test assumptions have been provided with the help of the following methods: theoretical analysis of philosophical, psychological, sociological and pedagogical works; diagnostics; observation; archival research; taxonomic qualimetric; pilot, ascertaining and educational experiments; methods of mathematical statistics.Results. The research shows a positive change in creativity, reflexivity and values of high school students in experimental groups. …”
Get full text

Development of speed and strength abilities of children aged 12-13 years in physical education classes in the COVID-19 pandemic by Olena Nesen

“…The obtained results were analyzed by methods of mathematical statistics: correlation analysis was conducted to identify relationships between the results of control standards of schoolchildren, the reliability of the difference was determined by the Student's criterion. …”
Get full text