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    Direct Interval Prediction of Landslide Displacements Using Least Squares Support Vector Machines by Yankun Wang, Huiming Tang, Tao Wen, Junwei Ma

    Published 2020-01-01
    “…The Baishuihe landslide and the Tanjiahe landslide located on the shoreline of the Three Gorges Reservoir, China, are used to test the proposed approach. …”
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    Water and Sediment Process Variation in Jingjiang River in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River and Response Analysis of Flow Capacity of Three Outlets by SHEN Jian, YUAN Song

    Published 2024-01-01
    “…The Jingjiang reach of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is connected to Dongting Lake through three outlets,forming an extremely complex and far-reaching relationship between the rivers and lakes.The operation of the Three Gorges Project has changed the natural water and sediment process in the Jingjiang River downstream of the dam.This leads to “flattening” flood processes in the main stream,extended middle water period,and an increase in low flow,which has promoted the continuous response of the three outlets to the above water and sediment conditions.Meanwhile,this paper employs a series of long-term measured hydrological consolidation data and river channel terrain observation results from nearly 70 years.Based on this,the response characteristics of the three outlets to the water and sediment variation process of the Jingjiang River are analyzed,and the flow and sediment diversion,river regime,and erosion and sedimentation evolution laws in the entrance area are summarized.The results show that in the same inflow conditions before and after the operation of the Three Gorges Project,the diversion ratio of three outlets decreases,and the sediment diversion corresponds to the sediment from the upstream branch city.Additionally,the sediment diversion ratio continues its gradually increasing trend.After the impoundment and operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir,the riverbed of three outlets is generally in a state of erosion,with a total erosion amount of 51.47 million m<sup>3</sup> from 2003 to 2011 and 99 million m<sup>3</sup> from 2011 to 2016.The entrance areas have been expanded,but the actual flow capacity has not been significantly improved.…”
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    Prediction of Landslide Displacement Based on GreyRelational Analysis and VMD-SES-BP Model by AN Bei, JIANG Yanan, ZENG Qifei

    Published 2021-01-01
    “…Aiming at the “stepped” landslide displacement in the Three Gorges area,this paper proposes a new landslide displacement time series prediction model,namely VMD-SES-BP prediction model by combining variational mode decomposition (VMD),second exponential smoothing (SES),and BP neural network (BPNN);conducts the VMD of the GPS monitoring displacement data of landslide at Baishuihe River of the Three Gorges through this model to obtain the trend component and other sub-sequence components;makes rolling predictions of trend components by the SES,determines the influencing factors of other displacement components of the landslide through gray relational analysis (GRA),and learns and predicts by considering it as the training sample of BPNN.Comparing the prediction results of each component with the true value,the average relative error of prediction is 0.78%,the mean square error is 3.14 cm,and the correlation coefficient is 0.986.The experimental results show that the model is well applicable to the prediction of “stepped” landslide displacement,with high prediction accuracy,which provides a certain reference value for landslide displacement prediction.…”
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