Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar

Abstract The use of naturally available materials such as metakaolin (MK) can greatly reduce the utilization of emission intensive materials like cement in the construction sector. This would reduce the stress on depleting natural resources and foster a sustainable construction industry. However, th...

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Main Authors: Naseer Muhammad Khan, Liqiang Ma, Waleed Bin Inqiad, Muhammad Saud Khan, Imtiaz Iqbal, Muhammad Zaka Emad, Saad S. Alarifi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-06-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01327-1
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author Naseer Muhammad Khan
Liqiang Ma
Waleed Bin Inqiad
Muhammad Saud Khan
Imtiaz Iqbal
Muhammad Zaka Emad
Saad S. Alarifi
author_facet Naseer Muhammad Khan
Liqiang Ma
Waleed Bin Inqiad
Muhammad Saud Khan
Imtiaz Iqbal
Muhammad Zaka Emad
Saad S. Alarifi
author_sort Naseer Muhammad Khan
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The use of naturally available materials such as metakaolin (MK) can greatly reduce the utilization of emission intensive materials like cement in the construction sector. This would reduce the stress on depleting natural resources and foster a sustainable construction industry. However, the laboratory determination of 28 day compressive strength (C-S) of MK-based mortar is associated with several time and resource constraints. Thus, this study was conducted to develop reliable empirical prediction models to assess CS of MK-based mortar from its mixture proportion using machine learning algorithms like gene expression programming (GEP), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), multi expression programming (MEP), bagging regressor (BR), and AdaBoost etc. A comprehensive dataset compiled from published literature having five input parameters including water-to-binder ratio, mortar age, and maximum aggregate diameter etc. was used for this purpose. The developed models were validated by means of error metrics, residual assessment, and external validation checks which revealed that XGB is the most accurate algorithm having testing $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ of 0.998 followed by BR having $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ values equal to 0.946 while MEP had the lowest testing $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ of 0.893. However, MEP and GEP algorithms expressed their output in the form of empirical equations which other black-box algorithms couldn’t produce. Moreover, interpretable machine learning approaches including shapely additive explanatory analysis (SHAP), individual conditional expectation (ICE), and partial dependence plots (PDP) were conducted on the XGB model which highlighted that water-to-binder ratio and sample age are some of the most significant variables to predict the C-S of MK-based cement mortars. Finally, a graphical user interface (GUI) was made for implementation of findings of this study in the civil engineering industry.
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spelling doaj-art-ff0bd2103a1e4aa78aa218bf12e51a802025-08-20T02:05:40ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-06-0115113010.1038/s41598-025-01327-1Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortarNaseer Muhammad Khan0Liqiang Ma1Waleed Bin Inqiad2Muhammad Saud Khan3Imtiaz Iqbal4Muhammad Zaka Emad5Saad S. Alarifi6Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Coal-bearing Resources Exploration and Exploitation, Xinjiang Institute of EngineeringXinjiang Key Laboratory of Coal-bearing Resources Exploration and Exploitation, Xinjiang Institute of EngineeringDepartment of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering & Physical Sciences, Aston UniversityDepartment of Civil Engineering, Price Faculty of Engineering, University of ManitobaDepartment of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering & Physical Sciences, Aston University Department of Petroleum Engineering , King Fahd University of Petroleum and MineralsDepartment of Geology and Geophysics, College of Science, King Saud UniversityAbstract The use of naturally available materials such as metakaolin (MK) can greatly reduce the utilization of emission intensive materials like cement in the construction sector. This would reduce the stress on depleting natural resources and foster a sustainable construction industry. However, the laboratory determination of 28 day compressive strength (C-S) of MK-based mortar is associated with several time and resource constraints. Thus, this study was conducted to develop reliable empirical prediction models to assess CS of MK-based mortar from its mixture proportion using machine learning algorithms like gene expression programming (GEP), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), multi expression programming (MEP), bagging regressor (BR), and AdaBoost etc. A comprehensive dataset compiled from published literature having five input parameters including water-to-binder ratio, mortar age, and maximum aggregate diameter etc. was used for this purpose. The developed models were validated by means of error metrics, residual assessment, and external validation checks which revealed that XGB is the most accurate algorithm having testing $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ of 0.998 followed by BR having $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ values equal to 0.946 while MEP had the lowest testing $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ of 0.893. However, MEP and GEP algorithms expressed their output in the form of empirical equations which other black-box algorithms couldn’t produce. Moreover, interpretable machine learning approaches including shapely additive explanatory analysis (SHAP), individual conditional expectation (ICE), and partial dependence plots (PDP) were conducted on the XGB model which highlighted that water-to-binder ratio and sample age are some of the most significant variables to predict the C-S of MK-based cement mortars. Finally, a graphical user interface (GUI) was made for implementation of findings of this study in the civil engineering industry.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01327-1Cement mortarMetakaolinInterpretable machine learningGene expression programmingCompressive strength
spellingShingle Naseer Muhammad Khan
Liqiang Ma
Waleed Bin Inqiad
Muhammad Saud Khan
Imtiaz Iqbal
Muhammad Zaka Emad
Saad S. Alarifi
Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar
Scientific Reports
Cement mortar
Metakaolin
Interpretable machine learning
Gene expression programming
Compressive strength
title Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar
title_full Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar
title_fullStr Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar
title_full_unstemmed Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar
title_short Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar
title_sort interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar
topic Cement mortar
Metakaolin
Interpretable machine learning
Gene expression programming
Compressive strength
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01327-1
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