Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar
Abstract The use of naturally available materials such as metakaolin (MK) can greatly reduce the utilization of emission intensive materials like cement in the construction sector. This would reduce the stress on depleting natural resources and foster a sustainable construction industry. However, th...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01327-1 |
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| author | Naseer Muhammad Khan Liqiang Ma Waleed Bin Inqiad Muhammad Saud Khan Imtiaz Iqbal Muhammad Zaka Emad Saad S. Alarifi |
| author_facet | Naseer Muhammad Khan Liqiang Ma Waleed Bin Inqiad Muhammad Saud Khan Imtiaz Iqbal Muhammad Zaka Emad Saad S. Alarifi |
| author_sort | Naseer Muhammad Khan |
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| description | Abstract The use of naturally available materials such as metakaolin (MK) can greatly reduce the utilization of emission intensive materials like cement in the construction sector. This would reduce the stress on depleting natural resources and foster a sustainable construction industry. However, the laboratory determination of 28 day compressive strength (C-S) of MK-based mortar is associated with several time and resource constraints. Thus, this study was conducted to develop reliable empirical prediction models to assess CS of MK-based mortar from its mixture proportion using machine learning algorithms like gene expression programming (GEP), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), multi expression programming (MEP), bagging regressor (BR), and AdaBoost etc. A comprehensive dataset compiled from published literature having five input parameters including water-to-binder ratio, mortar age, and maximum aggregate diameter etc. was used for this purpose. The developed models were validated by means of error metrics, residual assessment, and external validation checks which revealed that XGB is the most accurate algorithm having testing $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ of 0.998 followed by BR having $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ values equal to 0.946 while MEP had the lowest testing $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ of 0.893. However, MEP and GEP algorithms expressed their output in the form of empirical equations which other black-box algorithms couldn’t produce. Moreover, interpretable machine learning approaches including shapely additive explanatory analysis (SHAP), individual conditional expectation (ICE), and partial dependence plots (PDP) were conducted on the XGB model which highlighted that water-to-binder ratio and sample age are some of the most significant variables to predict the C-S of MK-based cement mortars. Finally, a graphical user interface (GUI) was made for implementation of findings of this study in the civil engineering industry. |
| format | Article |
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| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-ff0bd2103a1e4aa78aa218bf12e51a802025-08-20T02:05:40ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-06-0115113010.1038/s41598-025-01327-1Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortarNaseer Muhammad Khan0Liqiang Ma1Waleed Bin Inqiad2Muhammad Saud Khan3Imtiaz Iqbal4Muhammad Zaka Emad5Saad S. Alarifi6Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Coal-bearing Resources Exploration and Exploitation, Xinjiang Institute of EngineeringXinjiang Key Laboratory of Coal-bearing Resources Exploration and Exploitation, Xinjiang Institute of EngineeringDepartment of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering & Physical Sciences, Aston UniversityDepartment of Civil Engineering, Price Faculty of Engineering, University of ManitobaDepartment of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering & Physical Sciences, Aston University Department of Petroleum Engineering , King Fahd University of Petroleum and MineralsDepartment of Geology and Geophysics, College of Science, King Saud UniversityAbstract The use of naturally available materials such as metakaolin (MK) can greatly reduce the utilization of emission intensive materials like cement in the construction sector. This would reduce the stress on depleting natural resources and foster a sustainable construction industry. However, the laboratory determination of 28 day compressive strength (C-S) of MK-based mortar is associated with several time and resource constraints. Thus, this study was conducted to develop reliable empirical prediction models to assess CS of MK-based mortar from its mixture proportion using machine learning algorithms like gene expression programming (GEP), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), multi expression programming (MEP), bagging regressor (BR), and AdaBoost etc. A comprehensive dataset compiled from published literature having five input parameters including water-to-binder ratio, mortar age, and maximum aggregate diameter etc. was used for this purpose. The developed models were validated by means of error metrics, residual assessment, and external validation checks which revealed that XGB is the most accurate algorithm having testing $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ of 0.998 followed by BR having $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ values equal to 0.946 while MEP had the lowest testing $$\:{\text{R}}^{2}$$ of 0.893. However, MEP and GEP algorithms expressed their output in the form of empirical equations which other black-box algorithms couldn’t produce. Moreover, interpretable machine learning approaches including shapely additive explanatory analysis (SHAP), individual conditional expectation (ICE), and partial dependence plots (PDP) were conducted on the XGB model which highlighted that water-to-binder ratio and sample age are some of the most significant variables to predict the C-S of MK-based cement mortars. Finally, a graphical user interface (GUI) was made for implementation of findings of this study in the civil engineering industry.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01327-1Cement mortarMetakaolinInterpretable machine learningGene expression programmingCompressive strength |
| spellingShingle | Naseer Muhammad Khan Liqiang Ma Waleed Bin Inqiad Muhammad Saud Khan Imtiaz Iqbal Muhammad Zaka Emad Saad S. Alarifi Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar Scientific Reports Cement mortar Metakaolin Interpretable machine learning Gene expression programming Compressive strength |
| title | Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar |
| title_full | Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar |
| title_fullStr | Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar |
| title_full_unstemmed | Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar |
| title_short | Interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar |
| title_sort | interpretable machine learning approaches to assess the compressive strength of metakaolin blended sustainable cement mortar |
| topic | Cement mortar Metakaolin Interpretable machine learning Gene expression programming Compressive strength |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01327-1 |
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