Heatwave warnings mitigate long-term cardiovascular diseases risk from heat-related illness: a real-world prospective cohort studyResearch in context
Summary: Background: Global warming is intensifying, exacerbating associated health issues. Heat-related illness, a critical risk during heatwaves, significantly impacts public health, yet its long-term health effects remain poorly understood. We established a cohort to investigate these health imp...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606525000057 |
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| author | Qi Huang Limei Ke Linfeng Liu Yuyang Liu Yanjun Li Guoqing Feng Bo Yin Wenxin Xiang Jiarun Li Keyi Lyu Miao Wang Qiannan Tian Liqun Wu Xiaofeng He Wannian Liang Huatang Zeng Jiming Zhu Kuiying Gu Qian Di |
| author_facet | Qi Huang Limei Ke Linfeng Liu Yuyang Liu Yanjun Li Guoqing Feng Bo Yin Wenxin Xiang Jiarun Li Keyi Lyu Miao Wang Qiannan Tian Liqun Wu Xiaofeng He Wannian Liang Huatang Zeng Jiming Zhu Kuiying Gu Qian Di |
| author_sort | Qi Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: Global warming is intensifying, exacerbating associated health issues. Heat-related illness, a critical risk during heatwaves, significantly impacts public health, yet its long-term health effects remain poorly understood. We established a cohort to investigate these health impact and explore the mitigative role of heatwave warnings. Methods: Our cohort study enrolled 9,658,745 participants free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline from 1332 hospitals and 922 primary care centres in Shenzhen, China. The cohort was observed and followed up from January 1, 2017, to July 31, 2023. We utilized Cox proportional hazards model to analyse CVD incidence among participants who had heat-related illness versus those who did not, and further assessed causal relationship using instrumental variable approach. We employed stratified logistic regression to explore the protective effects of heatwave warning policies. Findings: Among 9,658,745 participants followed up to 6 years, 238,278 (2.47%) developed CVD. People who developed CVD were generally older, male, with a higher degree of education, and with more hospital admissions before baseline. Heat-related illness was associated with CVD, with a hazard ratio of CVD 2.526 (95% CI = 2.301–2.773) among patients with heat-related illness compared with those without heat-related illness, and instrumental variable approach analysis suggested causation. Issuing heatwave warnings reduced hospital admissions for heat-related illness (OR [95% CI] = 0.902 [0.832–0.977]) and future CVD risk (OR [95% CI] = 0.964 [0.946–0.982]). The mitigative role of heatwave warnings suggested delayed effect, with mitigative effect at greatest magnitude one to two days after issuance for heat-related illness admission and three to four days for CVD. Interpretation: Our study suggested that heat-related illness has significant long-term impacts on future CVD incidence, which can be mitigated by heatwave warnings. Funding: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42277419), the Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen (No. SZSM202111001), and the Research Fund of Vanke School of Public Health in Tsinghua University. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fe0437a534cb40edb015134a9e6a5b45 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2666-6065 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific |
| spelling | doaj-art-fe0437a534cb40edb015134a9e6a5b452025-01-25T04:11:27ZengElsevierThe Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific2666-60652025-02-0155101468Heatwave warnings mitigate long-term cardiovascular diseases risk from heat-related illness: a real-world prospective cohort studyResearch in contextQi Huang0Limei Ke1Linfeng Liu2Yuyang Liu3Yanjun Li4Guoqing Feng5Bo Yin6Wenxin Xiang7Jiarun Li8Keyi Lyu9Miao Wang10Qiannan Tian11Liqun Wu12Xiaofeng He13Wannian Liang14Huatang Zeng15Jiming Zhu16Kuiying Gu17Qian Di18Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaSchool of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; School of Biomedical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaSchool of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; School of Biomedical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaGuangming District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, 518106, ChinaVanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaSchool of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; School of Biomedical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaSchool of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; School of Biomedical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaSchool of Medicine, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; School of Biomedical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaVanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaInformation Technology & Security Test and Evaluation Center, The Fifteenth Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation, Beijing, 518000, ChinaVanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaShenzhen Health Development Research and Data Management Center, Shenzhen, 518000, ChinaShenzhen Health Development Research and Data Management Center, Shenzhen, 518000, ChinaShenzhen Health Development Research and Data Management Center, Shenzhen, 518000, ChinaVanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Institute for Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaShenzhen Health Development Research and Data Management Center, Shenzhen, 518000, ChinaVanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Institute for Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Soochow University, Suzhou, 215006, China; Corresponding author.Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Institute for Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Corresponding author. Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.Summary: Background: Global warming is intensifying, exacerbating associated health issues. Heat-related illness, a critical risk during heatwaves, significantly impacts public health, yet its long-term health effects remain poorly understood. We established a cohort to investigate these health impact and explore the mitigative role of heatwave warnings. Methods: Our cohort study enrolled 9,658,745 participants free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at baseline from 1332 hospitals and 922 primary care centres in Shenzhen, China. The cohort was observed and followed up from January 1, 2017, to July 31, 2023. We utilized Cox proportional hazards model to analyse CVD incidence among participants who had heat-related illness versus those who did not, and further assessed causal relationship using instrumental variable approach. We employed stratified logistic regression to explore the protective effects of heatwave warning policies. Findings: Among 9,658,745 participants followed up to 6 years, 238,278 (2.47%) developed CVD. People who developed CVD were generally older, male, with a higher degree of education, and with more hospital admissions before baseline. Heat-related illness was associated with CVD, with a hazard ratio of CVD 2.526 (95% CI = 2.301–2.773) among patients with heat-related illness compared with those without heat-related illness, and instrumental variable approach analysis suggested causation. Issuing heatwave warnings reduced hospital admissions for heat-related illness (OR [95% CI] = 0.902 [0.832–0.977]) and future CVD risk (OR [95% CI] = 0.964 [0.946–0.982]). The mitigative role of heatwave warnings suggested delayed effect, with mitigative effect at greatest magnitude one to two days after issuance for heat-related illness admission and three to four days for CVD. Interpretation: Our study suggested that heat-related illness has significant long-term impacts on future CVD incidence, which can be mitigated by heatwave warnings. Funding: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42277419), the Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen (No. SZSM202111001), and the Research Fund of Vanke School of Public Health in Tsinghua University.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606525000057Heat-related illnessCardiovascular diseaseInstrumental variableHeatwave warnings |
| spellingShingle | Qi Huang Limei Ke Linfeng Liu Yuyang Liu Yanjun Li Guoqing Feng Bo Yin Wenxin Xiang Jiarun Li Keyi Lyu Miao Wang Qiannan Tian Liqun Wu Xiaofeng He Wannian Liang Huatang Zeng Jiming Zhu Kuiying Gu Qian Di Heatwave warnings mitigate long-term cardiovascular diseases risk from heat-related illness: a real-world prospective cohort studyResearch in context The Lancet Regional Health. Western Pacific Heat-related illness Cardiovascular disease Instrumental variable Heatwave warnings |
| title | Heatwave warnings mitigate long-term cardiovascular diseases risk from heat-related illness: a real-world prospective cohort studyResearch in context |
| title_full | Heatwave warnings mitigate long-term cardiovascular diseases risk from heat-related illness: a real-world prospective cohort studyResearch in context |
| title_fullStr | Heatwave warnings mitigate long-term cardiovascular diseases risk from heat-related illness: a real-world prospective cohort studyResearch in context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Heatwave warnings mitigate long-term cardiovascular diseases risk from heat-related illness: a real-world prospective cohort studyResearch in context |
| title_short | Heatwave warnings mitigate long-term cardiovascular diseases risk from heat-related illness: a real-world prospective cohort studyResearch in context |
| title_sort | heatwave warnings mitigate long term cardiovascular diseases risk from heat related illness a real world prospective cohort studyresearch in context |
| topic | Heat-related illness Cardiovascular disease Instrumental variable Heatwave warnings |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606525000057 |
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