Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methods
Air temperature is one of the most frequently used parameters in the assessment of climate change at global and regional scale. So researchers have tried to modeling and predicting it with different models. This study also aims to model and predict the country's monthly minimum and maximum temp...
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Kharazmi University
2016-12-01
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| Series: | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
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| Online Access: | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2710-en.pdf |
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| author | Ahmad reza ghasemi |
| author_facet | Ahmad reza ghasemi |
| author_sort | Ahmad reza ghasemi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Air temperature is one of the most frequently used parameters in the assessment of climate change at global and regional scale. So researchers have tried to modeling and predicting it with different models. This study also aims to model and predict the country's monthly minimum and maximum temperature. Investigates of temporal temperature changes is done by Sen’s estimator and Pettit method and predicting made by Holt-Winters model. The results indicated that the minimum temperature during 1961 to 2010 increased by 2.9º C . This rate is more in stations located in the warm and dry regions (3.1°C) than any other stations (1.8°C). While the maximum temperature gradient changes are lower and is about 2.1°C. The results also confirmed the performance of Holt-Winter's forecasting model. Beside a few exceptions, the minimum and maximum temperature will be increased until 2020. The highest increase of temperature will occur in Khoy, so that the minimum and maximum temperature will be increased about 0.6°C and 0.28°C, respectively. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fd3861cd13a84f659e06b92ba151f452 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2228-7736 2588-5138 |
| language | fas |
| publishDate | 2016-12-01 |
| publisher | Kharazmi University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
| spelling | doaj-art-fd3861cd13a84f659e06b92ba151f4522025-01-31T17:23:25ZfasKharazmi Universityتحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی2228-77362588-51382016-12-011643724Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methodsAhmad reza ghasemi0 Air temperature is one of the most frequently used parameters in the assessment of climate change at global and regional scale. So researchers have tried to modeling and predicting it with different models. This study also aims to model and predict the country's monthly minimum and maximum temperature. Investigates of temporal temperature changes is done by Sen’s estimator and Pettit method and predicting made by Holt-Winters model. The results indicated that the minimum temperature during 1961 to 2010 increased by 2.9º C . This rate is more in stations located in the warm and dry regions (3.1°C) than any other stations (1.8°C). While the maximum temperature gradient changes are lower and is about 2.1°C. The results also confirmed the performance of Holt-Winter's forecasting model. Beside a few exceptions, the minimum and maximum temperature will be increased until 2020. The highest increase of temperature will occur in Khoy, so that the minimum and maximum temperature will be increased about 0.6°C and 0.28°C, respectively.http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2710-en.pdftemperature predictingminimum and maximum temperaturesen’s estimatorpettittehalt- winters model |
| spellingShingle | Ahmad reza ghasemi Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methods تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی temperature predicting minimum and maximum temperature sen’s estimator pettitte halt- winters model |
| title | Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methods |
| title_full | Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methods |
| title_fullStr | Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methods |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methods |
| title_short | Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methods |
| title_sort | modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in iran by bettitt and holt winters methods |
| topic | temperature predicting minimum and maximum temperature sen’s estimator pettitte halt- winters model |
| url | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2710-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ahmadrezaghasemi modelingfeasibilityandpredictionofminimumandmaximumtemperatureiniranbybettittandholtwintersmethods |