Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories

Abstract Reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea L.) is one of the most common invaders of floodplains and wetlands in North America. In the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, invasion by reed canarygrass in forest understories can inhibit forest regeneration when gaps form in the overstory. Underst...

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Main Authors: John T. Delaney, M. Van Appledorn, N. R. De Jager, K. L. Bouska, J. J. Rohweder
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2024-12-01
Series:Ecosphere
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70138
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author John T. Delaney
M. Van Appledorn
N. R. De Jager
K. L. Bouska
J. J. Rohweder
author_facet John T. Delaney
M. Van Appledorn
N. R. De Jager
K. L. Bouska
J. J. Rohweder
author_sort John T. Delaney
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea L.) is one of the most common invaders of floodplains and wetlands in North America. In the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, invasion by reed canarygrass in forest understories can inhibit forest regeneration when gaps form in the overstory. Understanding the distribution of reed canarygrass in forest understories is essential for effective management and control. We used an ensemble of species distribution models including Bayesian additive regression trees, boosted trees, and random forest algorithms to predict habitat suitability for reed canarygrass in forest understories across the Upper Mississippi River floodplain (~41,000 ha). Data from forest inventory study plots with reed canarygrass presence and absence were combined with 10 hypothesized environmental predictors of reed canarygrass invasion. We applied three approaches to better understand and incorporate the influence of spatial autocorrelation among our predictor variables, including random cross‐validation, spatial cross‐validation, and spatial cross‐validation with Euclidean distance fields. Flood frequency, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to forest edge, and distance to invaded wet meadow were among the most important environmental predictors across the three algorithms. Generally, the mean probability of reed canarygrass presence decreased with increasing flood depth, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to invaded wet meadow, forest cover, and forest height, while relationships with other predictors were more variable. The ensemble of the three models (i.e., the average prediction) was used to map and summarize potential reed canary grass habitat suitability across the landscape. The maps generated quantified the habitat suitability for reed canarygrass and areas of agreement among the models in forest understories across the floodplain. This information can be used to better understand the extent of invasion, prioritize restoration efforts, and develop further research.
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spelling doaj-art-fb07be0ade054a62b75aac7ca1019ea62025-01-27T14:51:33ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252024-12-011512n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.70138Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understoriesJohn T. Delaney0M. Van Appledorn1N. R. De Jager2K. L. Bouska3J. J. Rohweder4U.S. Geological Survey La Crosse Wisconsin USAU.S. Geological Survey La Crosse Wisconsin USAU.S. Geological Survey La Crosse Wisconsin USAU.S. Geological Survey La Crosse Wisconsin USAU.S. Geological Survey La Crosse Wisconsin USAAbstract Reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea L.) is one of the most common invaders of floodplains and wetlands in North America. In the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, invasion by reed canarygrass in forest understories can inhibit forest regeneration when gaps form in the overstory. Understanding the distribution of reed canarygrass in forest understories is essential for effective management and control. We used an ensemble of species distribution models including Bayesian additive regression trees, boosted trees, and random forest algorithms to predict habitat suitability for reed canarygrass in forest understories across the Upper Mississippi River floodplain (~41,000 ha). Data from forest inventory study plots with reed canarygrass presence and absence were combined with 10 hypothesized environmental predictors of reed canarygrass invasion. We applied three approaches to better understand and incorporate the influence of spatial autocorrelation among our predictor variables, including random cross‐validation, spatial cross‐validation, and spatial cross‐validation with Euclidean distance fields. Flood frequency, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to forest edge, and distance to invaded wet meadow were among the most important environmental predictors across the three algorithms. Generally, the mean probability of reed canarygrass presence decreased with increasing flood depth, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to invaded wet meadow, forest cover, and forest height, while relationships with other predictors were more variable. The ensemble of the three models (i.e., the average prediction) was used to map and summarize potential reed canary grass habitat suitability across the landscape. The maps generated quantified the habitat suitability for reed canarygrass and areas of agreement among the models in forest understories across the floodplain. This information can be used to better understand the extent of invasion, prioritize restoration efforts, and develop further research.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70138ensemble modelingEuclidean distance fieldsfloodplain forest invasionhabitat suitability modelingPhalaris arundinaceareed canarygrass
spellingShingle John T. Delaney
M. Van Appledorn
N. R. De Jager
K. L. Bouska
J. J. Rohweder
Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories
Ecosphere
ensemble modeling
Euclidean distance fields
floodplain forest invasion
habitat suitability modeling
Phalaris arundinacea
reed canarygrass
title Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories
title_full Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories
title_fullStr Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories
title_full_unstemmed Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories
title_short Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories
title_sort spatial differences in predicted phalaris arundinacea reed canarygrass occurrence in floodplain forest understories
topic ensemble modeling
Euclidean distance fields
floodplain forest invasion
habitat suitability modeling
Phalaris arundinacea
reed canarygrass
url https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70138
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