Prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in Córdoba, Colombia
We present a modeling strategy to forecast the incidence rate of dengue in the department of Córdoba, Colombia, thereby considering the effect of climate variables. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model is fitted under a cross-validation a...
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AIMS Press
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2024341 |
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| author | Ever Medina Myladis R Cogollo Gilberto González-Parra |
| author_facet | Ever Medina Myladis R Cogollo Gilberto González-Parra |
| author_sort | Ever Medina |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We present a modeling strategy to forecast the incidence rate of dengue in the department of Córdoba, Colombia, thereby considering the effect of climate variables. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model is fitted under a cross-validation approach, and we examine the effect of the exogenous variables on the performance of the model. This study uses data of dengue cases, precipitation, and relative humidity reported from years 2007 to 2021. We consider three configurations of sizes training set-test set: 182-13,189-6, and 192-3. The results support the theory of the relationship between precipitation, relative humidity, and dengue incidence rate. We find that the performance of the models improves when the time series models are previously adjusted for each of the exogenous variables, and their forecasts are used to determine the future values of the dengue incidence rate. Additionally, we find that the configurations 189-6 and 192-3 present the most consistent results with regard to the model's performance in the training and test data sets. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fae9956c10db4180b89be1bb358447f9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1551-0018 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-fae9956c10db4180b89be1bb358447f92025-01-23T05:05:30ZengAIMS PressMathematical Biosciences and Engineering1551-00182024-12-0121127760778210.3934/mbe.2024341Prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in Córdoba, ColombiaEver Medina0Myladis R Cogollo1Gilberto González-Parra2Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba, Monteria 230002, ColombiaDepartamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba, Monteria 230002, ColombiaDepartment of Mathematics, New Mexico Tech, New Mexico 87801, USAWe present a modeling strategy to forecast the incidence rate of dengue in the department of Córdoba, Colombia, thereby considering the effect of climate variables. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model is fitted under a cross-validation approach, and we examine the effect of the exogenous variables on the performance of the model. This study uses data of dengue cases, precipitation, and relative humidity reported from years 2007 to 2021. We consider three configurations of sizes training set-test set: 182-13,189-6, and 192-3. The results support the theory of the relationship between precipitation, relative humidity, and dengue incidence rate. We find that the performance of the models improves when the time series models are previously adjusted for each of the exogenous variables, and their forecasts are used to determine the future values of the dengue incidence rate. Additionally, we find that the configurations 189-6 and 192-3 present the most consistent results with regard to the model's performance in the training and test data sets.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2024341dengueclimate variablestime seriesincidence ratesarimaxexogenous variables |
| spellingShingle | Ever Medina Myladis R Cogollo Gilberto González-Parra Prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in Córdoba, Colombia Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering dengue climate variables time series incidence rate sarimax exogenous variables |
| title | Prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in Córdoba, Colombia |
| title_full | Prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in Córdoba, Colombia |
| title_fullStr | Prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in Córdoba, Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in Córdoba, Colombia |
| title_short | Prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in Córdoba, Colombia |
| title_sort | prescriptive temporal modeling approach using climate variables to forecast dengue incidence in cordoba colombia |
| topic | dengue climate variables time series incidence rate sarimax exogenous variables |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2024341 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT evermedina prescriptivetemporalmodelingapproachusingclimatevariablestoforecastdengueincidenceincordobacolombia AT myladisrcogollo prescriptivetemporalmodelingapproachusingclimatevariablestoforecastdengueincidenceincordobacolombia AT gilbertogonzalezparra prescriptivetemporalmodelingapproachusingclimatevariablestoforecastdengueincidenceincordobacolombia |