Fitting Probability Distributions and Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall of Agro-climatic Zone of West Bengal
This research aimed to identify the most appropriate probability distribution for modeling average monthly rainfall in the agro-climatic zones of West Bengal and to detect any trends in this data. The study utilized historical rainfall data spanning 51 years (1970-2020) obtained from the IMD in Pune...
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| Language: | English |
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Technoscience Publications
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Nature Environment and Pollution Technology |
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| Online Access: | https://neptjournal.com/upload-images/(51)B-4160.pdf |
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| author | Bhawishya Pradhan, Banjul Bhattacharyya, N. Elakkiya and T. Gowthaman |
| author_facet | Bhawishya Pradhan, Banjul Bhattacharyya, N. Elakkiya and T. Gowthaman |
| author_sort | Bhawishya Pradhan, Banjul Bhattacharyya, N. Elakkiya and T. Gowthaman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This research aimed to identify the most appropriate probability distribution for modeling average monthly rainfall in the agro-climatic zones of West Bengal and to detect any trends in this data. The study utilized historical rainfall data spanning 51 years (1970-2020) obtained from the IMD in Pune. To determine the best-fitting distribution and assess trends, 23 different probability distributions were employed, with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator used for trend analysis. Goodness-of-fit tests, including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-square tests, were employed to determine the most suitable distribution. The findings indicated that the Generalized Extreme Value, Gamma, and Lognormal (3-parameter) distributions were the best fits for two specific districts. The monthly rainfall distributions can be effectively used for predicting future monthly rainfall events in the region. The Mann-Kendall test revealed an increasing trend in rainfall for Kalimpong and Nadia Districts and a decreasing trend for Malda District. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f955d048b08c4344bd49c37c0c388d0b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0972-6268 2395-3454 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Technoscience Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Environment and Pollution Technology |
| spelling | doaj-art-f955d048b08c4344bd49c37c0c388d0b2025-01-20T07:13:36ZengTechnoscience PublicationsNature Environment and Pollution Technology0972-62682395-34542024-12-012342453246010.46488/NEPT.2024.v23i04.051Fitting Probability Distributions and Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall of Agro-climatic Zone of West BengalBhawishya Pradhan, Banjul Bhattacharyya, N. Elakkiya and T. GowthamanThis research aimed to identify the most appropriate probability distribution for modeling average monthly rainfall in the agro-climatic zones of West Bengal and to detect any trends in this data. The study utilized historical rainfall data spanning 51 years (1970-2020) obtained from the IMD in Pune. To determine the best-fitting distribution and assess trends, 23 different probability distributions were employed, with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator used for trend analysis. Goodness-of-fit tests, including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Chi-square tests, were employed to determine the most suitable distribution. The findings indicated that the Generalized Extreme Value, Gamma, and Lognormal (3-parameter) distributions were the best fits for two specific districts. The monthly rainfall distributions can be effectively used for predicting future monthly rainfall events in the region. The Mann-Kendall test revealed an increasing trend in rainfall for Kalimpong and Nadia Districts and a decreasing trend for Malda District.https://neptjournal.com/upload-images/(51)B-4160.pdfrainfall, probability distribution, mann-kendall test, agro-climatic zones |
| spellingShingle | Bhawishya Pradhan, Banjul Bhattacharyya, N. Elakkiya and T. Gowthaman Fitting Probability Distributions and Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall of Agro-climatic Zone of West Bengal Nature Environment and Pollution Technology rainfall, probability distribution, mann-kendall test, agro-climatic zones |
| title | Fitting Probability Distributions and Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall of Agro-climatic Zone of West Bengal |
| title_full | Fitting Probability Distributions and Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall of Agro-climatic Zone of West Bengal |
| title_fullStr | Fitting Probability Distributions and Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall of Agro-climatic Zone of West Bengal |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fitting Probability Distributions and Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall of Agro-climatic Zone of West Bengal |
| title_short | Fitting Probability Distributions and Statistical Trend Analysis of Rainfall of Agro-climatic Zone of West Bengal |
| title_sort | fitting probability distributions and statistical trend analysis of rainfall of agro climatic zone of west bengal |
| topic | rainfall, probability distribution, mann-kendall test, agro-climatic zones |
| url | https://neptjournal.com/upload-images/(51)B-4160.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bhawishyapradhanbanjulbhattacharyyanelakkiyaandtgowthaman fittingprobabilitydistributionsandstatisticaltrendanalysisofrainfallofagroclimaticzoneofwestbengal |