Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns
A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells, or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the recurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulat...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Complexity |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915 |
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| _version_ | 1832553303153573888 |
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| author | Pascal Yiou Julien Cattiaux Aurélien Ribes Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac |
| author_facet | Pascal Yiou Julien Cattiaux Aurélien Ribes Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac |
| author_sort | Pascal Yiou |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells, or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the recurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulation. This paper presents a set of diagnostics of the intra- and interannual recurrence of atmospheric patterns. Those diagnostics are devised to detect trends in the stability of the circulation and the return period of atmospheric patterns. We detect significant emerging trends in the winter circulation, pointing towards a potential increased predictability. No such signal seems to emerge in the summer. We find that the winter trends in the dominating atmospheric patterns and their recurrences do not depend of the patterns themselves. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f79fbdfdf5364fb49ff6a1d43b2681e6 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1076-2787 1099-0526 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Complexity |
| spelling | doaj-art-f79fbdfdf5364fb49ff6a1d43b2681e62025-02-03T05:54:23ZengWileyComplexity1076-27871099-05262018-01-01201810.1155/2018/31409153140915Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation PatternsPascal Yiou0Julien Cattiaux1Aurélien Ribes2Robert Vautard3Mathieu Vrac4Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, CE l’Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, FranceCentre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589 CNRS-Météo-France, 42 avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, FranceCentre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589 CNRS-Météo-France, 42 avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, CE l’Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, FranceLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL & U Paris-Saclay, CE l’Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, FranceA few types of extreme climate events in the North Atlantic region, such as heatwaves, cold spells, or high cumulated precipitation, are connected to the recurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns. Understanding those extreme events requires assessing long-term trends of the atmospheric circulation. This paper presents a set of diagnostics of the intra- and interannual recurrence of atmospheric patterns. Those diagnostics are devised to detect trends in the stability of the circulation and the return period of atmospheric patterns. We detect significant emerging trends in the winter circulation, pointing towards a potential increased predictability. No such signal seems to emerge in the summer. We find that the winter trends in the dominating atmospheric patterns and their recurrences do not depend of the patterns themselves.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915 |
| spellingShingle | Pascal Yiou Julien Cattiaux Aurélien Ribes Robert Vautard Mathieu Vrac Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Complexity |
| title | Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
| title_full | Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
| title_fullStr | Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
| title_full_unstemmed | Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
| title_short | Recent Trends in the Recurrence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation Patterns |
| title_sort | recent trends in the recurrence of north atlantic atmospheric circulation patterns |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2018/3140915 |
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