Quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whale
Abstract Understanding the causes of mortality for a declining species is essential for developing effective conservation and management strategies, particularly when anthropogenic activities are the primary threat. Using a competing hazards framework allows for robust estimation of the cause‐specif...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Ecosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70086 |
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| author | Daniel W. Linden Jeffrey A. Hostetler Richard M. Pace III Lance P. Garrison Amy R. Knowlton Véronique Lesage Rob Williams Michael C. Runge |
| author_facet | Daniel W. Linden Jeffrey A. Hostetler Richard M. Pace III Lance P. Garrison Amy R. Knowlton Véronique Lesage Rob Williams Michael C. Runge |
| author_sort | Daniel W. Linden |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Understanding the causes of mortality for a declining species is essential for developing effective conservation and management strategies, particularly when anthropogenic activities are the primary threat. Using a competing hazards framework allows for robust estimation of the cause‐specific variation in risk that may exist across multiple dimensions, such as time and individual. Here, we estimated cause‐specific rates of severe injury and mortality for North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), a critically endangered species that is currently in peril due to human‐caused interactions. We developed a multistate capture–recapture model that leveraged 30 years of intensive survey effort yielding sightings of individuals with injury assessments and necropsies of carcass recoveries. We examined variation in the hazard rates of severe injury and mortality due to entanglements in fishing gear and vessel strikes as explained by temporal patterns and the age and reproductive status of the individual. We found strong evidence for increased rates of severe entanglement injuries after 2013 and for females with calves, with consequently higher marginal mortality. The model results also suggested that despite vessel strikes causing a lower average rate of severe injuries, the higher mortality rate conditional on injury results in significant total mortality risk, particularly for females resting from a recent calving event. Large uncertainty in the estimation of carcass recovery rate for vessel strike deaths permeated into the apportionment of mortality causes. The increased rates of North Atlantic right whale mortality in the last decade, particularly for reproducing females, has been responsible for the severe decline in the species. By apportioning the human‐caused threats using a quantitative approach with estimation of relevant uncertainty, this work can guide development of conservation and management strategies to facilitate species recovery. Our approach is relevant to other monitored populations where cause‐specific injuries from multiple threats can be observed in live and dead individuals. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f67f9ad2b43846359c2732566a05f8a9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2150-8925 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-f67f9ad2b43846359c2732566a05f8a92025-01-27T14:51:33ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252024-12-011512n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.70086Quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whaleDaniel W. Linden0Jeffrey A. Hostetler1Richard M. Pace III2Lance P. Garrison3Amy R. Knowlton4Véronique Lesage5Rob Williams6Michael C. Runge7NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center Woods Hole Massachusetts USAU.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center Laurel Maryland USANOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center Woods Hole Massachusetts USANOAA National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center Miami Florida USANew England Aquarium, Anderson Cabot Center for Ocean Life Boston Massachusetts USAFisheries and Oceans Canada, Maurice Lamontagne Institute Mont‐Joli Quebec CanadaOceans Initiative Seattle Washington USAU.S. Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center Laurel Maryland USAAbstract Understanding the causes of mortality for a declining species is essential for developing effective conservation and management strategies, particularly when anthropogenic activities are the primary threat. Using a competing hazards framework allows for robust estimation of the cause‐specific variation in risk that may exist across multiple dimensions, such as time and individual. Here, we estimated cause‐specific rates of severe injury and mortality for North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), a critically endangered species that is currently in peril due to human‐caused interactions. We developed a multistate capture–recapture model that leveraged 30 years of intensive survey effort yielding sightings of individuals with injury assessments and necropsies of carcass recoveries. We examined variation in the hazard rates of severe injury and mortality due to entanglements in fishing gear and vessel strikes as explained by temporal patterns and the age and reproductive status of the individual. We found strong evidence for increased rates of severe entanglement injuries after 2013 and for females with calves, with consequently higher marginal mortality. The model results also suggested that despite vessel strikes causing a lower average rate of severe injuries, the higher mortality rate conditional on injury results in significant total mortality risk, particularly for females resting from a recent calving event. Large uncertainty in the estimation of carcass recovery rate for vessel strike deaths permeated into the apportionment of mortality causes. The increased rates of North Atlantic right whale mortality in the last decade, particularly for reproducing females, has been responsible for the severe decline in the species. By apportioning the human‐caused threats using a quantitative approach with estimation of relevant uncertainty, this work can guide development of conservation and management strategies to facilitate species recovery. Our approach is relevant to other monitored populations where cause‐specific injuries from multiple threats can be observed in live and dead individuals.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70086Bayesian hierarchical modelcarcass recoveryentanglementhazard ratemortality causeright whale |
| spellingShingle | Daniel W. Linden Jeffrey A. Hostetler Richard M. Pace III Lance P. Garrison Amy R. Knowlton Véronique Lesage Rob Williams Michael C. Runge Quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whale Ecosphere Bayesian hierarchical model carcass recovery entanglement hazard rate mortality cause right whale |
| title | Quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whale |
| title_full | Quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whale |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whale |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whale |
| title_short | Quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whale |
| title_sort | quantifying uncertainty in anthropogenic causes of injury and mortality for an endangered baleen whale |
| topic | Bayesian hierarchical model carcass recovery entanglement hazard rate mortality cause right whale |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70086 |
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