A Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained Projections
Abstract A reliable projection of the future duration of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) provides an important input for climate adaptation in the Indian subcontinent. Nevertheless, there is low confidence for projections of ISM duration, due to large inter‐model uncertainty of onset and withdrawal...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112848 |
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| author | Yifeng Cheng Lu Wang Xiaolong Chen Tianjun Zhou Andrew Turner |
| author_facet | Yifeng Cheng Lu Wang Xiaolong Chen Tianjun Zhou Andrew Turner |
| author_sort | Yifeng Cheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract A reliable projection of the future duration of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) provides an important input for climate adaptation in the Indian subcontinent. Nevertheless, there is low confidence for projections of ISM duration, due to large inter‐model uncertainty of onset and withdrawal changes. Here, we find that models with excessive sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical western Pacific (WP) during spring and greater surface warming trends over the northern mid‐high latitudes (NMHL) during autumn in the present day tend to overestimate future delays to ISM onset and withdrawal, respectively. This can be attributed to the influence of surface thermal conditions on upper‐tropospheric warming patterns. Constrained by the observational WP SST and NMHL surface warming trends, projected ISM duration under a high‐emission scenario is shortened by 6 days compared to the current climate, with a reduction of inter‐model uncertainty by 46% relative to the unconstrained results. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f5d573a2294740ee83e067f96fd5d22b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-f5d573a2294740ee83e067f96fd5d22b2025-01-20T13:05:57ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-01-01521n/an/a10.1029/2024GL112848A Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained ProjectionsYifeng Cheng0Lu Wang1Xiaolong Chen2Tianjun Zhou3Andrew Turner4Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME) / Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME) / Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaNational Centre for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UKAbstract A reliable projection of the future duration of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) provides an important input for climate adaptation in the Indian subcontinent. Nevertheless, there is low confidence for projections of ISM duration, due to large inter‐model uncertainty of onset and withdrawal changes. Here, we find that models with excessive sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical western Pacific (WP) during spring and greater surface warming trends over the northern mid‐high latitudes (NMHL) during autumn in the present day tend to overestimate future delays to ISM onset and withdrawal, respectively. This can be attributed to the influence of surface thermal conditions on upper‐tropospheric warming patterns. Constrained by the observational WP SST and NMHL surface warming trends, projected ISM duration under a high‐emission scenario is shortened by 6 days compared to the current climate, with a reduction of inter‐model uncertainty by 46% relative to the unconstrained results.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112848emergent constraintAsian monsoonmonsoon durationCMIP6climate projectionglobal warming |
| spellingShingle | Yifeng Cheng Lu Wang Xiaolong Chen Tianjun Zhou Andrew Turner A Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained Projections Geophysical Research Letters emergent constraint Asian monsoon monsoon duration CMIP6 climate projection global warming |
| title | A Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained Projections |
| title_full | A Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained Projections |
| title_fullStr | A Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained Projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained Projections |
| title_short | A Shorter Duration of the Indian Summer Monsoon in Constrained Projections |
| title_sort | shorter duration of the indian summer monsoon in constrained projections |
| topic | emergent constraint Asian monsoon monsoon duration CMIP6 climate projection global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112848 |
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