Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome
Abstract The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled geno...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56426-4 |
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| author | Massimo Bourquin Hannes Peter Grégoire Michoud Susheel Bhanu Busi Tyler J. Kohler Andrew L. Robison Mike Styllas Leïla Ezzat Aileen U. Geers Matthias Huss Stilianos Fodelianakis The Vanishing Glaciers Field Team Tom J. Battin |
| author_facet | Massimo Bourquin Hannes Peter Grégoire Michoud Susheel Bhanu Busi Tyler J. Kohler Andrew L. Robison Mike Styllas Leïla Ezzat Aileen U. Geers Matthias Huss Stilianos Fodelianakis The Vanishing Glaciers Field Team Tom J. Battin |
| author_sort | Massimo Bourquin |
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| description | Abstract The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled genomes with climatic, glaciological, and environmental data collected by the Vanishing Glaciers project from 164 GFSs draining Earth’s major mountain ranges, we here predict the future of the GFS microbiome until the end of the century under various climate change scenarios. Our model framework is rooted in a space-for-time substitution design and leverages statistical learning approaches. We predict that declining environmental selection promotes primary production in GFSs, stimulating both bacterial biomass and biodiversity. Concomitantly, predictions suggest that the phylogenetic structure of the GFS microbiome will change and entire bacterial clades are at risk. Furthermore, genomic projections reveal that microbiome functions will shift, with intensified solar energy acquisition pathways, heterotrophy and algal-bacterial interactions. Altogether, we project a ‘greener’ future of the world’s GFSs accompanied by a loss of clades that have adapted to environmental harshness, with consequences for ecosystem functioning. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f5639df19497400e987d4dbfc5c031f4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-f5639df19497400e987d4dbfc5c031f42025-02-02T12:31:40ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-02-0116111210.1038/s41467-025-56426-4Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiomeMassimo Bourquin0Hannes Peter1Grégoire Michoud2Susheel Bhanu Busi3Tyler J. Kohler4Andrew L. Robison5Mike Styllas6Leïla Ezzat7Aileen U. Geers8Matthias Huss9Stilianos Fodelianakis10The Vanishing Glaciers Field TeamTom J. Battin11River Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)River Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)River Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)UK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyDepartment of Ecology, Faculty of Science, Charles UniversityRiver Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)River Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)MARBEC, University of Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRDRiver Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH ZurichRiver Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)River Ecosystems Laboratory, Alpine and Polar Environmental Research Center, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)Abstract The shrinkage of glaciers and the vanishing of glacier-fed streams (GFSs) are emblematic of climate change. However, forecasts of how GFS microbiome structure and function will change under projected climate change scenarios are lacking. Combining 2,333 prokaryotic metagenome-assembled genomes with climatic, glaciological, and environmental data collected by the Vanishing Glaciers project from 164 GFSs draining Earth’s major mountain ranges, we here predict the future of the GFS microbiome until the end of the century under various climate change scenarios. Our model framework is rooted in a space-for-time substitution design and leverages statistical learning approaches. We predict that declining environmental selection promotes primary production in GFSs, stimulating both bacterial biomass and biodiversity. Concomitantly, predictions suggest that the phylogenetic structure of the GFS microbiome will change and entire bacterial clades are at risk. Furthermore, genomic projections reveal that microbiome functions will shift, with intensified solar energy acquisition pathways, heterotrophy and algal-bacterial interactions. Altogether, we project a ‘greener’ future of the world’s GFSs accompanied by a loss of clades that have adapted to environmental harshness, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56426-4 |
| spellingShingle | Massimo Bourquin Hannes Peter Grégoire Michoud Susheel Bhanu Busi Tyler J. Kohler Andrew L. Robison Mike Styllas Leïla Ezzat Aileen U. Geers Matthias Huss Stilianos Fodelianakis The Vanishing Glaciers Field Team Tom J. Battin Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome Nature Communications |
| title | Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome |
| title_full | Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome |
| title_fullStr | Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome |
| title_short | Predicting climate-change impacts on the global glacier-fed stream microbiome |
| title_sort | predicting climate change impacts on the global glacier fed stream microbiome |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56426-4 |
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