Temporal analyses of global suitability distribution for fall armyworm based on Multiple factors
The fall armyworm (FAW; Spodoptera frugiperda) has been a persistent threat to global food security due to its strong migratory ability and wide range of host plants. However, most current studies on the suitability distribution of FAW focus on extracting suitable areas in specific regions on an ann...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25001104 |
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| author | Minghao Wang Wenjiang Huang Yingying Dong Yanru Huang Bing Zhang Gang Sun Maged Elkahky Changping Huang |
| author_facet | Minghao Wang Wenjiang Huang Yingying Dong Yanru Huang Bing Zhang Gang Sun Maged Elkahky Changping Huang |
| author_sort | Minghao Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The fall armyworm (FAW; Spodoptera frugiperda) has been a persistent threat to global food security due to its strong migratory ability and wide range of host plants. However, most current studies on the suitability distribution of FAW focus on extracting suitable areas in specific regions on an annual basis. Consequently, research on the suitability distribution of FAW at a larger scale and with higher temporal resolution is urgently needed to provide data support for early prevention and control. This study differentiated the historical occurrence records of FAW into annual distribution points and seasonal distribution points. By integrating multi-factor environmental data, including climate, soil, topography, and vegetation, we used MaxEnt to establish annual and monthly models. The annual model extracted the annual suitability distribution of FAW worldwide. Among the nine selected environmental factors, temperature seasonality had the greatest impact on the suitability distribution of FAW, with a single-factor contribution rate of 39.87%. The monthly models analyzed the inter-monthly variations in the global suitability distribution of FAW from January to December. The results indicated that FAW’s suitability was highest in July and lowest in March. Under the dominant influence of dynamic environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, and vegetation index, the expansion and contraction of FAW’s suitability distribution corresponded with seasonal changes, exhibiting significant seasonal fluctuations. Our results can provide FAW control personnel with more practical references for formulating preventive strategies in advance, helping to prevent the potentially incalculable damage FAW could cause to crops in invaded areas. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f4d019572ca144b2b7b3fdf0c5dfc228 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-f4d019572ca144b2b7b3fdf0c5dfc2282025-02-05T04:31:15ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-02-01171113181Temporal analyses of global suitability distribution for fall armyworm based on Multiple factorsMinghao Wang0Wenjiang Huang1Yingying Dong2Yanru Huang3Bing Zhang4Gang Sun5Maged Elkahky6Changping Huang7Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Corresponding authors.Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Corresponding authors.Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaKey Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, ChinaFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO, Roma, ItalyUniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; National Engineering Laboratory for Satellite Remote Sensing Applications, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, ChinaThe fall armyworm (FAW; Spodoptera frugiperda) has been a persistent threat to global food security due to its strong migratory ability and wide range of host plants. However, most current studies on the suitability distribution of FAW focus on extracting suitable areas in specific regions on an annual basis. Consequently, research on the suitability distribution of FAW at a larger scale and with higher temporal resolution is urgently needed to provide data support for early prevention and control. This study differentiated the historical occurrence records of FAW into annual distribution points and seasonal distribution points. By integrating multi-factor environmental data, including climate, soil, topography, and vegetation, we used MaxEnt to establish annual and monthly models. The annual model extracted the annual suitability distribution of FAW worldwide. Among the nine selected environmental factors, temperature seasonality had the greatest impact on the suitability distribution of FAW, with a single-factor contribution rate of 39.87%. The monthly models analyzed the inter-monthly variations in the global suitability distribution of FAW from January to December. The results indicated that FAW’s suitability was highest in July and lowest in March. Under the dominant influence of dynamic environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, and vegetation index, the expansion and contraction of FAW’s suitability distribution corresponded with seasonal changes, exhibiting significant seasonal fluctuations. Our results can provide FAW control personnel with more practical references for formulating preventive strategies in advance, helping to prevent the potentially incalculable damage FAW could cause to crops in invaded areas.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25001104Spodoptera frugiperdaMaxEntPotential distributionStatic and dynamic environmental factors |
| spellingShingle | Minghao Wang Wenjiang Huang Yingying Dong Yanru Huang Bing Zhang Gang Sun Maged Elkahky Changping Huang Temporal analyses of global suitability distribution for fall armyworm based on Multiple factors Ecological Indicators Spodoptera frugiperda MaxEnt Potential distribution Static and dynamic environmental factors |
| title | Temporal analyses of global suitability distribution for fall armyworm based on Multiple factors |
| title_full | Temporal analyses of global suitability distribution for fall armyworm based on Multiple factors |
| title_fullStr | Temporal analyses of global suitability distribution for fall armyworm based on Multiple factors |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temporal analyses of global suitability distribution for fall armyworm based on Multiple factors |
| title_short | Temporal analyses of global suitability distribution for fall armyworm based on Multiple factors |
| title_sort | temporal analyses of global suitability distribution for fall armyworm based on multiple factors |
| topic | Spodoptera frugiperda MaxEnt Potential distribution Static and dynamic environmental factors |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25001104 |
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