High vulnerability of the endemic Southern Ocean snail Neobuccinum eatoni (Buccinidae) to critical projected oceanographic changes
Abstract Climate change is projected to substantially alter the Southern Ocean’s physical and chemical properties, thereby impacting its marine ecosystems and species, particularly those in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic regions. This study focuses on Neobuccinum eatoni, a polar marine ‘true whelk’ end...
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80353-x |
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| author | Rosvita González Luis R. Pertierra Pablo C. Guerrero Angie Díaz |
| author_facet | Rosvita González Luis R. Pertierra Pablo C. Guerrero Angie Díaz |
| author_sort | Rosvita González |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is projected to substantially alter the Southern Ocean’s physical and chemical properties, thereby impacting its marine ecosystems and species, particularly those in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic regions. This study focuses on Neobuccinum eatoni, a polar marine ‘true whelk’ endemic to these regions, utilizing 166 spatially independent occurrence data records to model potential distribution shifts under future climate scenarios. Employing Species Distribution Models (SDMs) on spatially cross-validated occurrences, we achieved high predictive accuracy, identifying "sea water salinity range" at mean bottom depth as the most significant predictor of habitat preferences. Additionally, dissolved iron (minimum), ocean temperature (range), and pH (long-term maximum) emerged as critical factors influencing the species’ modeled distribution. By 2050, future projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario predict an eastward expansion, particularly in the Antarctic Peninsula, the Scotia Arc and the Weddell Sea, with an expansion in the latter region also predicted under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, in both scenarios, a reduction in habitat suitability is expected in certain sectors around the Antarctic continent and the Kerguelen Archipelago. By 2100, under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), the species is projected to move to deeper areas and lower latitudes, with notable expansions in the Weddell Sea and in the Southern Ocean surrounding the Kerguelen Archipelago. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, expansion is projected in the Weddell Sea and reductions in Antarctic and subantarctic regions. This study highlights the critical influence of changing salinity on N. eatoni’s distribution, predicting a significant habitat reduction under high CO2 emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5). The findings underscore the urgent need for focused research on the vulnerability of endemic marine invertebrates to develop effective conservation strategies in the face of rapid climatic changes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f0a33aa6f5a94710811d536e69ef65aa |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-f0a33aa6f5a94710811d536e69ef65aa2025-02-02T12:25:08ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-11-0114111210.1038/s41598-024-80353-xHigh vulnerability of the endemic Southern Ocean snail Neobuccinum eatoni (Buccinidae) to critical projected oceanographic changesRosvita González0Luis R. Pertierra1Pablo C. Guerrero2Angie Díaz3Faculty of Natural and Oceanographic Sciences, University of ConcepciónMillennium Institute Biodiversity of Antarctic and Subantarctic Ecosystems (BASE)Faculty of Natural and Oceanographic Sciences, University of ConcepciónFaculty of Natural and Oceanographic Sciences, University of ConcepciónAbstract Climate change is projected to substantially alter the Southern Ocean’s physical and chemical properties, thereby impacting its marine ecosystems and species, particularly those in Antarctic and sub-Antarctic regions. This study focuses on Neobuccinum eatoni, a polar marine ‘true whelk’ endemic to these regions, utilizing 166 spatially independent occurrence data records to model potential distribution shifts under future climate scenarios. Employing Species Distribution Models (SDMs) on spatially cross-validated occurrences, we achieved high predictive accuracy, identifying "sea water salinity range" at mean bottom depth as the most significant predictor of habitat preferences. Additionally, dissolved iron (minimum), ocean temperature (range), and pH (long-term maximum) emerged as critical factors influencing the species’ modeled distribution. By 2050, future projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario predict an eastward expansion, particularly in the Antarctic Peninsula, the Scotia Arc and the Weddell Sea, with an expansion in the latter region also predicted under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, in both scenarios, a reduction in habitat suitability is expected in certain sectors around the Antarctic continent and the Kerguelen Archipelago. By 2100, under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), the species is projected to move to deeper areas and lower latitudes, with notable expansions in the Weddell Sea and in the Southern Ocean surrounding the Kerguelen Archipelago. However, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, expansion is projected in the Weddell Sea and reductions in Antarctic and subantarctic regions. This study highlights the critical influence of changing salinity on N. eatoni’s distribution, predicting a significant habitat reduction under high CO2 emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5). The findings underscore the urgent need for focused research on the vulnerability of endemic marine invertebrates to develop effective conservation strategies in the face of rapid climatic changes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80353-x |
| spellingShingle | Rosvita González Luis R. Pertierra Pablo C. Guerrero Angie Díaz High vulnerability of the endemic Southern Ocean snail Neobuccinum eatoni (Buccinidae) to critical projected oceanographic changes Scientific Reports |
| title | High vulnerability of the endemic Southern Ocean snail Neobuccinum eatoni (Buccinidae) to critical projected oceanographic changes |
| title_full | High vulnerability of the endemic Southern Ocean snail Neobuccinum eatoni (Buccinidae) to critical projected oceanographic changes |
| title_fullStr | High vulnerability of the endemic Southern Ocean snail Neobuccinum eatoni (Buccinidae) to critical projected oceanographic changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | High vulnerability of the endemic Southern Ocean snail Neobuccinum eatoni (Buccinidae) to critical projected oceanographic changes |
| title_short | High vulnerability of the endemic Southern Ocean snail Neobuccinum eatoni (Buccinidae) to critical projected oceanographic changes |
| title_sort | high vulnerability of the endemic southern ocean snail neobuccinum eatoni buccinidae to critical projected oceanographic changes |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-80353-x |
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