Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset
The onset time of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) is widely recognized as being closely related to the distribution of summer rainfall belts in East Asia. This study examines the sub-seasonal prediction bias of SCSSM onset and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adb9c2 |
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| author | Qinghua Jiang Xue Han Boqi Liu Fei Liu Zhuoqi He Tao Feng Yanan Duan Licheng Feng Xingrong Chen Lanning Wang |
| author_facet | Qinghua Jiang Xue Han Boqi Liu Fei Liu Zhuoqi He Tao Feng Yanan Duan Licheng Feng Xingrong Chen Lanning Wang |
| author_sort | Qinghua Jiang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The onset time of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) is widely recognized as being closely related to the distribution of summer rainfall belts in East Asia. This study examines the sub-seasonal prediction bias of SCSSM onset and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes using the hindcasts from the ECMWF sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The system can accurately predict the onset time two pentads in advance. As the lead time increases, the predicted monsoon onset time tends to be later than the observations. When the forecast lead time exceeds 15 days, the inaccuracies in the northward propagation of tropical convection result in the absence of initial atmospheric constraints. This lack of initial constraints, along with their influence on the boundary forcing over the Bay of Bengal, may lead to a late onset bias of the SCSSM in this forecasting system. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ee3e12dfdf5a4182aec0071b0fcf5e51 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-ee3e12dfdf5a4182aec0071b0fcf5e512025-08-20T03:16:18ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202025-01-017303100310.1088/2515-7620/adb9c2Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onsetQinghua Jiang0https://orcid.org/0009-0008-7850-1979Xue Han1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4950-0690Boqi Liu2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7606-8747Fei Liu3https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9223-0011Zhuoqi He4Tao Feng5Yanan Duan6Licheng Feng7Xingrong Chen8https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4748-3583Lanning Wang9Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, School of Atmospheric Sciences Sun Yat-Sen University , Zhuhai, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hohai University , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China; College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaKey Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaFaculty of Geographical Science (FGS), Beijing Normal University , Beijing, People’s Republic of ChinaThe onset time of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) is widely recognized as being closely related to the distribution of summer rainfall belts in East Asia. This study examines the sub-seasonal prediction bias of SCSSM onset and investigates the associated oceanic and atmospheric processes using the hindcasts from the ECMWF sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The system can accurately predict the onset time two pentads in advance. As the lead time increases, the predicted monsoon onset time tends to be later than the observations. When the forecast lead time exceeds 15 days, the inaccuracies in the northward propagation of tropical convection result in the absence of initial atmospheric constraints. This lack of initial constraints, along with their influence on the boundary forcing over the Bay of Bengal, may lead to a late onset bias of the SCSSM in this forecasting system.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adb9c2South China Sea summer monsoon onsetprediction skillconvective propagationECMWF sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system |
| spellingShingle | Qinghua Jiang Xue Han Boqi Liu Fei Liu Zhuoqi He Tao Feng Yanan Duan Licheng Feng Xingrong Chen Lanning Wang Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset Environmental Research Communications South China Sea summer monsoon onset prediction skill convective propagation ECMWF sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system |
| title | Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset |
| title_full | Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset |
| title_fullStr | Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset |
| title_full_unstemmed | Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset |
| title_short | Initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub-seasonal prediction skill of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon onset |
| title_sort | initial atmospheric constraints limit the sub seasonal prediction skill of the south china sea summer monsoon onset |
| topic | South China Sea summer monsoon onset prediction skill convective propagation ECMWF sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adb9c2 |
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