The pitfalls of modelling the effects of COVID-19 on gender-based violence: lessons learnt and ways forward
Since early 2020, global stakeholders have highlighted the significant gendered consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, including increases in the risk of gender-based violence (GBV). Researchers have sought to inform the pandemic response through a diverse set of methodologies, including early effor...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMJ Publishing Group
2021-05-01
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| Series: | BMJ Global Health |
| Online Access: | https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/5/e005739.full |
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| author | Amber Peterman Amiya Bhatia Shirin Heidari Michelle Lokot |
| author_facet | Amber Peterman Amiya Bhatia Shirin Heidari Michelle Lokot |
| author_sort | Amber Peterman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Since early 2020, global stakeholders have highlighted the significant gendered consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, including increases in the risk of gender-based violence (GBV). Researchers have sought to inform the pandemic response through a diverse set of methodologies, including early efforts modelling anticipated increases in GBV. For example, in April 2020, a highly cited modelling effort by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and partners projected headline global figures of 31 million additional cases of intimate partner violence due to 6 months of lockdown, and an additional 13 million child marriages by 2030. In this paper, we discuss the rationale for using modelling to make projections about GBV, and use the projections released by UNFPA to draw attention to the assumptions and biases underlying model-based projections. We raise five key critiques: (1) reducing complex issues to simplified, linear cause-effect relationships, (2) reliance on a small number of studies to generate global estimates, (3) assuming that the pandemic results in the complete service disruption for existing interventions, (4) lack of clarity in indicators used and sources of estimates, and (5) failure to account for margins of uncertainty. We argue that there is a need to consider the motivations and consequences of using modelling data as a planning tool for complex issues like GBV, and conclude by suggesting key considerations for policymakers and practitioners in using and commissioning such projections. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ece687123df14f18aa6d3db36f77df1d |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2059-7908 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
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| series | BMJ Global Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-ece687123df14f18aa6d3db36f77df1d2025-08-20T02:09:48ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Global Health2059-79082021-05-016510.1136/bmjgh-2021-005739The pitfalls of modelling the effects of COVID-19 on gender-based violence: lessons learnt and ways forwardAmber Peterman0Amiya Bhatia1Shirin Heidari2Michelle Lokot3Department of Public Policy, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USADepartment of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK5 GENDRO, Geneva, SwitzerlandDepartment of Health Services Research and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UKSince early 2020, global stakeholders have highlighted the significant gendered consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, including increases in the risk of gender-based violence (GBV). Researchers have sought to inform the pandemic response through a diverse set of methodologies, including early efforts modelling anticipated increases in GBV. For example, in April 2020, a highly cited modelling effort by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and partners projected headline global figures of 31 million additional cases of intimate partner violence due to 6 months of lockdown, and an additional 13 million child marriages by 2030. In this paper, we discuss the rationale for using modelling to make projections about GBV, and use the projections released by UNFPA to draw attention to the assumptions and biases underlying model-based projections. We raise five key critiques: (1) reducing complex issues to simplified, linear cause-effect relationships, (2) reliance on a small number of studies to generate global estimates, (3) assuming that the pandemic results in the complete service disruption for existing interventions, (4) lack of clarity in indicators used and sources of estimates, and (5) failure to account for margins of uncertainty. We argue that there is a need to consider the motivations and consequences of using modelling data as a planning tool for complex issues like GBV, and conclude by suggesting key considerations for policymakers and practitioners in using and commissioning such projections.https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/5/e005739.full |
| spellingShingle | Amber Peterman Amiya Bhatia Shirin Heidari Michelle Lokot The pitfalls of modelling the effects of COVID-19 on gender-based violence: lessons learnt and ways forward BMJ Global Health |
| title | The pitfalls of modelling the effects of COVID-19 on gender-based violence: lessons learnt and ways forward |
| title_full | The pitfalls of modelling the effects of COVID-19 on gender-based violence: lessons learnt and ways forward |
| title_fullStr | The pitfalls of modelling the effects of COVID-19 on gender-based violence: lessons learnt and ways forward |
| title_full_unstemmed | The pitfalls of modelling the effects of COVID-19 on gender-based violence: lessons learnt and ways forward |
| title_short | The pitfalls of modelling the effects of COVID-19 on gender-based violence: lessons learnt and ways forward |
| title_sort | pitfalls of modelling the effects of covid 19 on gender based violence lessons learnt and ways forward |
| url | https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/5/e005739.full |
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