Negative campaigning and electoral mobilization: empirical evidence from German state elections
Recent research has been inconclusive about the systemic effects of negative campaigning. The available studies, most of which focus on the United States, either conclude that attack behavior decreases turnout, increases turnout, or has no effect on turnout. This study analyzes the relation between...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Political Research Exchange |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/2474736X.2025.2533148 |
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| author | Jürgen Maier Sebastian Stier Mona Dian |
| author_facet | Jürgen Maier Sebastian Stier Mona Dian |
| author_sort | Jürgen Maier |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent research has been inconclusive about the systemic effects of negative campaigning. The available studies, most of which focus on the United States, either conclude that attack behavior decreases turnout, increases turnout, or has no effect on turnout. This study analyzes the relation between negative campaigning and turnout at the constituency level in 13 German state elections in 2021 and 2024. Based on a triangulation of data from the state returning officers and candidate surveys we show that an overall negative tone of the campaign stimulates voter participation; the predicted difference in turnout between a constituency reporting a low and a constituency reporting a high level of negativity is 2.5 percentage points for the overall campaign and 3.3 percentage points for the candidates’ attack behavior at the constituency level. We conclude that the specific effect of negative campaigning on turnout depends on the level of communication. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ece4516604dc4f9fac96d8e4c5fe0e0c |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2474-736X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Political Research Exchange |
| spelling | doaj-art-ece4516604dc4f9fac96d8e4c5fe0e0c2025-08-20T03:18:08ZengTaylor & Francis GroupPolitical Research Exchange2474-736X2025-12-017110.1080/2474736X.2025.2533148Negative campaigning and electoral mobilization: empirical evidence from German state electionsJürgen Maier0Sebastian Stier1Mona Dian2RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau, Department of Political Science, Landau, GermanyGESIS - Leibnitz Institute for the Social Sciences, Cologne, GermanyGESIS - Leibnitz Institute for the Social Sciences, Cologne, GermanyRecent research has been inconclusive about the systemic effects of negative campaigning. The available studies, most of which focus on the United States, either conclude that attack behavior decreases turnout, increases turnout, or has no effect on turnout. This study analyzes the relation between negative campaigning and turnout at the constituency level in 13 German state elections in 2021 and 2024. Based on a triangulation of data from the state returning officers and candidate surveys we show that an overall negative tone of the campaign stimulates voter participation; the predicted difference in turnout between a constituency reporting a low and a constituency reporting a high level of negativity is 2.5 percentage points for the overall campaign and 3.3 percentage points for the candidates’ attack behavior at the constituency level. We conclude that the specific effect of negative campaigning on turnout depends on the level of communication.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/2474736X.2025.2533148Negative campaigningturnoutcandidate surveyGermany |
| spellingShingle | Jürgen Maier Sebastian Stier Mona Dian Negative campaigning and electoral mobilization: empirical evidence from German state elections Political Research Exchange Negative campaigning turnout candidate survey Germany |
| title | Negative campaigning and electoral mobilization: empirical evidence from German state elections |
| title_full | Negative campaigning and electoral mobilization: empirical evidence from German state elections |
| title_fullStr | Negative campaigning and electoral mobilization: empirical evidence from German state elections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Negative campaigning and electoral mobilization: empirical evidence from German state elections |
| title_short | Negative campaigning and electoral mobilization: empirical evidence from German state elections |
| title_sort | negative campaigning and electoral mobilization empirical evidence from german state elections |
| topic | Negative campaigning turnout candidate survey Germany |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/2474736X.2025.2533148 |
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