An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April
Statistical models for preseason prediction of annual Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and hurricane counts generally include El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts as a predictor. As a result, the predictions from such models are often contaminated by the errors in ENSO forecasts. In this stud...
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Wiley
2014-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Meteorology |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/248148 |
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| author | Kenny Xie Bin Liu |
| author_facet | Kenny Xie Bin Liu |
| author_sort | Kenny Xie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Statistical models for preseason prediction of annual Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and hurricane counts generally include El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts as a predictor. As a result, the predictions from such models are often contaminated by the errors in ENSO forecasts. In this study, it is found that the latent heat flux (LHF) over Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP, defined as the region 0°–5°N, 115°–125°W) in spring is negatively correlated with the annual Atlantic TC and hurricane counts. By using stepwise backward elimination regression, it is further shown that the March value of ETP LHF is a better predictor than the spring or summer ENSO index for Atlantic TC counts. Leave-one-out cross validation indicates that the annual Atlantic TC counts predicted by this ENSO-independent statistical model show a remarkable correlation with the actual TC counts (R=0.72; P value <0.01). For Atlantic hurricanes, the predictions using March ETP LHF and summer (July–September) ENSO indices show only minor differences except in moderate to strong El Niño years. Thus, March ETP LHF is an excellent predictor for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction and a viable alternative to using ENSO index for Atlantic hurricane prediction. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-eb607f3e931447a198a5a82ba1f8360e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9309 1687-9317 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Advances in Meteorology |
| spelling | doaj-art-eb607f3e931447a198a5a82ba1f8360e2025-02-03T06:42:00ZengWileyAdvances in Meteorology1687-93091687-93172014-01-01201410.1155/2014/248148248148An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in AprilKenny Xie0Bin Liu1Enloe High School, Raleigh, NC, USADepartment of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Campus Box 8208, Raleigh, NC 27695, USAStatistical models for preseason prediction of annual Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and hurricane counts generally include El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts as a predictor. As a result, the predictions from such models are often contaminated by the errors in ENSO forecasts. In this study, it is found that the latent heat flux (LHF) over Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP, defined as the region 0°–5°N, 115°–125°W) in spring is negatively correlated with the annual Atlantic TC and hurricane counts. By using stepwise backward elimination regression, it is further shown that the March value of ETP LHF is a better predictor than the spring or summer ENSO index for Atlantic TC counts. Leave-one-out cross validation indicates that the annual Atlantic TC counts predicted by this ENSO-independent statistical model show a remarkable correlation with the actual TC counts (R=0.72; P value <0.01). For Atlantic hurricanes, the predictions using March ETP LHF and summer (July–September) ENSO indices show only minor differences except in moderate to strong El Niño years. Thus, March ETP LHF is an excellent predictor for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction and a viable alternative to using ENSO index for Atlantic hurricane prediction.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/248148 |
| spellingShingle | Kenny Xie Bin Liu An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April Advances in Meteorology |
| title | An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April |
| title_full | An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April |
| title_fullStr | An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April |
| title_full_unstemmed | An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April |
| title_short | An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April |
| title_sort | enso forecast independent statistical model for the prediction of annual atlantic tropical cyclone frequency in april |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/248148 |
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