Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making?
Urban Building Energy Models (UBEMs) are emerging as a powerful tool for cities and regions seeking to make decisions on the best pathways for increasing the energy efficiency of their buildings. As model results are used to inform critical policy decisions, it is essential to understand and communi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad9438 |
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| author | Pamela J Fennell Shima Ebrahimigharehbaghi Érika Mata Georgios Kokogiannakis Shyam Amrith Sotiria Ignatiadou Samuele Lo Piamo |
| author_facet | Pamela J Fennell Shima Ebrahimigharehbaghi Érika Mata Georgios Kokogiannakis Shyam Amrith Sotiria Ignatiadou Samuele Lo Piamo |
| author_sort | Pamela J Fennell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Urban Building Energy Models (UBEMs) are emerging as a powerful tool for cities and regions seeking to make decisions on the best pathways for increasing the energy efficiency of their buildings. As model results are used to inform critical policy decisions, it is essential to understand and communicate the limits of inference of model results and how sensitive they are to changes in inputs. In the absence of standard datasets and protocols for model validation, Uncertainty Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis (UASA) procedures offer vital insights. However, there is no consensus on how UASA should be applied to bottom-up building physics-based UBEMs, nor on how different use cases might influence the choice of UASA approach. This study uses a systematic review of the literature (2009–2023) to explore the procedures which are applied and assess their appropriateness. We find a need for a more holistic view of uncertainty to be taken, and present a decision framework for selecting the most appropriate form of quantitative sensitivity analysis, based on model form, data provenance and use case. We also propose a number of approaches to improve the application of sensitivity analysis in UBEM studies, including the importance of undertaking a complementary assessment of information quality. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e9169dca3120445c8e76c8cc3ce09a70 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-e9169dca3120445c8e76c8cc3ce09a702025-08-20T03:00:54ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202025-01-017202200210.1088/2515-7620/ad9438Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making?Pamela J Fennell0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3935-3466Shima Ebrahimigharehbaghi1Érika Mata2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0735-3744Georgios Kokogiannakis3Shyam Amrith4Sotiria Ignatiadou5Samuele Lo Piamo6https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2625-483XUCL Energy Institute, University College London , 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN, United KingdomDelft University of Technology , Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment, Julianalaan 134, Delft, The NetherlandsIVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute , Aschebergsgatan 44, 41133 Gothenburg, SwedenSustainable Buildings Research Centre (SBRC), Innovation Campus, University of Wollongong , AustraliaUCL Energy Institute, University College London , 14 Upper Woburn Place, London, WC1H 0NN, United KingdomIVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute , Aschebergsgatan 44, 41133 Gothenburg, SwedenFaculty of the Built Environment, University of Reading , Whiteknights Campus, Reading, RG6 6ED, United KingdomUrban Building Energy Models (UBEMs) are emerging as a powerful tool for cities and regions seeking to make decisions on the best pathways for increasing the energy efficiency of their buildings. As model results are used to inform critical policy decisions, it is essential to understand and communicate the limits of inference of model results and how sensitive they are to changes in inputs. In the absence of standard datasets and protocols for model validation, Uncertainty Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis (UASA) procedures offer vital insights. However, there is no consensus on how UASA should be applied to bottom-up building physics-based UBEMs, nor on how different use cases might influence the choice of UASA approach. This study uses a systematic review of the literature (2009–2023) to explore the procedures which are applied and assess their appropriateness. We find a need for a more holistic view of uncertainty to be taken, and present a decision framework for selecting the most appropriate form of quantitative sensitivity analysis, based on model form, data provenance and use case. We also propose a number of approaches to improve the application of sensitivity analysis in UBEM studies, including the importance of undertaking a complementary assessment of information quality.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad9438building stockurban building energy modelsbuilding energy demanduncertainty analysissensitivity analysisUBEM |
| spellingShingle | Pamela J Fennell Shima Ebrahimigharehbaghi Érika Mata Georgios Kokogiannakis Shyam Amrith Sotiria Ignatiadou Samuele Lo Piamo Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making? Environmental Research Communications building stock urban building energy models building energy demand uncertainty analysis sensitivity analysis UBEM |
| title | Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making? |
| title_full | Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making? |
| title_fullStr | Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making? |
| title_short | Urban building energy models: how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision-making? |
| title_sort | urban building energy models how can we improve the treatment of uncertainty for energy policy decision making |
| topic | building stock urban building energy models building energy demand uncertainty analysis sensitivity analysis UBEM |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ad9438 |
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