Research on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Structure on the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB
Since the beginning of 2018, Sino-US trade frictions have been escalating to the fields of science and technology, finance, and geography. Especially in the financial field, the United States has forcibly identified China as a “currency manipulator.” In order to analyze the impact of Sino-US trade o...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/7237378 |
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| _version_ | 1832566652745547776 |
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| author | Jiajia Yan Jinlong Cai |
| author_facet | Jiajia Yan Jinlong Cai |
| author_sort | Jiajia Yan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Since the beginning of 2018, Sino-US trade frictions have been escalating to the fields of science and technology, finance, and geography. Especially in the financial field, the United States has forcibly identified China as a “currency manipulator.” In order to analyze the impact of Sino-US trade on the RMB exchange rate, based on the Sino-US import and export trade data under the quarterly HS classification from 2003 to 2019 and the RMB real effective exchange rate, this article carries out the traditional time series test, seasonal unit root test, and cointegration test and further constructs the seasonal error correction model to explore the long-term and short-term dynamic impact of Sino-US import and export trade structure on RMB real effective exchange rate. The results shows that the upgrading and optimization of the overall trade structure between China and the United States will increase the appreciation pressure of RMB real effective exchange rate. There are seasonal and long-term trends between RMB real effective exchange rate and different types of import and export trade structures between China and the United States. Therefore, this article not only strongly refutes the “theory of RMB appreciation” and puts forward policy suggestions to effectively deal with the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction but also provides a research framework for global trade, especially the decoupling of trade structure and exchange rate between developing and developed countries. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e8fcf469f4324a28bd1ba500265062c0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1607-887X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| spelling | doaj-art-e8fcf469f4324a28bd1ba500265062c02025-02-03T01:03:40ZengWileyDiscrete Dynamics in Nature and Society1607-887X2021-01-01202110.1155/2021/7237378Research on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Structure on the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMBJiajia Yan0Jinlong Cai1School of Economics and ManagementSchool of Economics and ManagementSince the beginning of 2018, Sino-US trade frictions have been escalating to the fields of science and technology, finance, and geography. Especially in the financial field, the United States has forcibly identified China as a “currency manipulator.” In order to analyze the impact of Sino-US trade on the RMB exchange rate, based on the Sino-US import and export trade data under the quarterly HS classification from 2003 to 2019 and the RMB real effective exchange rate, this article carries out the traditional time series test, seasonal unit root test, and cointegration test and further constructs the seasonal error correction model to explore the long-term and short-term dynamic impact of Sino-US import and export trade structure on RMB real effective exchange rate. The results shows that the upgrading and optimization of the overall trade structure between China and the United States will increase the appreciation pressure of RMB real effective exchange rate. There are seasonal and long-term trends between RMB real effective exchange rate and different types of import and export trade structures between China and the United States. Therefore, this article not only strongly refutes the “theory of RMB appreciation” and puts forward policy suggestions to effectively deal with the negative impact of Sino-US trade friction but also provides a research framework for global trade, especially the decoupling of trade structure and exchange rate between developing and developed countries.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/7237378 |
| spellingShingle | Jiajia Yan Jinlong Cai Research on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Structure on the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society |
| title | Research on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Structure on the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB |
| title_full | Research on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Structure on the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB |
| title_fullStr | Research on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Structure on the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB |
| title_full_unstemmed | Research on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Structure on the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB |
| title_short | Research on the Impact of Sino-US Trade Structure on the Real Effective Exchange Rate of RMB |
| title_sort | research on the impact of sino us trade structure on the real effective exchange rate of rmb |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/7237378 |
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