Possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in Africa
The recent expansion of mpox in Africa is characterized by a dramatic increase in zoonotic transmission (clade Ia) and the emergence of a new clade Ib that is transmitted from human to human by close contact. Clade Ia does not pose a threat in areas without zoonotic reservoirs. But clade Ib may spre...
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Elsevier
2025-04-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122400448X |
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| author | Eskild Petersen Ulrik Hvid Oyewale Tomori Anders Gorm Pedersen Jacco Wallinga Richard Pebody Orlando Cenciarelli Preben Aavitsland David Van Laeken Viggo Andreasen Uffe Schneider Julia Kinane Simonsen Marlies Jilles Francine Goedknegt Caroline Klint Johannesen Jens D. Lundgren Anders Koch Bolette Søborg Anna Mia Ekström Hannah Nohynek Frank M. Aarestrup Tyra G. Krause Lone Simonsen |
| author_facet | Eskild Petersen Ulrik Hvid Oyewale Tomori Anders Gorm Pedersen Jacco Wallinga Richard Pebody Orlando Cenciarelli Preben Aavitsland David Van Laeken Viggo Andreasen Uffe Schneider Julia Kinane Simonsen Marlies Jilles Francine Goedknegt Caroline Klint Johannesen Jens D. Lundgren Anders Koch Bolette Søborg Anna Mia Ekström Hannah Nohynek Frank M. Aarestrup Tyra G. Krause Lone Simonsen |
| author_sort | Eskild Petersen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The recent expansion of mpox in Africa is characterized by a dramatic increase in zoonotic transmission (clade Ia) and the emergence of a new clade Ib that is transmitted from human to human by close contact. Clade Ia does not pose a threat in areas without zoonotic reservoirs. But clade Ib may spread widely, as did clade IIb which has spread globally since 2022 among men who have sex with men. It is not clear whether controlling clade Ib will be more difficult than clade IIb. The population at risk potentially counts 100 million but only a million vaccine doses are expected in the next year. Surveillance is needed with exhaustive case detection, polymerase chain reaction confirmation, clade determination, and about severe illness. Such data is needed to identify routes of transmission and core transmitters, such as sex workers. Health care workers are vaccinated to ensure their protection, but this will not curb mpox transmission. With the recent inequitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in mind, it is a global responsibility to ensure that low-income nations in the mpox epicenter have meaningful access to vaccines. Vaccination serves not only to reduce mortality in children but limit the risk of future mpox variants emerging that may spread in human populations globally. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e7e055ae36bb41d098171cfd809d8931 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1201-9712 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | International Journal of Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-e7e055ae36bb41d098171cfd809d89312025-01-20T04:17:19ZengElsevierInternational Journal of Infectious Diseases1201-97122025-04-01153107373Possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in AfricaEskild Petersen0Ulrik Hvid1Oyewale Tomori2Anders Gorm Pedersen3Jacco Wallinga4Richard Pebody5Orlando Cenciarelli6Preben Aavitsland7David Van Laeken8Viggo Andreasen9Uffe Schneider10Julia Kinane Simonsen11Marlies Jilles Francine Goedknegt12Caroline Klint Johannesen13Jens D. Lundgren14Anders Koch15Bolette Søborg16Anna Mia Ekström17Hannah Nohynek18Frank M. Aarestrup19Tyra G. Krause20Lone Simonsen21PandemiX Center, Dept of Science & Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, DenmarkPandemiX Center, Dept of Science & Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, DenmarkAfrican Centre of Excellence for Genomics of Infectious Diseases, Redeemer's University, Ede, NigeriaDepartment of Health Technology, Section for Bioinformatics, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkDepartment of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center in Leiden, Leiden, The Netherlands; National Institute for Public Health, Environment in Bilthoven, Bilthoven, The NetherlandsUK Health Security Agency, London, United KingdomEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Solna, SwedenDivision of Infection Control, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, NorwayMédecins Sans Frontières, MSF. Brussels, Belgium, and Goma, Democratic Republic of the CongoPandemiX Center, Dept of Science & Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, DenmarkDepartment of Virus and Microbiological Special Diagnostics, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark; Copenhagen Hepatitis C Program (CO-HEP), Department of Immunology and Microbiology, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DenmarkBavarian Nordic, Hellerup, DenmarkPandemiX Center, Dept of Science & Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, DenmarkPandemiX Center, Dept of Science & Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, Denmark; Department of Clinical Research, Nordsjaellands University Hospital, Hilleroed, DenmarkCHIP (Centre of Excellence for Health, Immunity and Infections), Rigshospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, DenmarkInfectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark; Department of Infectious Diseases, Rigshospitalet University Hospital, Copenhagen, DenmarkInfectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, DenmarkDepartment of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Infectious Diseases/Venhälsan, Södersjukhuset, Stockholm, SwedenDepartment of Health Security, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, FinlandResearch Group for Genomic Epidemiology, National Food Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, DenmarkEpidemiological Infectious Disease Preparedness, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, DenmarkPandemiX Center, Dept of Science & Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, DenmarkThe recent expansion of mpox in Africa is characterized by a dramatic increase in zoonotic transmission (clade Ia) and the emergence of a new clade Ib that is transmitted from human to human by close contact. Clade Ia does not pose a threat in areas without zoonotic reservoirs. But clade Ib may spread widely, as did clade IIb which has spread globally since 2022 among men who have sex with men. It is not clear whether controlling clade Ib will be more difficult than clade IIb. The population at risk potentially counts 100 million but only a million vaccine doses are expected in the next year. Surveillance is needed with exhaustive case detection, polymerase chain reaction confirmation, clade determination, and about severe illness. Such data is needed to identify routes of transmission and core transmitters, such as sex workers. Health care workers are vaccinated to ensure their protection, but this will not curb mpox transmission. With the recent inequitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in mind, it is a global responsibility to ensure that low-income nations in the mpox epicenter have meaningful access to vaccines. Vaccination serves not only to reduce mortality in children but limit the risk of future mpox variants emerging that may spread in human populations globally.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122400448XMpox cladesEpidemiologyControl |
| spellingShingle | Eskild Petersen Ulrik Hvid Oyewale Tomori Anders Gorm Pedersen Jacco Wallinga Richard Pebody Orlando Cenciarelli Preben Aavitsland David Van Laeken Viggo Andreasen Uffe Schneider Julia Kinane Simonsen Marlies Jilles Francine Goedknegt Caroline Klint Johannesen Jens D. Lundgren Anders Koch Bolette Søborg Anna Mia Ekström Hannah Nohynek Frank M. Aarestrup Tyra G. Krause Lone Simonsen Possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in Africa International Journal of Infectious Diseases Mpox clades Epidemiology Control |
| title | Possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in Africa |
| title_full | Possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in Africa |
| title_fullStr | Possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in Africa |
| title_short | Possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in Africa |
| title_sort | possible scenarios for the spread of mpox outside the endemic focus in africa |
| topic | Mpox clades Epidemiology Control |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197122400448X |
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