Macroecological predictors to determine future refuges of Luciobarbus species in the Tigris–Euphrates basin: Rethinking conservation strategies and management
Freshwater ecosystems, being highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, experience a greater influence than terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Hence, by identifying the regions that will be most affected by climate change in the future, managers can implement more efficient and effective m...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Global Ecology and Conservation |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989424005985 |
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| author | Hadi Khoshnamvand Seyed Mohsen Mousavi Asef Darvishi Kourosh Ahmadi Amir Naghibi Karel Janko Asghar Abdoli Faraham Ahmadzadeh |
| author_facet | Hadi Khoshnamvand Seyed Mohsen Mousavi Asef Darvishi Kourosh Ahmadi Amir Naghibi Karel Janko Asghar Abdoli Faraham Ahmadzadeh |
| author_sort | Hadi Khoshnamvand |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Freshwater ecosystems, being highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, experience a greater influence than terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Hence, by identifying the regions that will be most affected by climate change in the future, managers can implement more efficient and effective measures to protect them. In this study, we utilized six Luciobarbus species residing at the southernmost boundary of their global distribution as a representative species model. We aimed to evaluate the influence of climate change on the distribution of these key species to identify potential future climate refuges within the Tigris–Euphrates basin and use the richness mapping method to determine the most critical driver of their richness pattern for high-priority conservation. In the current study, using an ensemble approach, we modeled the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of six Luciobarbus species by the years 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) of general circulation models (GCMs). We employed a generalized linear model (GLM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution to create a map depicting the richness of Luciobarbus fish species.Our projections indicate that suitable habitats will decline in both time series under climate change SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, resulting in the loss of certain habitat patches in the Southwest of Iran, Syria and Iraq. The result of the species richness map shows the southern region of the Tigris–Euphrates basin has the highest number of species. Furthermore, temperature was the most critical predictor of Luciobarbus fish richness in the basin. Implementing significant strategies, such as identifying areas with the highest species richness and susceptibility to climate change, is essential to conserving and managing key species like Luciobarbus. Additionally, establishing protected areas in suitable landscapes and preserving critical habitat patches as future climate refuges are crucial. These measures will contribute significantly to the conservation and management of freshwater species. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e78f53f7ec6641d8b1c9f3ea7987e15a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2351-9894 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Ecology and Conservation |
| spelling | doaj-art-e78f53f7ec6641d8b1c9f3ea7987e15a2025-01-23T05:27:01ZengElsevierGlobal Ecology and Conservation2351-98942025-01-0157e03394Macroecological predictors to determine future refuges of Luciobarbus species in the Tigris–Euphrates basin: Rethinking conservation strategies and managementHadi Khoshnamvand0Seyed Mohsen Mousavi1Asef Darvishi2Kourosh Ahmadi3Amir Naghibi4Karel Janko5Asghar Abdoli6Faraham Ahmadzadeh7Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Evin, Tehran, Iran; Corresponding author.Department of Environmental Planning and Design, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran 1983969411, IranLeibniz Institute for Agricultural Engineering and Bioeconomy (ATB), Potsdam-Bornim, Max-Eyth-Allee 100, Potsdam 14469, GermanyDepartment of Water Resources Engineering & Center for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, Lund, SE 221 00, SwedenDepartment of Water Resources Engineering & Center for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, Lund, SE 221 00, SwedenLaboratory of Non-Mendelian Evolution, Institute of Animal Physiology and Genetics of the CAS, Libechov, Czech Republic; Department of Biology and Ecology, Faculty of Science, University of Ostrava, Ostrava, Czech RepublicDepartment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Evin, Tehran, IranDepartment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C., Evin, Tehran, IranFreshwater ecosystems, being highly susceptible to the impacts of climate change, experience a greater influence than terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Hence, by identifying the regions that will be most affected by climate change in the future, managers can implement more efficient and effective measures to protect them. In this study, we utilized six Luciobarbus species residing at the southernmost boundary of their global distribution as a representative species model. We aimed to evaluate the influence of climate change on the distribution of these key species to identify potential future climate refuges within the Tigris–Euphrates basin and use the richness mapping method to determine the most critical driver of their richness pattern for high-priority conservation. In the current study, using an ensemble approach, we modeled the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of six Luciobarbus species by the years 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) of general circulation models (GCMs). We employed a generalized linear model (GLM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution to create a map depicting the richness of Luciobarbus fish species.Our projections indicate that suitable habitats will decline in both time series under climate change SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, resulting in the loss of certain habitat patches in the Southwest of Iran, Syria and Iraq. The result of the species richness map shows the southern region of the Tigris–Euphrates basin has the highest number of species. Furthermore, temperature was the most critical predictor of Luciobarbus fish richness in the basin. Implementing significant strategies, such as identifying areas with the highest species richness and susceptibility to climate change, is essential to conserving and managing key species like Luciobarbus. Additionally, establishing protected areas in suitable landscapes and preserving critical habitat patches as future climate refuges are crucial. These measures will contribute significantly to the conservation and management of freshwater species.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989424005985Climate changeFreshwater ecosystemTigris–Euphrates basinHabitat refugesLuciobarbus speciesConservation |
| spellingShingle | Hadi Khoshnamvand Seyed Mohsen Mousavi Asef Darvishi Kourosh Ahmadi Amir Naghibi Karel Janko Asghar Abdoli Faraham Ahmadzadeh Macroecological predictors to determine future refuges of Luciobarbus species in the Tigris–Euphrates basin: Rethinking conservation strategies and management Global Ecology and Conservation Climate change Freshwater ecosystem Tigris–Euphrates basin Habitat refuges Luciobarbus species Conservation |
| title | Macroecological predictors to determine future refuges of Luciobarbus species in the Tigris–Euphrates basin: Rethinking conservation strategies and management |
| title_full | Macroecological predictors to determine future refuges of Luciobarbus species in the Tigris–Euphrates basin: Rethinking conservation strategies and management |
| title_fullStr | Macroecological predictors to determine future refuges of Luciobarbus species in the Tigris–Euphrates basin: Rethinking conservation strategies and management |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macroecological predictors to determine future refuges of Luciobarbus species in the Tigris–Euphrates basin: Rethinking conservation strategies and management |
| title_short | Macroecological predictors to determine future refuges of Luciobarbus species in the Tigris–Euphrates basin: Rethinking conservation strategies and management |
| title_sort | macroecological predictors to determine future refuges of luciobarbus species in the tigris euphrates basin rethinking conservation strategies and management |
| topic | Climate change Freshwater ecosystem Tigris–Euphrates basin Habitat refuges Luciobarbus species Conservation |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989424005985 |
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