COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY
Extreme weather changes and the El Nino phenomenon in 2023 will cause drought, resulting in a decrease in rice production and an increase in rice prices. It has significantly impacted East Java Province as it is the most extensive rice supplier in Indonesia. This study aims to predict the price of...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universitas Pattimura
2024-07-01
|
| Series: | Barekeng |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12712 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850282750175608832 |
|---|---|
| author | Adnan Syawal Adilaha Sadikin Aqil Azmi Reswara M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Ardi Kurniawan |
| author_facet | Adnan Syawal Adilaha Sadikin Aqil Azmi Reswara M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Ardi Kurniawan |
| author_sort | Adnan Syawal Adilaha Sadikin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Extreme weather changes and the El Nino phenomenon in 2023 will cause drought, resulting in a decrease in rice production and an increase in rice prices. It has significantly impacted East Java Province as it is the most extensive rice supplier in Indonesia. This study aims to predict the price of rice with six different qualities using the Fourier series estimator and Gaussian kernel function simultaneously. The results show that the Gaussian kernel method, with a bandwidth value of 1, produces a better model with a MAPE value of 0.228259% than the sine function Fourier series method in predicting rice prices based on six different qualities. The prediction results using the Gaussian kernel function method are categorized as highly accurate because they are less than 10%. This research accelerates the realization of SDG 2 related to "Zero Hunger" through government policies to control the high price of rice in Indonesia. Recommendations that can be given through the research results include cooperation with the government, which can help access information and resources needed to manage price risks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e780d2b77a3d4933a89c02cdc2b1fabc |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1978-7227 2615-3017 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Universitas Pattimura |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Barekeng |
| spelling | doaj-art-e780d2b77a3d4933a89c02cdc2b1fabc2025-08-20T01:47:54ZengUniversitas PattimuraBarekeng1978-72272615-30172024-07-011831963197410.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1963-197412712COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLYAdnan Syawal Adilaha Sadikin0Aqil Azmi Reswara1M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto2Ardi Kurniawan3Statistics Study Program: Department of Mathematics, Faculty Sains & Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaStatistics Study Program: Department of Mathematics, Faculty Sains & Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaStatistics Study Program: Department of Mathematics, Faculty Sains & Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaStatistics Study Program: Department of Mathematics, Faculty Sains & Technology, Universitas Airlangga, IndonesiaExtreme weather changes and the El Nino phenomenon in 2023 will cause drought, resulting in a decrease in rice production and an increase in rice prices. It has significantly impacted East Java Province as it is the most extensive rice supplier in Indonesia. This study aims to predict the price of rice with six different qualities using the Fourier series estimator and Gaussian kernel function simultaneously. The results show that the Gaussian kernel method, with a bandwidth value of 1, produces a better model with a MAPE value of 0.228259% than the sine function Fourier series method in predicting rice prices based on six different qualities. The prediction results using the Gaussian kernel function method are categorized as highly accurate because they are less than 10%. This research accelerates the realization of SDG 2 related to "Zero Hunger" through government policies to control the high price of rice in Indonesia. Recommendations that can be given through the research results include cooperation with the government, which can help access information and resources needed to manage price risks.https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12712fourier seriesrice pricekernel gaussianmapezero hunger |
| spellingShingle | Adnan Syawal Adilaha Sadikin Aqil Azmi Reswara M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Ardi Kurniawan COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY Barekeng fourier series rice price kernel gaussian mape zero hunger |
| title | COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY |
| title_full | COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY |
| title_fullStr | COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY |
| title_full_unstemmed | COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY |
| title_short | COMPARISION OF RICE PRICE PREDICTION RESULTS IN EAST JAVA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND GAUSSIAN KERNEL ESTIMATOR SIMULTANEOUSLY |
| title_sort | comparision of rice price prediction results in east java using fourier series estimator and gaussian kernel estimator simultaneously |
| topic | fourier series rice price kernel gaussian mape zero hunger |
| url | https://ojs3.unpatti.ac.id/index.php/barekeng/article/view/12712 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT adnansyawaladilahasadikin comparisionofricepricepredictionresultsineastjavausingfourierseriesestimatorandgaussiankernelestimatorsimultaneously AT aqilazmireswara comparisionofricepricepredictionresultsineastjavausingfourierseriesestimatorandgaussiankernelestimatorsimultaneously AT mfarizfadillahmardianto comparisionofricepricepredictionresultsineastjavausingfourierseriesestimatorandgaussiankernelestimatorsimultaneously AT ardikurniawan comparisionofricepricepredictionresultsineastjavausingfourierseriesestimatorandgaussiankernelestimatorsimultaneously |