Cross border railway trade and urban development in minority ethnic autonomous regions: causal analysis with double machine learning
The system of regional ethnic autonomy has endowed ethnic minority areas with greater autonomy in economic and social development, and exploring their regional economic development has a unique significance. This study used panel data from 120 ethnic autonomous counties in China from 2005 to 2021 to...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2025-12-01
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| Series: | Cogent Economics & Finance |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2522332 |
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| author | Chang Gao Lianjun Yao Xueyuan Wang |
| author_facet | Chang Gao Lianjun Yao Xueyuan Wang |
| author_sort | Chang Gao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The system of regional ethnic autonomy has endowed ethnic minority areas with greater autonomy in economic and social development, and exploring their regional economic development has a unique significance. This study used panel data from 120 ethnic autonomous counties in China from 2005 to 2021 to construct a double machine learning model to empirically test the impact of cross-border railway trade on urban development in ethnic autonomous counties and its mechanism of action. The results show: (1) Cross-border railway trade can significantly promote urban development in ethnically autonomous counties. Each unit increase can promote the urban development of ethnically autonomous counties by 35%. (2) The cross-border railway trade promotes urban development through three pathways: financial development, knowledge spillover, and industrial upgrading. (3) Cross-border railway trade has a better urban development effect on the ‘intermixed living on a large scale’ autonomous counties than the ‘concentrated settlement on a smaller scale’ autonomous counties; and it has a more significant urban development effect on the autonomous counties located in the western transportation corridor and benefited by the policy. The conclusions provide useful policy implications for economic development in regions with concentrated ethnic minorities. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e67e801fbc5a4675b911ebb375e2a9cb |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2332-2039 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cogent Economics & Finance |
| spelling | doaj-art-e67e801fbc5a4675b911ebb375e2a9cb2025-08-20T02:22:02ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Economics & Finance2332-20392025-12-0113110.1080/23322039.2025.2522332Cross border railway trade and urban development in minority ethnic autonomous regions: causal analysis with double machine learningChang Gao0Lianjun Yao1Xueyuan Wang2The School of Economics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, ChinaZhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power College, Hangzhou, ChinaThe School of Economics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, ChinaThe system of regional ethnic autonomy has endowed ethnic minority areas with greater autonomy in economic and social development, and exploring their regional economic development has a unique significance. This study used panel data from 120 ethnic autonomous counties in China from 2005 to 2021 to construct a double machine learning model to empirically test the impact of cross-border railway trade on urban development in ethnic autonomous counties and its mechanism of action. The results show: (1) Cross-border railway trade can significantly promote urban development in ethnically autonomous counties. Each unit increase can promote the urban development of ethnically autonomous counties by 35%. (2) The cross-border railway trade promotes urban development through three pathways: financial development, knowledge spillover, and industrial upgrading. (3) Cross-border railway trade has a better urban development effect on the ‘intermixed living on a large scale’ autonomous counties than the ‘concentrated settlement on a smaller scale’ autonomous counties; and it has a more significant urban development effect on the autonomous counties located in the western transportation corridor and benefited by the policy. The conclusions provide useful policy implications for economic development in regions with concentrated ethnic minorities.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2522332Cross-border railway tradeChina-Europe railway expressethnic autonomous countiesdouble machine learningurban developmentEconomics |
| spellingShingle | Chang Gao Lianjun Yao Xueyuan Wang Cross border railway trade and urban development in minority ethnic autonomous regions: causal analysis with double machine learning Cogent Economics & Finance Cross-border railway trade China-Europe railway express ethnic autonomous counties double machine learning urban development Economics |
| title | Cross border railway trade and urban development in minority ethnic autonomous regions: causal analysis with double machine learning |
| title_full | Cross border railway trade and urban development in minority ethnic autonomous regions: causal analysis with double machine learning |
| title_fullStr | Cross border railway trade and urban development in minority ethnic autonomous regions: causal analysis with double machine learning |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cross border railway trade and urban development in minority ethnic autonomous regions: causal analysis with double machine learning |
| title_short | Cross border railway trade and urban development in minority ethnic autonomous regions: causal analysis with double machine learning |
| title_sort | cross border railway trade and urban development in minority ethnic autonomous regions causal analysis with double machine learning |
| topic | Cross-border railway trade China-Europe railway express ethnic autonomous counties double machine learning urban development Economics |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23322039.2025.2522332 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT changgao crossborderrailwaytradeandurbandevelopmentinminorityethnicautonomousregionscausalanalysiswithdoublemachinelearning AT lianjunyao crossborderrailwaytradeandurbandevelopmentinminorityethnicautonomousregionscausalanalysiswithdoublemachinelearning AT xueyuanwang crossborderrailwaytradeandurbandevelopmentinminorityethnicautonomousregionscausalanalysiswithdoublemachinelearning |