Exploring the Influencing Factors of Surface Ozone Variability by Explainable Machine Learning: A Case Study in the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)

Exposure to high surface ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) concentrations, which is a major air pollutant and greenhouse gas, constitutes a significant public health concern, especially considering the potential adverse impact of climate change on future O<sub>3</sub> values. The impleme...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Roberta Valentina Gagliardi, Claudio Andenna
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-04-01
Series:Atmosphere
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/5/491
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Summary:Exposure to high surface ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) concentrations, which is a major air pollutant and greenhouse gas, constitutes a significant public health concern, especially considering the potential adverse impact of climate change on future O<sub>3</sub> values. The implementation of increasingly effective methods to assess the factors determining the formation and variability of O<sub>3</sub> is, therefore, of great significance. In this study, a methodological approach combining both supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms (MLAs) with the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method was used to understand the key factors behind O<sub>3</sub> variability and to explore the nonlinear relationships linking O<sub>3</sub> to these factors. The SHAP analysis carried out at different event scales indicated (i) the dominant role of the meteorological variables in driving O<sub>3</sub> variability, mainly relative humidity, wind speed, and temperature throughout the study period; (ii) an increase in the contribution of temperature, nitrogen oxides, and carbon monoxide to high O<sub>3</sub> concentrations during a selected pollution event; (iii) the predominant effect of wind speed and relative humidity in shaping the O<sub>3</sub> daily patterns clustered using the <i>k</i>-means technique. The results obtained are expected to be useful for the definition of effective measures to prevent and/or mitigate the health damage associated with ozone exposure.
ISSN:2073-4433