A Transfer Learning Combination Model for Annual National Electricity Consumption Forecasting in China

Accurate forecasting of annual national electricity consumption data is crucial for energy and economic development planning. However, the small amount of data and the complex influencing factors pose great challenges. Here we propose a novel transfer learning combination model for the 5-year foreca...

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Main Authors: Ling Liu, Jujie Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IEEE 2025-01-01
Series:IEEE Access
Subjects:
Online Access:https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11015997/
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author Ling Liu
Jujie Wang
author_facet Ling Liu
Jujie Wang
author_sort Ling Liu
collection DOAJ
description Accurate forecasting of annual national electricity consumption data is crucial for energy and economic development planning. However, the small amount of data and the complex influencing factors pose great challenges. Here we propose a novel transfer learning combination model for the 5-year forecasting of annual national electricity consumption data in China. To improve the forecasting accuracy, we adopted a data transfer learning approach to extend the training set of China by migrating relevant data from 17 developed countries. To increase the data information of training sets, a new data preprocessing procedure containing trend calculation and data extension was designed. To fully utilize the advantages of different models, a multi-model integration framework with a neural network weighting unit is designed. The comparison results show that the proposed model has the lowest errors, with the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.0105, 0.0002, and 0.3047, respectively.
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spelling doaj-art-e4752cef86224ca3a73dfd6542d6320f2025-08-20T03:19:32ZengIEEEIEEE Access2169-35362025-01-0113928829289010.1109/ACCESS.2025.357413711015997A Transfer Learning Combination Model for Annual National Electricity Consumption Forecasting in ChinaLing Liu0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9190-1629Jujie Wang1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0574-5661School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Hangzhou, ChinaSchool of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, ChinaAccurate forecasting of annual national electricity consumption data is crucial for energy and economic development planning. However, the small amount of data and the complex influencing factors pose great challenges. Here we propose a novel transfer learning combination model for the 5-year forecasting of annual national electricity consumption data in China. To improve the forecasting accuracy, we adopted a data transfer learning approach to extend the training set of China by migrating relevant data from 17 developed countries. To increase the data information of training sets, a new data preprocessing procedure containing trend calculation and data extension was designed. To fully utilize the advantages of different models, a multi-model integration framework with a neural network weighting unit is designed. The comparison results show that the proposed model has the lowest errors, with the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 0.0105, 0.0002, and 0.3047, respectively.https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11015997/Data extensiontransfer learningtrend attachment
spellingShingle Ling Liu
Jujie Wang
A Transfer Learning Combination Model for Annual National Electricity Consumption Forecasting in China
IEEE Access
Data extension
transfer learning
trend attachment
title A Transfer Learning Combination Model for Annual National Electricity Consumption Forecasting in China
title_full A Transfer Learning Combination Model for Annual National Electricity Consumption Forecasting in China
title_fullStr A Transfer Learning Combination Model for Annual National Electricity Consumption Forecasting in China
title_full_unstemmed A Transfer Learning Combination Model for Annual National Electricity Consumption Forecasting in China
title_short A Transfer Learning Combination Model for Annual National Electricity Consumption Forecasting in China
title_sort transfer learning combination model for annual national electricity consumption forecasting in china
topic Data extension
transfer learning
trend attachment
url https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11015997/
work_keys_str_mv AT lingliu atransferlearningcombinationmodelforannualnationalelectricityconsumptionforecastinginchina
AT jujiewang atransferlearningcombinationmodelforannualnationalelectricityconsumptionforecastinginchina
AT lingliu transferlearningcombinationmodelforannualnationalelectricityconsumptionforecastinginchina
AT jujiewang transferlearningcombinationmodelforannualnationalelectricityconsumptionforecastinginchina