Coupling coordination development of water resources-economy-ecology system in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics
Abstract The interaction between water resources, economy, and ecology significantly influences regional security and stability. This study developed an index system for assessing the coupling of water resources, economy, and ecology in Shanxi Province. Subsequently, a coupling coordination degree m...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81796-y |
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| author | Aili Wang Shuaitao Liang Shunsheng Wang |
| author_facet | Aili Wang Shuaitao Liang Shunsheng Wang |
| author_sort | Aili Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The interaction between water resources, economy, and ecology significantly influences regional security and stability. This study developed an index system for assessing the coupling of water resources, economy, and ecology in Shanxi Province. Subsequently, a coupling coordination degree model for water resources, economy, and ecology was established to assess and analyze the coupling coordination levels. Additionally, the study employed a grey correlation analysis to investigate the impact of 21 indicators on the system’s coupling coordination. A system dynamics simulation model was then constructed to forecast various coupling coordination scenarios up to 2035. Key findings included: (1) An overall upward trend in the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources, economy, and ecology. (2) Significant developmental disparities among the eleven cities in Shanxi Province, with some cities showing a decline in 2015. (3) The economic subsystem indicators in the water resources–economy–ecology model had a 34.02% correlation, exerting a marginally greater impact on the system’s coupling coordination than other subsystems, with GDP per capita being the most influential indicator. (4) Scenario simulations predict that the highest level of coupling coordination, reaching a coupling coordination degree of 0.94, will be achieved in 2035 under Scenario 5(pursuing comprehensive development). This study elucidates the interrelationship between water resources, the economy, and the ecosystem in Shanxi Province, and proposes a programme for adjusting indicators to support future sustainable development in the region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e36a1d8cf42642adaaa66e4cdfcdab4b |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-e36a1d8cf42642adaaa66e4cdfcdab4b2025-08-20T02:59:24ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-03-0115111710.1038/s41598-024-81796-yCoupling coordination development of water resources-economy-ecology system in Shanxi Province based on system dynamicsAili Wang0Shuaitao Liang1Shunsheng Wang2School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerSchool of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerSchool of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric PowerAbstract The interaction between water resources, economy, and ecology significantly influences regional security and stability. This study developed an index system for assessing the coupling of water resources, economy, and ecology in Shanxi Province. Subsequently, a coupling coordination degree model for water resources, economy, and ecology was established to assess and analyze the coupling coordination levels. Additionally, the study employed a grey correlation analysis to investigate the impact of 21 indicators on the system’s coupling coordination. A system dynamics simulation model was then constructed to forecast various coupling coordination scenarios up to 2035. Key findings included: (1) An overall upward trend in the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources, economy, and ecology. (2) Significant developmental disparities among the eleven cities in Shanxi Province, with some cities showing a decline in 2015. (3) The economic subsystem indicators in the water resources–economy–ecology model had a 34.02% correlation, exerting a marginally greater impact on the system’s coupling coordination than other subsystems, with GDP per capita being the most influential indicator. (4) Scenario simulations predict that the highest level of coupling coordination, reaching a coupling coordination degree of 0.94, will be achieved in 2035 under Scenario 5(pursuing comprehensive development). This study elucidates the interrelationship between water resources, the economy, and the ecosystem in Shanxi Province, and proposes a programme for adjusting indicators to support future sustainable development in the region.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81796-yCoupling coordination degreeGrey correlationComprehensive evaluation indexSystem dynamicsShanxi Province |
| spellingShingle | Aili Wang Shuaitao Liang Shunsheng Wang Coupling coordination development of water resources-economy-ecology system in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics Scientific Reports Coupling coordination degree Grey correlation Comprehensive evaluation index System dynamics Shanxi Province |
| title | Coupling coordination development of water resources-economy-ecology system in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics |
| title_full | Coupling coordination development of water resources-economy-ecology system in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics |
| title_fullStr | Coupling coordination development of water resources-economy-ecology system in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Coupling coordination development of water resources-economy-ecology system in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics |
| title_short | Coupling coordination development of water resources-economy-ecology system in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics |
| title_sort | coupling coordination development of water resources economy ecology system in shanxi province based on system dynamics |
| topic | Coupling coordination degree Grey correlation Comprehensive evaluation index System dynamics Shanxi Province |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81796-y |
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