Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest Ethiopia
Understanding and extracting noticeable patterns of malaria surveillance data at the district level are crucial for malaria prevention, control, and elimination progress. This study aimed to analyze spatiotemporal trends and nonparametric dynamics of malaria incidences in northwest Ethiopia, conside...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Tropical Medicine |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6355481 |
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| author | Teshager Zerihun Nigussie Temesgen T. Zewotir Essey Kebede Muluneh |
| author_facet | Teshager Zerihun Nigussie Temesgen T. Zewotir Essey Kebede Muluneh |
| author_sort | Teshager Zerihun Nigussie |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Understanding and extracting noticeable patterns of malaria surveillance data at the district level are crucial for malaria prevention, control, and elimination progress. This study aimed to analyze spatiotemporal trends and nonparametric dynamics of malaria incidences in northwest Ethiopia, considering spatial and temporal correlations. The data were analyzed using count regression spatiotemporal models under the Bayesian setups, and parameters were estimated using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). The region had a declining linear trend, and the average annual malaria incidence rate was 24.8 per 1,000 persons between 2012 and 2020. The malaria incidence rate was decreased by 0.984 (95% CI: 0.983, 0.986) per unit increase in months between July 2012 and June 2020. Districts found in the western and northwestern parts of the region had a steeper trend, while districts in the eastern and southern parts had a less steep trend than the average trend of the region. Compared to the regional level trend, the decreasing rate of malaria incidence trends was lower in most town administrations. The nonparametric dynamics showed that the monthly malaria incidence had a sinusoidal wave shape that varied throughout study periods. Malaria incidence had a decreasing linear trend changed across districts of the study region, and the steepness of trends of districts might not depend on incidences. Thus, an intervention and controlling mechanism that considers malaria incidences and district-specific differential trends would be indispensable to mitigate malaria transmission in the region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e2fc61373bee42f78d81b669f51e02ed |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-9694 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Tropical Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-e2fc61373bee42f78d81b669f51e02ed2025-02-03T06:14:14ZengWileyJournal of Tropical Medicine1687-96942022-01-01202210.1155/2022/6355481Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest EthiopiaTeshager Zerihun Nigussie0Temesgen T. Zewotir1Essey Kebede Muluneh2Department of StatisticsSchool of MathematicsSchool of Public HealthUnderstanding and extracting noticeable patterns of malaria surveillance data at the district level are crucial for malaria prevention, control, and elimination progress. This study aimed to analyze spatiotemporal trends and nonparametric dynamics of malaria incidences in northwest Ethiopia, considering spatial and temporal correlations. The data were analyzed using count regression spatiotemporal models under the Bayesian setups, and parameters were estimated using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). The region had a declining linear trend, and the average annual malaria incidence rate was 24.8 per 1,000 persons between 2012 and 2020. The malaria incidence rate was decreased by 0.984 (95% CI: 0.983, 0.986) per unit increase in months between July 2012 and June 2020. Districts found in the western and northwestern parts of the region had a steeper trend, while districts in the eastern and southern parts had a less steep trend than the average trend of the region. Compared to the regional level trend, the decreasing rate of malaria incidence trends was lower in most town administrations. The nonparametric dynamics showed that the monthly malaria incidence had a sinusoidal wave shape that varied throughout study periods. Malaria incidence had a decreasing linear trend changed across districts of the study region, and the steepness of trends of districts might not depend on incidences. Thus, an intervention and controlling mechanism that considers malaria incidences and district-specific differential trends would be indispensable to mitigate malaria transmission in the region.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6355481 |
| spellingShingle | Teshager Zerihun Nigussie Temesgen T. Zewotir Essey Kebede Muluneh Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest Ethiopia Journal of Tropical Medicine |
| title | Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest Ethiopia |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest Ethiopia |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal Trends and Distributions of Malaria Incidence in the Northwest Ethiopia |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal trends and distributions of malaria incidence in the northwest ethiopia |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6355481 |
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