Using ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate change
<p>Assessing the impact of climate change on range dynamics is difficult in the absence of large-extent distribution data. We developed a novel two-step approach as an instrument for biodiversity risk assessment. First, we established relationships between modelled loss of occupied grid cells...
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Pensoft Publishers
2014-09-01
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| Series: | Frontiers of Biogeography |
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| Online Access: | http://escholarship.org/uc/item/1kr0k9pg |
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| author | Sven Pompe Jan Hanspach Franz W. Badeck Stefan Klotz Helge Bruelheide Ingolf Kühn |
| author_facet | Sven Pompe Jan Hanspach Franz W. Badeck Stefan Klotz Helge Bruelheide Ingolf Kühn |
| author_sort | Sven Pompe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Assessing the impact of climate change on range dynamics is difficult in the absence of large-extent distribution data. We developed a novel two-step approach as an instrument for biodiversity risk assessment. First, we established relationships between modelled loss of occupied grid cells (‘range loss’, R<sup>2</sup>=0.29), or gain of currently unoccupied grid cells (‘range gain’, R<sup>2</sup>=0.30), for 195 plant species with distributional data under the A1FI climate change scenario up to 2080, and ecological and life history traits (life form, leaf persistence, ecological strategy, pollen vector, Ellenberg indicator values and characteristics derived from species’ ranges). Secondly, we used the resulting coefficients to predict climatic sensitivity for 688 plant species without spatially explicit distributional information. The models predicted range losses of 34±20 % (mean±standard deviation) and range gains of 3±4 %. Specifically, measures of species’ distribution, such as range size, were significantly related to both range loss and range gain. Other traits associated with range loss (e.g. life form, number of floristic zones) were not necessarily related to range gain (instead related to Ellenberg temperature indicator), indicating that two distinct sets of ecological processes govern range expansion and contraction. We found interaction effects between moisture indicator values and life form for range loss, and between moisture and temperature indicator values for range gain. The responses of species to climate change are complex and context dependent. Thus, our results highlight the importance of incorporating trait interactions in models to assess risks of climate change.</p><p> </p><p> </p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e2df328d2ee646feab7d0c96a2f8cb1c |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1948-6596 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2014-09-01 |
| publisher | Pensoft Publishers |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers of Biogeography |
| spelling | doaj-art-e2df328d2ee646feab7d0c96a2f8cb1c2025-08-20T02:28:10ZengPensoft PublishersFrontiers of Biogeography1948-65962014-09-0163ark:13030/qt1kr0k9pgUsing ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate changeSven Pompe0Jan Hanspach1Franz W. Badeck2Stefan Klotz3Helge Bruelheide4Ingolf Kühn51 UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; 2 TUM3 Leuphana University4 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research1 UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research; 5 German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig6 Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg; 5 German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig1 UFZ‑ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research 5 German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig 6 Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg<p>Assessing the impact of climate change on range dynamics is difficult in the absence of large-extent distribution data. We developed a novel two-step approach as an instrument for biodiversity risk assessment. First, we established relationships between modelled loss of occupied grid cells (‘range loss’, R<sup>2</sup>=0.29), or gain of currently unoccupied grid cells (‘range gain’, R<sup>2</sup>=0.30), for 195 plant species with distributional data under the A1FI climate change scenario up to 2080, and ecological and life history traits (life form, leaf persistence, ecological strategy, pollen vector, Ellenberg indicator values and characteristics derived from species’ ranges). Secondly, we used the resulting coefficients to predict climatic sensitivity for 688 plant species without spatially explicit distributional information. The models predicted range losses of 34±20 % (mean±standard deviation) and range gains of 3±4 %. Specifically, measures of species’ distribution, such as range size, were significantly related to both range loss and range gain. Other traits associated with range loss (e.g. life form, number of floristic zones) were not necessarily related to range gain (instead related to Ellenberg temperature indicator), indicating that two distinct sets of ecological processes govern range expansion and contraction. We found interaction effects between moisture indicator values and life form for range loss, and between moisture and temperature indicator values for range gain. The responses of species to climate change are complex and context dependent. Thus, our results highlight the importance of incorporating trait interactions in models to assess risks of climate change.</p><p> </p><p> </p>http://escholarship.org/uc/item/1kr0k9pgclimate change scenariosspecies traitsGermanylife formEllenberg values, range lossrange gainrange sizestrategy type |
| spellingShingle | Sven Pompe Jan Hanspach Franz W. Badeck Stefan Klotz Helge Bruelheide Ingolf Kühn Using ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate change Frontiers of Biogeography climate change scenarios species traits Germany life form Ellenberg values, range loss range gain range size strategy type |
| title | Using ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate change |
| title_full | Using ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate change |
| title_fullStr | Using ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate change |
| title_short | Using ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate change |
| title_sort | using ecological and life history characteristics for projecting species responses to climate change |
| topic | climate change scenarios species traits Germany life form Ellenberg values, range loss range gain range size strategy type |
| url | http://escholarship.org/uc/item/1kr0k9pg |
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