Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes
ABSTRACT Adapting to future climate change in flood‐prone landscapes will require climate‐resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessmen...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70056 |
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| author | Ganesh R. Ghimire Yan Liu Esther Parish Sudershan Gangrade Shih‐Chieh Kao Christopher DeRolph Karen Maguire Henriette Jager |
| author_facet | Ganesh R. Ghimire Yan Liu Esther Parish Sudershan Gangrade Shih‐Chieh Kao Christopher DeRolph Karen Maguire Henriette Jager |
| author_sort | Ganesh R. Ghimire |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Adapting to future climate change in flood‐prone landscapes will require climate‐resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river‐adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid‐Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias‐corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high‐resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near‐term future, at least two‐thirds of the streams will experience 100‐year floods more severe than the baseline 200‐year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200‐year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood‐resilient agricultural systems under climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e18a8450da0b4e3bb327a04e0e48b04a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1753-318X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Flood Risk Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-e18a8450da0b4e3bb327a04e0e48b04a2025-08-20T02:22:06ZengWileyJournal of Flood Risk Management1753-318X2025-06-01182n/an/a10.1111/jfr3.70056Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural LandscapesGanesh R. Ghimire0Yan Liu1Esther Parish2Sudershan Gangrade3Shih‐Chieh Kao4Christopher DeRolph5Karen Maguire6Henriette Jager7Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge Tennessee USAComputational Sciences and Engineering Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge Tennessee USAEnvironmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge Tennessee USAEnvironmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge Tennessee USAEnvironmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge Tennessee USAEnvironmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge Tennessee USAEconomic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture Kansas City Missouri USAEnvironmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge Tennessee USAABSTRACT Adapting to future climate change in flood‐prone landscapes will require climate‐resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river‐adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid‐Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias‐corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high‐resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near‐term future, at least two‐thirds of the streams will experience 100‐year floods more severe than the baseline 200‐year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200‐year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood‐resilient agricultural systems under climate change.https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70056agriculturebioenergyclimate changeecosystem servicesfloodingHAND |
| spellingShingle | Ganesh R. Ghimire Yan Liu Esther Parish Sudershan Gangrade Shih‐Chieh Kao Christopher DeRolph Karen Maguire Henriette Jager Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes Journal of Flood Risk Management agriculture bioenergy climate change ecosystem services flooding HAND |
| title | Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes |
| title_full | Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes |
| title_fullStr | Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes |
| title_short | Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes |
| title_sort | integrated modeling driven evaluation of opportunities for climate resilient perennial biomass crop plantings in flood prone agricultural landscapes |
| topic | agriculture bioenergy climate change ecosystem services flooding HAND |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70056 |
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