Isolating the net effect of multiple government interventions with an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework: empirical evidence from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China
Objective By using a data-driven statistical approach, we isolated the net effect of multiple government interventions that were simultaneously implemented during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China.Design, data sources and eligibility criteria We gathered epidemiological data and governme...
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BMJ Publishing Group
2022-06-01
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| author | Jie Liu Boya Gao Helen Xiaohui Bao Zhenwu Shi |
| author_facet | Jie Liu Boya Gao Helen Xiaohui Bao Zhenwu Shi |
| author_sort | Jie Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Objective By using a data-driven statistical approach, we isolated the net effect of multiple government interventions that were simultaneously implemented during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China.Design, data sources and eligibility criteria We gathered epidemiological data and government interventions data of nine cities with local outbreaks during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China. We employed the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework model to analyse the different pathways of transmission between cities with government interventions implementation and those without. We introduced new components to the standard SEIR model and investigated five themes of government interventions against COVID-19 pandemic.Data extraction and synthesis We extracted information including study objective, design, methods, main findings and implications. These were tabulated and a narrative synthesis was undertaken given the diverse research designs, methods and implications.Results Supported by extensive empirical validation, our results indicated that the net effect of some specific government interventions (including masks, environmental cleaning and disinfection, tracing, tracking and 14-day centralised quarantining close contacts) had been significantly underestimated in the previous investigation. We also identified important moderators and mediators for the effect of certain government interventions, such as closure of shopping mall and restaurant in the medium-risk level areas, etc. Linking the COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics with the implementation timing of government interventions, we detected that the earlier implementation of some specific government interventions (including targeted partial lockdown, tracing, tracking and 14-day centralised quarantining close contacts) achieved the strongest and most timely effect on controlling COVID-19, especially at the early period of local outbreak.Conclusions These findings provide important scientific information for decisions regarding which and when government interventions should be implemented to fight against COVID-19 in China and beyond. The proposed analytical framework is useful for policy-making in future endemic and pandemic as well. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e126ac8d7732401ab43131526d0e8b00 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2044-6055 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
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| series | BMJ Open |
| spelling | doaj-art-e126ac8d7732401ab43131526d0e8b002025-02-01T13:55:09ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open2044-60552022-06-0112610.1136/bmjopen-2022-060996Isolating the net effect of multiple government interventions with an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework: empirical evidence from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in ChinaJie Liu0Boya Gao1Helen Xiaohui Bao2Zhenwu Shi3Department of Neurosurgery, The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, Shandong, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, ChinaDepartment of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKSchool of Civil Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, ChinaObjective By using a data-driven statistical approach, we isolated the net effect of multiple government interventions that were simultaneously implemented during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China.Design, data sources and eligibility criteria We gathered epidemiological data and government interventions data of nine cities with local outbreaks during the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China. We employed the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework model to analyse the different pathways of transmission between cities with government interventions implementation and those without. We introduced new components to the standard SEIR model and investigated five themes of government interventions against COVID-19 pandemic.Data extraction and synthesis We extracted information including study objective, design, methods, main findings and implications. These were tabulated and a narrative synthesis was undertaken given the diverse research designs, methods and implications.Results Supported by extensive empirical validation, our results indicated that the net effect of some specific government interventions (including masks, environmental cleaning and disinfection, tracing, tracking and 14-day centralised quarantining close contacts) had been significantly underestimated in the previous investigation. We also identified important moderators and mediators for the effect of certain government interventions, such as closure of shopping mall and restaurant in the medium-risk level areas, etc. Linking the COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics with the implementation timing of government interventions, we detected that the earlier implementation of some specific government interventions (including targeted partial lockdown, tracing, tracking and 14-day centralised quarantining close contacts) achieved the strongest and most timely effect on controlling COVID-19, especially at the early period of local outbreak.Conclusions These findings provide important scientific information for decisions regarding which and when government interventions should be implemented to fight against COVID-19 in China and beyond. The proposed analytical framework is useful for policy-making in future endemic and pandemic as well.https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/6/e060996.full |
| spellingShingle | Jie Liu Boya Gao Helen Xiaohui Bao Zhenwu Shi Isolating the net effect of multiple government interventions with an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework: empirical evidence from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China BMJ Open |
| title | Isolating the net effect of multiple government interventions with an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework: empirical evidence from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China |
| title_full | Isolating the net effect of multiple government interventions with an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework: empirical evidence from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China |
| title_fullStr | Isolating the net effect of multiple government interventions with an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework: empirical evidence from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Isolating the net effect of multiple government interventions with an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework: empirical evidence from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China |
| title_short | Isolating the net effect of multiple government interventions with an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) framework: empirical evidence from the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic in China |
| title_sort | isolating the net effect of multiple government interventions with an extended susceptible exposed infectious recovered seir framework empirical evidence from the second wave of covid 19 pandemic in china |
| url | https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/6/e060996.full |
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