Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios
Aligned with the war in Ukraine, Russia has significantly withheld natural gas exports to Europe since 2021. As there are no EU-wide sanctions on imports of Russian natural gas, the Ukraine transit as well as imports via Turkey and LNG have remained active during 2022–24. However, the Russian-Ukrain...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25000094 |
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| author | Lukas Barner Franziska Holz Christian von Hirschhausen Claudia Kemfert |
| author_facet | Lukas Barner Franziska Holz Christian von Hirschhausen Claudia Kemfert |
| author_sort | Lukas Barner |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Aligned with the war in Ukraine, Russia has significantly withheld natural gas exports to Europe since 2021. As there are no EU-wide sanctions on imports of Russian natural gas, the Ukraine transit as well as imports via Turkey and LNG have remained active during 2022–24. However, the Russian-Ukrainian transit agreement expires at the end of 2024 and discussions about new sanctions on natural gas as well as the threat of further supply disruptions continue to pose uncertainty for European markets. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM) to investigate the necessity of Russian gas exports for European gas consumption. Our results of different scenarios indicate that the EU’s gas consumption can be largely satisfied in all demand and Russian supply scenarios. This result holds also for a complete disruption of Russian exports to the EU thanks to diversification and some demand side response. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e080761890ec451eadc443a69b8a457d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj-art-e080761890ec451eadc443a69b8a457d2025-02-05T04:31:54ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2025-03-0158101646Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenariosLukas Barner0Franziska Holz1Christian von Hirschhausen2Claudia Kemfert3Technische Universität Berlin, Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Straße des 17. Juni 135, Sekr. H33, Berlin, 10623, Germany; German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Department Energy, Transportation, Environment, Mohrenstraße 58, Berlin, 10117, GermanyGerman Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Department Energy, Transportation, Environment, Mohrenstraße 58, Berlin, 10117, Germany; Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management (IØT), Alfred Getz vei 3, Trondheim, 7491, Norway; Corresponding author at: Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management (IØT), Alfred Getz vei 3, Trondheim, 7491, Norway.Technische Universität Berlin, Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Straße des 17. Juni 135, Sekr. H33, Berlin, 10623, Germany; German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Department Energy, Transportation, Environment, Mohrenstraße 58, Berlin, 10117, GermanyGerman Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Department Energy, Transportation, Environment, Mohrenstraße 58, Berlin, 10117, Germany; Leuphana University Lueneburg, Lueneburg, GermanyAligned with the war in Ukraine, Russia has significantly withheld natural gas exports to Europe since 2021. As there are no EU-wide sanctions on imports of Russian natural gas, the Ukraine transit as well as imports via Turkey and LNG have remained active during 2022–24. However, the Russian-Ukrainian transit agreement expires at the end of 2024 and discussions about new sanctions on natural gas as well as the threat of further supply disruptions continue to pose uncertainty for European markets. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM) to investigate the necessity of Russian gas exports for European gas consumption. Our results of different scenarios indicate that the EU’s gas consumption can be largely satisfied in all demand and Russian supply scenarios. This result holds also for a complete disruption of Russian exports to the EU thanks to diversification and some demand side response.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25000094Natural gasEuropeSecurity of supplyEquilibrium modelingLNGRussia |
| spellingShingle | Lukas Barner Franziska Holz Christian von Hirschhausen Claudia Kemfert Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios Energy Strategy Reviews Natural gas Europe Security of supply Equilibrium modeling LNG Russia |
| title | Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios |
| title_full | Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios |
| title_short | Is Russian gas still needed in the European Union? Model-based analysis of long-term scenarios |
| title_sort | is russian gas still needed in the european union model based analysis of long term scenarios |
| topic | Natural gas Europe Security of supply Equilibrium modeling LNG Russia |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25000094 |
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