Endemic coexistence and competition of virus variants under partial cross-immunity
In this study, we developed a mathematical framework, based on the SIR model, to study the dynamics of two competing virus variants with different characteristics of transmissibility, immune escape, and cross-immunity. The model includes variant-specific transmission and recovery rates and enables f...
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| Language: | English |
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AIMS Press
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Electronic Research Archive |
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| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/era.2025050 |
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| author | Shirali Kadyrov Farkhod Haydarov Khudoyor Mamayusupov Komil Mustayev |
| author_facet | Shirali Kadyrov Farkhod Haydarov Khudoyor Mamayusupov Komil Mustayev |
| author_sort | Shirali Kadyrov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, we developed a mathematical framework, based on the SIR model, to study the dynamics of two competing virus variants with different characteristics of transmissibility, immune escape, and cross-immunity. The model includes variant-specific transmission and recovery rates and enables flexible parameterization of partial and waning cross-immunity. We conducted stability and bifurcation analyses and numerical simulations to explore the conditions of coexistence, dominance, and extinction of the variants, studying variations in epidemiological parameters that affect endemic prevalence and infection ratios. Our results indicated that transmission rates, levels of cross-immunity, and immunity waning rates are critical in determining disease outcomes, which influence variant prevalence and competitive dynamics. The sensitivity analysis provided the relative importance of these parameters and provided valuable insight into designing intervention strategies. This work contributes to furthering our understanding of multi-variant epidemic dynamics and lays the bedrock for tackling complex interactions involving arising virus variants, finding applications in real-world public health planning. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dfc6beb7139f4925a0a48bd7c1e86d9a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2688-1594 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | AIMS Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Electronic Research Archive |
| spelling | doaj-art-dfc6beb7139f4925a0a48bd7c1e86d9a2025-08-20T02:08:24ZengAIMS PressElectronic Research Archive2688-15942025-02-013321120114310.3934/era.2025050Endemic coexistence and competition of virus variants under partial cross-immunityShirali Kadyrov0Farkhod Haydarov1Khudoyor Mamayusupov2Komil Mustayev3Department of General Education, New Uzbekistan University, Movarounnahr street 1, Tashkent, UzbekistanDepartment of General Education, New Uzbekistan University, Movarounnahr street 1, Tashkent, UzbekistanDepartment of General Education, New Uzbekistan University, Movarounnahr street 1, Tashkent, UzbekistanDepartment of General Education, New Uzbekistan University, Movarounnahr street 1, Tashkent, UzbekistanIn this study, we developed a mathematical framework, based on the SIR model, to study the dynamics of two competing virus variants with different characteristics of transmissibility, immune escape, and cross-immunity. The model includes variant-specific transmission and recovery rates and enables flexible parameterization of partial and waning cross-immunity. We conducted stability and bifurcation analyses and numerical simulations to explore the conditions of coexistence, dominance, and extinction of the variants, studying variations in epidemiological parameters that affect endemic prevalence and infection ratios. Our results indicated that transmission rates, levels of cross-immunity, and immunity waning rates are critical in determining disease outcomes, which influence variant prevalence and competitive dynamics. The sensitivity analysis provided the relative importance of these parameters and provided valuable insight into designing intervention strategies. This work contributes to furthering our understanding of multi-variant epidemic dynamics and lays the bedrock for tackling complex interactions involving arising virus variants, finding applications in real-world public health planning.https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/era.2025050multi-variant dynamicssir modelcross-immunityvirus competitionendemic prevalencebifurcation analysisstability analysisepidemic modelingpublic health strategy |
| spellingShingle | Shirali Kadyrov Farkhod Haydarov Khudoyor Mamayusupov Komil Mustayev Endemic coexistence and competition of virus variants under partial cross-immunity Electronic Research Archive multi-variant dynamics sir model cross-immunity virus competition endemic prevalence bifurcation analysis stability analysis epidemic modeling public health strategy |
| title | Endemic coexistence and competition of virus variants under partial cross-immunity |
| title_full | Endemic coexistence and competition of virus variants under partial cross-immunity |
| title_fullStr | Endemic coexistence and competition of virus variants under partial cross-immunity |
| title_full_unstemmed | Endemic coexistence and competition of virus variants under partial cross-immunity |
| title_short | Endemic coexistence and competition of virus variants under partial cross-immunity |
| title_sort | endemic coexistence and competition of virus variants under partial cross immunity |
| topic | multi-variant dynamics sir model cross-immunity virus competition endemic prevalence bifurcation analysis stability analysis epidemic modeling public health strategy |
| url | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/era.2025050 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shiralikadyrov endemiccoexistenceandcompetitionofvirusvariantsunderpartialcrossimmunity AT farkhodhaydarov endemiccoexistenceandcompetitionofvirusvariantsunderpartialcrossimmunity AT khudoyormamayusupov endemiccoexistenceandcompetitionofvirusvariantsunderpartialcrossimmunity AT komilmustayev endemiccoexistenceandcompetitionofvirusvariantsunderpartialcrossimmunity |