Machine-Learning Methods Estimating Flights’ Hidden Parameters for the Prediction of KPIs

Complex microscopic simulation models of strategic Air Traffic Management (ATM) performance assessment and decision-making are hindered by several factors. One of the most important is the existence of hidden parameters—such as aircraft take-off weight (TOW) and the selected cost index (CI)—which, i...

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Main Authors: George Vouros, Ioannis Ioannidis, Georgios Santipantakis, Theodore Tranos, Konstantinos Blekas, Marc Melgosa, Xavier Prats
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-11-01
Series:Aerospace
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/11/11/937
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author George Vouros
Ioannis Ioannidis
Georgios Santipantakis
Theodore Tranos
Konstantinos Blekas
Marc Melgosa
Xavier Prats
author_facet George Vouros
Ioannis Ioannidis
Georgios Santipantakis
Theodore Tranos
Konstantinos Blekas
Marc Melgosa
Xavier Prats
author_sort George Vouros
collection DOAJ
description Complex microscopic simulation models of strategic Air Traffic Management (ATM) performance assessment and decision-making are hindered by several factors. One of the most important is the existence of hidden parameters—such as aircraft take-off weight (TOW) and the selected cost index (CI)—which, if known, would allow for more effective performance modeling methodologies for assessing Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) at various levels of abstraction/detail, e.g., system-wide, or at the level of individual flights. This research proposes a data-driven methodology for the estimation of flights’ hidden parameters combining mechanistic and advanced Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) models. Aiming at microsimulation models, our goal is to study the effect of these estimations on the prediction of flights’ KPIs. In so doing, we propose a novel methodology according to which data-driven methods are trained given optimal trajectories (produced by mechanistic models) corresponding to known hidden parameter values, with the aim of predicting hidden parameters’ values of unseen trajectories. The results show that estimations of hidden parameters support the accurate prediction of KPIs regarding the efficiency of flights: fuel consumption, gate-to-gate time and distance flown.
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spelling doaj-art-dd80ff0973154d4eaf90fb62f4014e822025-08-20T01:53:48ZengMDPI AGAerospace2226-43102024-11-01111193710.3390/aerospace11110937Machine-Learning Methods Estimating Flights’ Hidden Parameters for the Prediction of KPIsGeorge Vouros0Ioannis Ioannidis1Georgios Santipantakis2Theodore Tranos3Konstantinos Blekas4Marc Melgosa5Xavier Prats6Department of Digital Systems, School of Information and Communication Technologies, University of Piraeus, 18534 Piraeus, GreeceDepartment of Digital Systems, School of Information and Communication Technologies, University of Piraeus, 18534 Piraeus, GreeceDepartment of Digital Systems, School of Information and Communication Technologies, University of Piraeus, 18534 Piraeus, GreeceDepartment of Computer Science and Engineering, Polytechnic School, University of Ioannina, 45110 Ioannina, GreeceDepartment of Computer Science and Engineering, Polytechnic School, University of Ioannina, 45110 Ioannina, GreeceDivision of Aerospace Engineering, Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC BarcelonaTECH), c/Esteve Terradas 7, 08860 Castelldefels, SpainDivision of Aerospace Engineering, Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC BarcelonaTECH), c/Esteve Terradas 7, 08860 Castelldefels, SpainComplex microscopic simulation models of strategic Air Traffic Management (ATM) performance assessment and decision-making are hindered by several factors. One of the most important is the existence of hidden parameters—such as aircraft take-off weight (TOW) and the selected cost index (CI)—which, if known, would allow for more effective performance modeling methodologies for assessing Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) at various levels of abstraction/detail, e.g., system-wide, or at the level of individual flights. This research proposes a data-driven methodology for the estimation of flights’ hidden parameters combining mechanistic and advanced Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) models. Aiming at microsimulation models, our goal is to study the effect of these estimations on the prediction of flights’ KPIs. In so doing, we propose a novel methodology according to which data-driven methods are trained given optimal trajectories (produced by mechanistic models) corresponding to known hidden parameter values, with the aim of predicting hidden parameters’ values of unseen trajectories. The results show that estimations of hidden parameters support the accurate prediction of KPIs regarding the efficiency of flights: fuel consumption, gate-to-gate time and distance flown.https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/11/11/937predictionhidden parametersKPIstake-off weightcost indexdeep learning
spellingShingle George Vouros
Ioannis Ioannidis
Georgios Santipantakis
Theodore Tranos
Konstantinos Blekas
Marc Melgosa
Xavier Prats
Machine-Learning Methods Estimating Flights’ Hidden Parameters for the Prediction of KPIs
Aerospace
prediction
hidden parameters
KPIs
take-off weight
cost index
deep learning
title Machine-Learning Methods Estimating Flights’ Hidden Parameters for the Prediction of KPIs
title_full Machine-Learning Methods Estimating Flights’ Hidden Parameters for the Prediction of KPIs
title_fullStr Machine-Learning Methods Estimating Flights’ Hidden Parameters for the Prediction of KPIs
title_full_unstemmed Machine-Learning Methods Estimating Flights’ Hidden Parameters for the Prediction of KPIs
title_short Machine-Learning Methods Estimating Flights’ Hidden Parameters for the Prediction of KPIs
title_sort machine learning methods estimating flights hidden parameters for the prediction of kpis
topic prediction
hidden parameters
KPIs
take-off weight
cost index
deep learning
url https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/11/11/937
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