Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China
Study region: Tianshan Mountain region of China. Study focus: Global warming alters precipitation patterns, with future scenarios predicting variability being greater than merely changes in rainfall amounts. Changes have affected the water cycle and resource stability in the Tianshan Mountain region...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824004737 |
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| author | Xianglin Lyu Junkai Du Yaqin Qiu Yangwen Jia Chunfeng Hao Hao Dong |
| author_facet | Xianglin Lyu Junkai Du Yaqin Qiu Yangwen Jia Chunfeng Hao Hao Dong |
| author_sort | Xianglin Lyu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Tianshan Mountain region of China. Study focus: Global warming alters precipitation patterns, with future scenarios predicting variability being greater than merely changes in rainfall amounts. Changes have affected the water cycle and resource stability in the Tianshan Mountain region in China (TM), the primary water source of Central Asia. Based on ensemble precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, this study analyzed multiscale changes in precipitation variability in the TM for the near (2030–2065) and far future (2066–2100) using Shannon entropy, offering valuable insights for water resource management and future challenges. New hydrological insights for the region: A negative correlation was observed between precipitation variability and precipitation, with areas experiencing high precipitation usually having low variability. In the near future, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP245) scenario indicated higher interannual precipitation variability, whereas the SSP585 scenario showed lower variability. In the far future, the SSP585 scenario showed an increase in interannual and a decrease in intra-annual variability, whereas the SSP245 scenario showed an opposite trend. Seasonal perspectives showed that summer interannual variability decreased in the future, with increases in spring and fall. Owing to changes in precipitation patterns, water resource availability increased in the future, with the SSP585 scenario showing a greater increase than the SSP245 scenario. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dd0140e0b3e942fe9ebc5a70f2424dca |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj-art-dd0140e0b3e942fe9ebc5a70f2424dca2025-01-22T05:42:07ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-02-0157102124Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of ChinaXianglin Lyu0Junkai Du1Yaqin Qiu2Yangwen Jia3Chunfeng Hao4Hao Dong5State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaCorrespondence to: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Department of Water Resources 1 YU-YUAN-TAN SOUTH ROAD Beijing 100038.; State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, ChinaStudy region: Tianshan Mountain region of China. Study focus: Global warming alters precipitation patterns, with future scenarios predicting variability being greater than merely changes in rainfall amounts. Changes have affected the water cycle and resource stability in the Tianshan Mountain region in China (TM), the primary water source of Central Asia. Based on ensemble precipitation data from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset, this study analyzed multiscale changes in precipitation variability in the TM for the near (2030–2065) and far future (2066–2100) using Shannon entropy, offering valuable insights for water resource management and future challenges. New hydrological insights for the region: A negative correlation was observed between precipitation variability and precipitation, with areas experiencing high precipitation usually having low variability. In the near future, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP245) scenario indicated higher interannual precipitation variability, whereas the SSP585 scenario showed lower variability. In the far future, the SSP585 scenario showed an increase in interannual and a decrease in intra-annual variability, whereas the SSP245 scenario showed an opposite trend. Seasonal perspectives showed that summer interannual variability decreased in the future, with increases in spring and fall. Owing to changes in precipitation patterns, water resource availability increased in the future, with the SSP585 scenario showing a greater increase than the SSP245 scenario.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824004737EntropyStandardized variability indexTianshanPrecipitation variabilityWater resources |
| spellingShingle | Xianglin Lyu Junkai Du Yaqin Qiu Yangwen Jia Chunfeng Hao Hao Dong Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Entropy Standardized variability index Tianshan Precipitation variability Water resources |
| title | Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the tianshan mountain region of china |
| topic | Entropy Standardized variability index Tianshan Precipitation variability Water resources |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581824004737 |
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