Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index

Introduction Robust metrics for national-level preparedness are critical for assessing global resilience to epidemic and pandemic outbreaks. However, existing preparedness assessments focus primarily on public health systems or specific legislative frameworks, and do not measure other essential capa...

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Main Authors: Ben Oppenheim, Mark Gallivan, Nita K Madhav, Naor Brown, Volodymyr Serhiyenko, Nathan D Wolfe, Patrick Ayscue
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2019-02-01
Series:BMJ Global Health
Online Access:https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/1/e001157.full
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author Ben Oppenheim
Mark Gallivan
Nita K Madhav
Naor Brown
Volodymyr Serhiyenko
Nathan D Wolfe
Patrick Ayscue
author_facet Ben Oppenheim
Mark Gallivan
Nita K Madhav
Naor Brown
Volodymyr Serhiyenko
Nathan D Wolfe
Patrick Ayscue
author_sort Ben Oppenheim
collection DOAJ
description Introduction Robust metrics for national-level preparedness are critical for assessing global resilience to epidemic and pandemic outbreaks. However, existing preparedness assessments focus primarily on public health systems or specific legislative frameworks, and do not measure other essential capacities that enable and support public health preparedness and response.Methods We developed an Epidemic Preparedness Index (EPI) to assess national-level preparedness. The EPI is global, covering 188 countries. It consists of five subindices measuring each country’s economic resources, public health communications, infrastructure, public health systems and institutional capacity. To evaluate the construct validity of the EPI, we tested its correlation with proxy measures for preparedness and response capacity, including the timeliness of outbreak detection and reporting, as well as vaccination rates during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.Results The most prepared countries were concentrated in Europe and North America, while the least prepared countries clustered in Central and West Africa and Southeast Asia. Better prepared countries were found to report infectious disease outbreaks more quickly and to have vaccinated a larger proportion of their population during the 2009 pandemic.Conclusion The EPI measures a country’s capacity to detect and respond to infectious disease events. Existing tools, such as the Joint External Evaluation (JEE), have been designed to measure preparedness within a country over time. The EPI complements the JEE by providing a holistic view of preparedness and is constructed to support comparative risk assessment between countries. The index can be updated rapidly to generate global estimates of pandemic preparedness that can inform strategy and resource allocation.
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spelling doaj-art-dc6ba9b8514643deb6b336a2942118032025-08-20T01:56:34ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Global Health2059-79082019-02-014110.1136/bmjgh-2018-001157Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness IndexBen Oppenheim0Mark Gallivan1Nita K Madhav2Naor Brown3Volodymyr Serhiyenko4Nathan D Wolfe5Patrick Ayscue6Ginkgo Bioworks, Emeryville, California, USAMetabiota, San Francisco, California, USAMetabiota, San Francisco, California, USAMetabiota, San Francisco, California, USAMetabiota, San Francisco, California, USAMetabiota, San Francisco, California, USAChan Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, California, USAIntroduction Robust metrics for national-level preparedness are critical for assessing global resilience to epidemic and pandemic outbreaks. However, existing preparedness assessments focus primarily on public health systems or specific legislative frameworks, and do not measure other essential capacities that enable and support public health preparedness and response.Methods We developed an Epidemic Preparedness Index (EPI) to assess national-level preparedness. The EPI is global, covering 188 countries. It consists of five subindices measuring each country’s economic resources, public health communications, infrastructure, public health systems and institutional capacity. To evaluate the construct validity of the EPI, we tested its correlation with proxy measures for preparedness and response capacity, including the timeliness of outbreak detection and reporting, as well as vaccination rates during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.Results The most prepared countries were concentrated in Europe and North America, while the least prepared countries clustered in Central and West Africa and Southeast Asia. Better prepared countries were found to report infectious disease outbreaks more quickly and to have vaccinated a larger proportion of their population during the 2009 pandemic.Conclusion The EPI measures a country’s capacity to detect and respond to infectious disease events. Existing tools, such as the Joint External Evaluation (JEE), have been designed to measure preparedness within a country over time. The EPI complements the JEE by providing a holistic view of preparedness and is constructed to support comparative risk assessment between countries. The index can be updated rapidly to generate global estimates of pandemic preparedness that can inform strategy and resource allocation.https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/1/e001157.full
spellingShingle Ben Oppenheim
Mark Gallivan
Nita K Madhav
Naor Brown
Volodymyr Serhiyenko
Nathan D Wolfe
Patrick Ayscue
Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index
BMJ Global Health
title Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index
title_full Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index
title_fullStr Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index
title_full_unstemmed Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index
title_short Assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: development and application of an Epidemic Preparedness Index
title_sort assessing global preparedness for the next pandemic development and application of an epidemic preparedness index
url https://gh.bmj.com/content/4/1/e001157.full
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