Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea

Abstract The study investigates Power Dissipation Index (PDI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) over the global ocean from 1982 to 2021. PDI of TCs over the Arabian Sea (AS) has a significant positive correlation wi...

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Main Authors: Neeru Jaiswal, Randhir Singh
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2025-03-01
Series:Geophysical Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109725
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author Neeru Jaiswal
Randhir Singh
author_facet Neeru Jaiswal
Randhir Singh
author_sort Neeru Jaiswal
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The study investigates Power Dissipation Index (PDI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) over the global ocean from 1982 to 2021. PDI of TCs over the Arabian Sea (AS) has a significant positive correlation with SST over the East Central Pacific Ocean (ECPO). This relationship appears to develop in March and peaks during the monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons. Conversely, PDI of TCs over the Bay of Bengal has a significant negative association with SST over the Niño region. Regression analysis and numerical simulations reveal that heating over ECPO produces anomalous walker circulation, leading to favorable conditions for TC genesis and intensification over AS. This study has implication for forecasting TC activity and understanding how SST variability affects TCs over NIO in a changing climate.
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series Geophysical Research Letters
spelling doaj-art-dc476bf8acf1456d87b51d7b4818851f2025-08-20T02:16:05ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01525n/an/a10.1029/2024GL109725Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian SeaNeeru Jaiswal0Randhir Singh1Atmospheric Sciences Division Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Group EPSA Space Applications Centre (SAC), ISRO Ahmedabad Gujarat IndiaAtmospheric Sciences Division Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Group EPSA Space Applications Centre (SAC), ISRO Ahmedabad Gujarat IndiaAbstract The study investigates Power Dissipation Index (PDI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) over the global ocean from 1982 to 2021. PDI of TCs over the Arabian Sea (AS) has a significant positive correlation with SST over the East Central Pacific Ocean (ECPO). This relationship appears to develop in March and peaks during the monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons. Conversely, PDI of TCs over the Bay of Bengal has a significant negative association with SST over the Niño region. Regression analysis and numerical simulations reveal that heating over ECPO produces anomalous walker circulation, leading to favorable conditions for TC genesis and intensification over AS. This study has implication for forecasting TC activity and understanding how SST variability affects TCs over NIO in a changing climate.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109725tropical cyclonepower dissipation indexsea surface temperaturelinear baroclinic modelArabian seaBay of Bengal
spellingShingle Neeru Jaiswal
Randhir Singh
Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea
Geophysical Research Letters
tropical cyclone
power dissipation index
sea surface temperature
linear baroclinic model
Arabian sea
Bay of Bengal
title Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea
title_full Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea
title_fullStr Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea
title_full_unstemmed Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea
title_short Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea
title_sort sea surface temperature in the east central pacific ocean as a new potential predictor of post monsoon cyclonic activity over the arabian sea
topic tropical cyclone
power dissipation index
sea surface temperature
linear baroclinic model
Arabian sea
Bay of Bengal
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109725
work_keys_str_mv AT neerujaiswal seasurfacetemperatureintheeastcentralpacificoceanasanewpotentialpredictorofpostmonsooncyclonicactivityoverthearabiansea
AT randhirsingh seasurfacetemperatureintheeastcentralpacificoceanasanewpotentialpredictorofpostmonsooncyclonicactivityoverthearabiansea