Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea
Abstract The study investigates Power Dissipation Index (PDI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) over the global ocean from 1982 to 2021. PDI of TCs over the Arabian Sea (AS) has a significant positive correlation wi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109725 |
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| author | Neeru Jaiswal Randhir Singh |
| author_facet | Neeru Jaiswal Randhir Singh |
| author_sort | Neeru Jaiswal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The study investigates Power Dissipation Index (PDI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) over the global ocean from 1982 to 2021. PDI of TCs over the Arabian Sea (AS) has a significant positive correlation with SST over the East Central Pacific Ocean (ECPO). This relationship appears to develop in March and peaks during the monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons. Conversely, PDI of TCs over the Bay of Bengal has a significant negative association with SST over the Niño region. Regression analysis and numerical simulations reveal that heating over ECPO produces anomalous walker circulation, leading to favorable conditions for TC genesis and intensification over AS. This study has implication for forecasting TC activity and understanding how SST variability affects TCs over NIO in a changing climate. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-dc476bf8acf1456d87b51d7b4818851f |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-dc476bf8acf1456d87b51d7b4818851f2025-08-20T02:16:05ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-03-01525n/an/a10.1029/2024GL109725Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian SeaNeeru Jaiswal0Randhir Singh1Atmospheric Sciences Division Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Group EPSA Space Applications Centre (SAC), ISRO Ahmedabad Gujarat IndiaAtmospheric Sciences Division Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Group EPSA Space Applications Centre (SAC), ISRO Ahmedabad Gujarat IndiaAbstract The study investigates Power Dissipation Index (PDI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST) over the global ocean from 1982 to 2021. PDI of TCs over the Arabian Sea (AS) has a significant positive correlation with SST over the East Central Pacific Ocean (ECPO). This relationship appears to develop in March and peaks during the monsoon and post‐monsoon seasons. Conversely, PDI of TCs over the Bay of Bengal has a significant negative association with SST over the Niño region. Regression analysis and numerical simulations reveal that heating over ECPO produces anomalous walker circulation, leading to favorable conditions for TC genesis and intensification over AS. This study has implication for forecasting TC activity and understanding how SST variability affects TCs over NIO in a changing climate.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109725tropical cyclonepower dissipation indexsea surface temperaturelinear baroclinic modelArabian seaBay of Bengal |
| spellingShingle | Neeru Jaiswal Randhir Singh Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea Geophysical Research Letters tropical cyclone power dissipation index sea surface temperature linear baroclinic model Arabian sea Bay of Bengal |
| title | Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea |
| title_full | Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea |
| title_fullStr | Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea |
| title_full_unstemmed | Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea |
| title_short | Sea Surface Temperature in the East Central Pacific Ocean as a New Potential Predictor of Post‐Monsoon Cyclonic Activity Over the Arabian Sea |
| title_sort | sea surface temperature in the east central pacific ocean as a new potential predictor of post monsoon cyclonic activity over the arabian sea |
| topic | tropical cyclone power dissipation index sea surface temperature linear baroclinic model Arabian sea Bay of Bengal |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109725 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT neerujaiswal seasurfacetemperatureintheeastcentralpacificoceanasanewpotentialpredictorofpostmonsooncyclonicactivityoverthearabiansea AT randhirsingh seasurfacetemperatureintheeastcentralpacificoceanasanewpotentialpredictorofpostmonsooncyclonicactivityoverthearabiansea |