Assessing Climate and Land-Use Change Scenarios on Future Desertification in Northeast Iran: A Data Mining and Google Earth Engine-Based Approach

Desertification poses a significant threat to dry and semi-arid regions worldwide, including Northeast Iran. This study investigates the impact of future climate and land-use changes on desertification in this region. Six remote sensing indices were selected to model desertification using four machi...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Weibo Yin, Qingfeng Hu, Jinping Liu, Peipei He, Dantong Zhu, Abdolhossein Boali
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-10-01
Series:Land
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/11/1802
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Summary:Desertification poses a significant threat to dry and semi-arid regions worldwide, including Northeast Iran. This study investigates the impact of future climate and land-use changes on desertification in this region. Six remote sensing indices were selected to model desertification using four machine learning algorithms: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Generalized Linear Models (GLM). To enhance the model’s reliability, an ensemble model was employed. Future climate and land-use scenarios were projected using the CNRM-CM6 model and Markov chain analysis, respectively. Results indicate that the RF and SVM models performed best in mapping current desertification patterns. The ensemble model highlights a 2% increase in decertified areas by 2040, primarily in the northwestern regions. The study underscores the importance of land-use change and climate change in driving desertification and emphasizes the need for sustainable land management practices and climate change adaptation strategies to mitigate future impacts.
ISSN:2073-445X