Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation Networks
Mathematical models are important methods in estimating epidemiological patterns of diseases and predicting the consequences of the spread of diseases. Investigation of risk factors of transportation modes and control of transportation exposures will help prevent disease transmission in the transpor...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8898923 |
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| _version_ | 1832547393515552768 |
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| author | Yu Zheng |
| author_facet | Yu Zheng |
| author_sort | Yu Zheng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Mathematical models are important methods in estimating epidemiological patterns of diseases and predicting the consequences of the spread of diseases. Investigation of risk factors of transportation modes and control of transportation exposures will help prevent disease transmission in the transportation system and protect people’s health. In this paper, a multimodal traffic distribution model is established to estimate the spreading of virus. The analysis is based on the empirical evidence learned from the real transportation network which connects Wuhan with other cities. We consider five mainstream travel modes, namely, auto mode, high-speed railway mode, common railway mode, coach mode, and flight mode. Logit model of economics is used to predict the distribution of trips and the corresponding diseases. The effectiveness of the model is verified with big data of the distribution of COVID-19 virus. We also conduct model-based tests to analyze the role of lockdown on different travel modes. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is implemented, the results of which assist in policy-making for containing infection transmission through traffic. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d940bb7326da4800985e52c25485dac7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0197-6729 2042-3195 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| spelling | doaj-art-d940bb7326da4800985e52c25485dac72025-02-03T06:44:57ZengWileyJournal of Advanced Transportation0197-67292042-31952020-01-01202010.1155/2020/88989238898923Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation NetworksYu Zheng0School of Economic and Management, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, ChinaMathematical models are important methods in estimating epidemiological patterns of diseases and predicting the consequences of the spread of diseases. Investigation of risk factors of transportation modes and control of transportation exposures will help prevent disease transmission in the transportation system and protect people’s health. In this paper, a multimodal traffic distribution model is established to estimate the spreading of virus. The analysis is based on the empirical evidence learned from the real transportation network which connects Wuhan with other cities. We consider five mainstream travel modes, namely, auto mode, high-speed railway mode, common railway mode, coach mode, and flight mode. Logit model of economics is used to predict the distribution of trips and the corresponding diseases. The effectiveness of the model is verified with big data of the distribution of COVID-19 virus. We also conduct model-based tests to analyze the role of lockdown on different travel modes. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is implemented, the results of which assist in policy-making for containing infection transmission through traffic.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8898923 |
| spellingShingle | Yu Zheng Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation Networks Journal of Advanced Transportation |
| title | Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation Networks |
| title_full | Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation Networks |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation Networks |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation Networks |
| title_short | Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation Networks |
| title_sort | estimation of disease transmission in multimodal transportation networks |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/8898923 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yuzheng estimationofdiseasetransmissioninmultimodaltransportationnetworks |