How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories?
Abstract Under persistent eutrophication of European water bodies and a changing climate, there is an increasing need to evaluate best‐management practices for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. In this study, we set up a daily discharge and water quality model in Hydrological Pr...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-07-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004299 |
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| author | Maarten Wynants Johan Strömqvist Lukas Hallberg John Livsey Göran Lindström Magdalena Bieroza |
| author_facet | Maarten Wynants Johan Strömqvist Lukas Hallberg John Livsey Göran Lindström Magdalena Bieroza |
| author_sort | Maarten Wynants |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Under persistent eutrophication of European water bodies and a changing climate, there is an increasing need to evaluate best‐management practices for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. In this study, we set up a daily discharge and water quality model in Hydrological Predictions of the Environment for two agricultural catchments representative for common cropping systems in Europe's humid continental regions to forecast the impacts of future climate trajectories on nutrient loads. The model predicted a slight increase in inorganic nitrogen (IN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads under RCP2.6, likely due to precipitation‐driven mobilization. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the IN loads were forecasted to decrease from 16% to 26% and 21%–50% respectively, most likely due to temperature‐driven increases in crop uptake and evapotranspiration. No distinct trends in TP loads were observed. A 50% decrease in nutrient loads, as targeted by the European Green Deal, was backcasted using a combination of management scenarios, including (a) a 20% reduction in mineral fertilizer application, (b) introducing cover crops (CC), and (c) stream mitigation (SM) by introducing floodplains. Target TP load reductions could only be achieved by SM, which likely results from secondary mobilization of sources within agricultural streams during high discharge events. Target IN load reductions were backcasted with a combination of SM, fertilizer reduction, and CC, wherein the required measures depended strongly on the climatic trajectory. Overall, this study successfully demonstrated a modeling approach for evaluating best‐management practices under diverging climate change trajectories, tailored to the catchment characteristics and specific nutrient reduction targets. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d8d6006793f74c0a93646503792a81fd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-d8d6006793f74c0a93646503792a81fd2025-01-29T07:58:53ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-07-01127n/an/a10.1029/2023EF004299How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories?Maarten Wynants0Johan Strömqvist1Lukas Hallberg2John Livsey3Göran Lindström4Magdalena Bieroza5Department of Soil and Environment Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala SwedenHydrological Research Department Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping SwedenDepartment of Soil and Environment Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala SwedenDepartment of Soil and Environment Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala SwedenHydrological Research Department Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping SwedenDepartment of Soil and Environment Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Uppsala SwedenAbstract Under persistent eutrophication of European water bodies and a changing climate, there is an increasing need to evaluate best‐management practices for reducing nutrient losses from agricultural catchments. In this study, we set up a daily discharge and water quality model in Hydrological Predictions of the Environment for two agricultural catchments representative for common cropping systems in Europe's humid continental regions to forecast the impacts of future climate trajectories on nutrient loads. The model predicted a slight increase in inorganic nitrogen (IN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads under RCP2.6, likely due to precipitation‐driven mobilization. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the IN loads were forecasted to decrease from 16% to 26% and 21%–50% respectively, most likely due to temperature‐driven increases in crop uptake and evapotranspiration. No distinct trends in TP loads were observed. A 50% decrease in nutrient loads, as targeted by the European Green Deal, was backcasted using a combination of management scenarios, including (a) a 20% reduction in mineral fertilizer application, (b) introducing cover crops (CC), and (c) stream mitigation (SM) by introducing floodplains. Target TP load reductions could only be achieved by SM, which likely results from secondary mobilization of sources within agricultural streams during high discharge events. Target IN load reductions were backcasted with a combination of SM, fertilizer reduction, and CC, wherein the required measures depended strongly on the climatic trajectory. Overall, this study successfully demonstrated a modeling approach for evaluating best‐management practices under diverging climate change trajectories, tailored to the catchment characteristics and specific nutrient reduction targets.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004299European green dealhydrological predictions of the environment (HYPE)water qualityforecastingbackcastingdiffuse nutrient pollution |
| spellingShingle | Maarten Wynants Johan Strömqvist Lukas Hallberg John Livsey Göran Lindström Magdalena Bieroza How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories? Earth's Future European green deal hydrological predictions of the environment (HYPE) water quality forecasting backcasting diffuse nutrient pollution |
| title | How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories? |
| title_full | How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories? |
| title_fullStr | How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories? |
| title_full_unstemmed | How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories? |
| title_short | How to Achieve a 50% Reduction in Nutrient Losses From Agricultural Catchments Under Different Climate Trajectories? |
| title_sort | how to achieve a 50 reduction in nutrient losses from agricultural catchments under different climate trajectories |
| topic | European green deal hydrological predictions of the environment (HYPE) water quality forecasting backcasting diffuse nutrient pollution |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004299 |
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