Predictive Modeling of Flood Frequency Utilizing an Analysis of the Casimcea River in Romania
Flooding is a recurrent natural hazard in Romania, causing significant socio-economic impacts. Historical data highlights the severity of floods, particularly the unprecedented flood of 1926. Between 1960 and 2010, Romania experienced over 400 major floods, which significantly impacted its infrastru...
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MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Hydrology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/7/172 |
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| author | Carmen Maftei Constantin Cerneaga Ashok Vaseashta |
| author_facet | Carmen Maftei Constantin Cerneaga Ashok Vaseashta |
| author_sort | Carmen Maftei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Flooding is a recurrent natural hazard in Romania, causing significant socio-economic impacts. Historical data highlights the severity of floods, particularly the unprecedented flood of 1926. Between 1960 and 2010, Romania experienced over 400 major floods, which significantly impacted its infrastructure and population. Particularly, the floods in 2005 and 2006 affected over 1.5 million people, resulting in 93 deaths and causing damages exceeding EUR 2 billion. In compliance with the Floods Directive, EU member states must assess and map flood hazards and risks. This study aims to develop a frequency analysis to determine discharges as a predictive indicator for different hazard levels: frequent events (10-year return period), medium probability events (100-year return period), and extreme events. The Casimcea catchment in central Dobrogea, drained by the Casimcea River into Lake Tasaul, serves as the study area. The annual maximum discharge data analysis, conducted through frequency analysis and the ELECTRE method, indicates that EV3-Min-Weibull, L-moments, and GEV-Min (L-moments) are the most effective probability density functions (PDFs). To conclude, although a single PDF model cannot be determined for the Casimcea River and its tributaries, it contributes to predictive modeling efforts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d86dfee0cd7d4e4090300529a04e49f0 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2306-5338 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Hydrology |
| spelling | doaj-art-d86dfee0cd7d4e4090300529a04e49f02025-08-20T02:45:46ZengMDPI AGHydrology2306-53382025-06-0112717210.3390/hydrology12070172Predictive Modeling of Flood Frequency Utilizing an Analysis of the Casimcea River in RomaniaCarmen Maftei0Constantin Cerneaga1Ashok Vaseashta2Faculty of Civil Engineering, Transilvania University of Brasov, 900152 Brasov, RomaniaInterdisciplinary Doctoral Study, Transilvania University of Brasov, 900152 Brasov, RomaniaOffice of Strategic Research, International Clean Water Institute, Manassas, VA 20108, USAFlooding is a recurrent natural hazard in Romania, causing significant socio-economic impacts. Historical data highlights the severity of floods, particularly the unprecedented flood of 1926. Between 1960 and 2010, Romania experienced over 400 major floods, which significantly impacted its infrastructure and population. Particularly, the floods in 2005 and 2006 affected over 1.5 million people, resulting in 93 deaths and causing damages exceeding EUR 2 billion. In compliance with the Floods Directive, EU member states must assess and map flood hazards and risks. This study aims to develop a frequency analysis to determine discharges as a predictive indicator for different hazard levels: frequent events (10-year return period), medium probability events (100-year return period), and extreme events. The Casimcea catchment in central Dobrogea, drained by the Casimcea River into Lake Tasaul, serves as the study area. The annual maximum discharge data analysis, conducted through frequency analysis and the ELECTRE method, indicates that EV3-Min-Weibull, L-moments, and GEV-Min (L-moments) are the most effective probability density functions (PDFs). To conclude, although a single PDF model cannot be determined for the Casimcea River and its tributaries, it contributes to predictive modeling efforts.https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/7/172frequency modelfloodCasimcea Riverpredictive modeling |
| spellingShingle | Carmen Maftei Constantin Cerneaga Ashok Vaseashta Predictive Modeling of Flood Frequency Utilizing an Analysis of the Casimcea River in Romania Hydrology frequency model flood Casimcea River predictive modeling |
| title | Predictive Modeling of Flood Frequency Utilizing an Analysis of the Casimcea River in Romania |
| title_full | Predictive Modeling of Flood Frequency Utilizing an Analysis of the Casimcea River in Romania |
| title_fullStr | Predictive Modeling of Flood Frequency Utilizing an Analysis of the Casimcea River in Romania |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictive Modeling of Flood Frequency Utilizing an Analysis of the Casimcea River in Romania |
| title_short | Predictive Modeling of Flood Frequency Utilizing an Analysis of the Casimcea River in Romania |
| title_sort | predictive modeling of flood frequency utilizing an analysis of the casimcea river in romania |
| topic | frequency model flood Casimcea River predictive modeling |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/12/7/172 |
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