Le réchauffement climatique actuel influence-t-il l’activité des ouragans extrêmes de l’Atlantique Nord (1945-2018) ?
This research concerning the North Atlantic Ocean is trying to establish a link between the extreme hurricanes (categories 4 and 5) activity and the global warming over the period 1945-2018. The hurricanes intensity has been estimated from 1945 to 1977 with the aircraft reconnaissances. These data c...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | fra |
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Pôle de Recherche pour l'Organisation et la diffusion de l'Information Géographique
2020-04-01
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| Series: | EchoGéo |
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| Online Access: | https://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/19141 |
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| _version_ | 1832579031186276352 |
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| author | Karl Hoarau Florence Pirard Ludovic Chalonge |
| author_facet | Karl Hoarau Florence Pirard Ludovic Chalonge |
| author_sort | Karl Hoarau |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This research concerning the North Atlantic Ocean is trying to establish a link between the extreme hurricanes (categories 4 and 5) activity and the global warming over the period 1945-2018. The hurricanes intensity has been estimated from 1945 to 1977 with the aircraft reconnaissances. These data come from the Hurdat database of National Hurricane Center in Miami. From 1978 to 2018, the intensity has been estimated with the Dvorak’s technique from the satellite pictures (archived from 1978). Three indicators have been studied: the extreme hurricanes number, their proportion in the category 1 to 5 hurricanes, and the absolute intensity of hurricanes for each decade. There is no trend in the number of extreme hurricanes over the period 1945-2018. The proportion of these hurricanes strongly increased with the positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and deeply decreased in a negative phase. The proportion doubled during La Niña events compared to the El Niño events. There is no trend in the absolute intensity of hurricanes per decade. It is still complicated to detect a possible global warming signal in hurricanes data with the natural variations on multiple time-scales. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d6d0e9b0f44f4f4b8c0080155f1bd242 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1963-1197 |
| language | fra |
| publishDate | 2020-04-01 |
| publisher | Pôle de Recherche pour l'Organisation et la diffusion de l'Information Géographique |
| record_format | Article |
| series | EchoGéo |
| spelling | doaj-art-d6d0e9b0f44f4f4b8c0080155f1bd2422025-01-30T12:45:28ZfraPôle de Recherche pour l'Organisation et la diffusion de l'Information GéographiqueEchoGéo1963-11972020-04-015110.4000/echogeo.19141Le réchauffement climatique actuel influence-t-il l’activité des ouragans extrêmes de l’Atlantique Nord (1945-2018) ?Karl HoarauFlorence PirardLudovic ChalongeThis research concerning the North Atlantic Ocean is trying to establish a link between the extreme hurricanes (categories 4 and 5) activity and the global warming over the period 1945-2018. The hurricanes intensity has been estimated from 1945 to 1977 with the aircraft reconnaissances. These data come from the Hurdat database of National Hurricane Center in Miami. From 1978 to 2018, the intensity has been estimated with the Dvorak’s technique from the satellite pictures (archived from 1978). Three indicators have been studied: the extreme hurricanes number, their proportion in the category 1 to 5 hurricanes, and the absolute intensity of hurricanes for each decade. There is no trend in the number of extreme hurricanes over the period 1945-2018. The proportion of these hurricanes strongly increased with the positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and deeply decreased in a negative phase. The proportion doubled during La Niña events compared to the El Niño events. There is no trend in the absolute intensity of hurricanes per decade. It is still complicated to detect a possible global warming signal in hurricanes data with the natural variations on multiple time-scales.https://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/19141extreme hurricanesmultidecadal oscillationEl NiñoLa Niñaglobal warming |
| spellingShingle | Karl Hoarau Florence Pirard Ludovic Chalonge Le réchauffement climatique actuel influence-t-il l’activité des ouragans extrêmes de l’Atlantique Nord (1945-2018) ? EchoGéo extreme hurricanes multidecadal oscillation El Niño La Niña global warming |
| title | Le réchauffement climatique actuel influence-t-il l’activité des ouragans extrêmes de l’Atlantique Nord (1945-2018) ? |
| title_full | Le réchauffement climatique actuel influence-t-il l’activité des ouragans extrêmes de l’Atlantique Nord (1945-2018) ? |
| title_fullStr | Le réchauffement climatique actuel influence-t-il l’activité des ouragans extrêmes de l’Atlantique Nord (1945-2018) ? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Le réchauffement climatique actuel influence-t-il l’activité des ouragans extrêmes de l’Atlantique Nord (1945-2018) ? |
| title_short | Le réchauffement climatique actuel influence-t-il l’activité des ouragans extrêmes de l’Atlantique Nord (1945-2018) ? |
| title_sort | le rechauffement climatique actuel influence t il l activite des ouragans extremes de l atlantique nord 1945 2018 |
| topic | extreme hurricanes multidecadal oscillation El Niño La Niña global warming |
| url | https://journals.openedition.org/echogeo/19141 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT karlhoarau lerechauffementclimatiqueactuelinfluencetillactivitedesouragansextremesdelatlantiquenord19452018 AT florencepirard lerechauffementclimatiqueactuelinfluencetillactivitedesouragansextremesdelatlantiquenord19452018 AT ludovicchalonge lerechauffementclimatiqueactuelinfluencetillactivitedesouragansextremesdelatlantiquenord19452018 |