A novel nomogram to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with heart failure
Abstract Aims Elderly patients with heart failure (HF) are associated with frequent all‐cause readmission or death. The present study sought to develop an accurate and easy‐to‐use model to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with HF. Methods and results This was a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-06-01
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| Series: | ESC Heart Failure |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.12703 |
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| author | Mengxi Yang Liyuan Tao Hui An Gang Liu Qiang Tu Hu Zhang Li Qin Zhu Xiao Yu Wang Jiaxai Fan Dongping Feng Yan Liang Jingyi Ren |
| author_facet | Mengxi Yang Liyuan Tao Hui An Gang Liu Qiang Tu Hu Zhang Li Qin Zhu Xiao Yu Wang Jiaxai Fan Dongping Feng Yan Liang Jingyi Ren |
| author_sort | Mengxi Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Aims Elderly patients with heart failure (HF) are associated with frequent all‐cause readmission or death. The present study sought to develop an accurate and easy‐to‐use model to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with HF. Methods and results This was a prospective cohort study in patients with HF aged 65 or older. Demographic, co‐morbidity, laboratory, and medication data were collected. A Cox regression model was used to identify factors for the prediction of readmission or death at 30 days and 1 year. A nomogram was developed with bootstrap validation. Of the included 854 patients, the cumulative all‐cause readmission and mortality rates were 10.5% and 11.6% at 30 days and 34.9% and 19.7% at 1 year, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with both 30 day and 1 year readmission or death were older age, stroke, diastolic blood pressure < 60 mmHg, body mass index ≤ 18.5 kg/m2, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, and BNP > 400 pg/mL (all P < 0.05). Anaemia, abnormal neutrophils, and admission without angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers were the specific independent risk factors of 30 day all‐cause readmission or death (all P < 0.05), whereas serum sodium ≤ 140 mmol/L and admission without beta‐blockers were the specific independent risk factors of 1 year all‐cause readmission or death (all P < 0.05). The C‐index of the 30 day and 1 year diagnosis prediction model was 0.778 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.693–0.862] and 0.738 (95% CI 0.640–0.836), respectively. Conclusions We developed accurate and easy‐to‐use nomograms to predict all‐cause readmission or death in Chinese elderly patients with HF. The nomograms will assist in reducing the all‐cause readmission and mortality rates. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d67b6f2fa32a4ff5afc9201488605234 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2055-5822 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | ESC Heart Failure |
| spelling | doaj-art-d67b6f2fa32a4ff5afc92014886052342025-02-03T10:25:46ZengWileyESC Heart Failure2055-58222020-06-01731015102410.1002/ehf2.12703A novel nomogram to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with heart failureMengxi Yang0Liyuan Tao1Hui An2Gang Liu3Qiang Tu4Hu Zhang5Li Qin6Zhu Xiao7Yu Wang8Jiaxai Fan9Dongping Feng10Yan Liang11Jingyi Ren12Department of Cardiology China‐Japan Friendship Hospital Beijing ChinaResearch Center of Clinical Epidemiology Peking University Third Hospital Beijing ChinaDepartment of Cardiology Hebei General Hospital Hebei ChinaDepartment of Cardiovascular Surgery Peking University People's Hospital Beijing ChinaState Key Laboratory for Molecular and Developmental Biology Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing ChinaDepartment of Cardiology China‐Japan Friendship Hospital Beijing ChinaDepartment of Laboratory Medicine Peking University People's Hospital Beijing ChinaDepartment of Cardiology China‐Japan Friendship Hospital Beijing ChinaDepartment of Cardiology China‐Japan Friendship Hospital Beijing ChinaDepartment of Cardiology China‐Japan Friendship Hospital Beijing ChinaDepartment of Cardiology China‐Japan Friendship Hospital Beijing ChinaDepartment of Cardiology China‐Japan Friendship Hospital Beijing ChinaDepartment of Cardiology China‐Japan Friendship Hospital Beijing ChinaAbstract Aims Elderly patients with heart failure (HF) are associated with frequent all‐cause readmission or death. The present study sought to develop an accurate and easy‐to‐use model to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with HF. Methods and results This was a prospective cohort study in patients with HF aged 65 or older. Demographic, co‐morbidity, laboratory, and medication data were collected. A Cox regression model was used to identify factors for the prediction of readmission or death at 30 days and 1 year. A nomogram was developed with bootstrap validation. Of the included 854 patients, the cumulative all‐cause readmission and mortality rates were 10.5% and 11.6% at 30 days and 34.9% and 19.7% at 1 year, respectively. The independent risk factors associated with both 30 day and 1 year readmission or death were older age, stroke, diastolic blood pressure < 60 mmHg, body mass index ≤ 18.5 kg/m2, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, and BNP > 400 pg/mL (all P < 0.05). Anaemia, abnormal neutrophils, and admission without angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers were the specific independent risk factors of 30 day all‐cause readmission or death (all P < 0.05), whereas serum sodium ≤ 140 mmol/L and admission without beta‐blockers were the specific independent risk factors of 1 year all‐cause readmission or death (all P < 0.05). The C‐index of the 30 day and 1 year diagnosis prediction model was 0.778 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.693–0.862] and 0.738 (95% CI 0.640–0.836), respectively. Conclusions We developed accurate and easy‐to‐use nomograms to predict all‐cause readmission or death in Chinese elderly patients with HF. The nomograms will assist in reducing the all‐cause readmission and mortality rates.https://doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.12703Heart failureElderlyAll‐cause readmissionMortalityNomogramPrognostic model |
| spellingShingle | Mengxi Yang Liyuan Tao Hui An Gang Liu Qiang Tu Hu Zhang Li Qin Zhu Xiao Yu Wang Jiaxai Fan Dongping Feng Yan Liang Jingyi Ren A novel nomogram to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with heart failure ESC Heart Failure Heart failure Elderly All‐cause readmission Mortality Nomogram Prognostic model |
| title | A novel nomogram to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with heart failure |
| title_full | A novel nomogram to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with heart failure |
| title_fullStr | A novel nomogram to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with heart failure |
| title_full_unstemmed | A novel nomogram to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with heart failure |
| title_short | A novel nomogram to predict all‐cause readmission or death risk in Chinese elderly patients with heart failure |
| title_sort | novel nomogram to predict all cause readmission or death risk in chinese elderly patients with heart failure |
| topic | Heart failure Elderly All‐cause readmission Mortality Nomogram Prognostic model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ehf2.12703 |
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