The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st century
Heating and cooling in households account for half of global energy use and a significant part of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These figures are expected to change significantly under the joint influence of climate change and demography. We assessed the respective contribution of each of t...
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Climate Services |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000943 |
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| author | Sylvain Cros Philippe Drobinski Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet Johann Meulemans |
| author_facet | Sylvain Cros Philippe Drobinski Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet Johann Meulemans |
| author_sort | Sylvain Cros |
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| description | Heating and cooling in households account for half of global energy use and a significant part of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These figures are expected to change significantly under the joint influence of climate change and demography. We assessed the respective contribution of each of these processes in mainland France, a country presenting heterogeneous climate and currently low ownership of air conditioners. We projected heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) up to 2100 using EURO-CORDEX simulations and considering three sources of uncertainty: three different methods for computing HDD and CDD; two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5); and two population projections. We found a net increase in energy demand by 2100, driven by a slight decrease in HDDs and a strong increase in CDDs. Climate and population have a similar influence on net aggregate energy demand, however with statistically significant differences from a French department to an other. In particular, climate change has a particularly strong influence on HDDs in Atlantic and Mediterranean coastal regions after 2070. In turn, CDDs appear more evenly impacted by climate change and population increase, except in Southern cities where population is growing fast. In any case, the ranking between the two influences is strongly sensitive to population projections scenarios. This influence distinction is useful to apply a differentiated energy policy: energy efficiency measures are more effective for climate-driven demand increases, while behavioural policies are better suited for population-driven ones. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d60dadc7f8144ea097df7d04b2b9aea8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Climate Services |
| spelling | doaj-art-d60dadc7f8144ea097df7d04b2b9aea82025-01-30T05:14:45ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072025-01-0137100539The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st centurySylvain Cros0Philippe Drobinski1Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet2Johann Meulemans3LMD/IPSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, 91120, Palaiseau, France; Corresponding author.LMD/IPSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, 91120, Palaiseau, FranceEcole des Ponts ParisTech, Centre international de recherche sur l’environnement et le développement (CIRED), 45 bis, avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, 94736, Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex, FranceSaint-Gobain Research Paris, 39 quai Lucien Lefranc, 93300, Aubervilliers, FranceHeating and cooling in households account for half of global energy use and a significant part of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These figures are expected to change significantly under the joint influence of climate change and demography. We assessed the respective contribution of each of these processes in mainland France, a country presenting heterogeneous climate and currently low ownership of air conditioners. We projected heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) up to 2100 using EURO-CORDEX simulations and considering three sources of uncertainty: three different methods for computing HDD and CDD; two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5); and two population projections. We found a net increase in energy demand by 2100, driven by a slight decrease in HDDs and a strong increase in CDDs. Climate and population have a similar influence on net aggregate energy demand, however with statistically significant differences from a French department to an other. In particular, climate change has a particularly strong influence on HDDs in Atlantic and Mediterranean coastal regions after 2070. In turn, CDDs appear more evenly impacted by climate change and population increase, except in Southern cities where population is growing fast. In any case, the ranking between the two influences is strongly sensitive to population projections scenarios. This influence distinction is useful to apply a differentiated energy policy: energy efficiency measures are more effective for climate-driven demand increases, while behavioural policies are better suited for population-driven ones.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000943ResidentialBuildingDegree-dayClimate modelDemographyFrance |
| spellingShingle | Sylvain Cros Philippe Drobinski Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet Johann Meulemans The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st century Climate Services Residential Building Degree-day Climate model Demography France |
| title | The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st century |
| title_full | The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st century |
| title_fullStr | The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st century |
| title_full_unstemmed | The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st century |
| title_short | The comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree-day projections for France in the 21st century |
| title_sort | comparative influence of climate change and demography in spatially distributed degree day projections for france in the 21st century |
| topic | Residential Building Degree-day Climate model Demography France |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880724000943 |
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