Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times
Recent trends in the global world (the financial and coronavirus crises, global geopolitical uncertainty, etc.) put macroeconomic modeling in front of the need to consider crisis phenomena in models. In this paper we try to answer the question of what has changed in macroeconomic modeling due to the...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Financial Research Institute
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Финансовый журнал |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.finjournal-nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2025/1/statii/04_1_2025_v17.pdf |
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| author | Anton I. Votinov1 Julia A. Polshchikova Karen A. Nersisyan |
| author_facet | Anton I. Votinov1 Julia A. Polshchikova Karen A. Nersisyan |
| author_sort | Anton I. Votinov1 |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Recent trends in the global world (the financial and coronavirus crises, global geopolitical uncertainty, etc.) put macroeconomic modeling in front of the need to consider crisis phenomena in models. In this paper we try to answer the question of what has changed in macroeconomic modeling due to the coronavirus crisis and other shocks that the global economy has faced recently. Based on the literature review, the current directions in the implementation of the main classes of macroeconomic models in the pandemic and post-pandemic periods are examined. First, approaches to forecasting in crisis conditions are analyzed. Then the emphasis is shifted to nowcasting and projections for short periods of time. Mathematical chaos theory is also considered in the context of forecasting under specific and large shocks. We also discuss general equilibrium models and the relevance of incorporating heterogeneity and epidemiologic concepts into the structure of such models. Finally, we point out to a multiscenario approach to analyzing fiscal sustainability through models in the context of the unprecedented increase of government burdens faced by many countries during crisis. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d340e76f667442c48bc7f67e3a3e5719 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2075-1990 2658-5332 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Financial Research Institute |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Финансовый журнал |
| spelling | doaj-art-d340e76f667442c48bc7f67e3a3e57192025-08-20T02:11:12ZengFinancial Research InstituteФинансовый журнал2075-19902658-53322025-02-01171627310.31107/2075-1990-2025-1-62-73Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic TimesAnton I. Votinov10https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2972-8489Julia A. Polshchikova1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8864-2416Karen A. Nersisyan2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4715-8692Financial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian FederationFinancial Research Institute, Moscow, Russian Federation; HSE University, Moscow, Russian FederationInstitute of Economics after M. Kotanyan of NAS RA, Yerevan, Republic of ArmeniaRecent trends in the global world (the financial and coronavirus crises, global geopolitical uncertainty, etc.) put macroeconomic modeling in front of the need to consider crisis phenomena in models. In this paper we try to answer the question of what has changed in macroeconomic modeling due to the coronavirus crisis and other shocks that the global economy has faced recently. Based on the literature review, the current directions in the implementation of the main classes of macroeconomic models in the pandemic and post-pandemic periods are examined. First, approaches to forecasting in crisis conditions are analyzed. Then the emphasis is shifted to nowcasting and projections for short periods of time. Mathematical chaos theory is also considered in the context of forecasting under specific and large shocks. We also discuss general equilibrium models and the relevance of incorporating heterogeneity and epidemiologic concepts into the structure of such models. Finally, we point out to a multiscenario approach to analyzing fiscal sustainability through models in the context of the unprecedented increase of government burdens faced by many countries during crisis.https://www.finjournal-nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2025/1/statii/04_1_2025_v17.pdfmacroeconomic modelingcoronavirus crisiscovid-19forecastingprojectionsdynamic and static general equilibrium modelspublic debt sustainability analysis |
| spellingShingle | Anton I. Votinov1 Julia A. Polshchikova Karen A. Nersisyan Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times Финансовый журнал macroeconomic modeling coronavirus crisis covid-19 forecasting projections dynamic and static general equilibrium models public debt sustainability analysis |
| title | Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times |
| title_full | Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times |
| title_fullStr | Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times |
| title_full_unstemmed | Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times |
| title_short | Macroeconomic Modeling in Post-pandemic Times |
| title_sort | macroeconomic modeling in post pandemic times |
| topic | macroeconomic modeling coronavirus crisis covid-19 forecasting projections dynamic and static general equilibrium models public debt sustainability analysis |
| url | https://www.finjournal-nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2025/1/statii/04_1_2025_v17.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT antonivotinov1 macroeconomicmodelinginpostpandemictimes AT juliaapolshchikova macroeconomicmodelinginpostpandemictimes AT karenanersisyan macroeconomicmodelinginpostpandemictimes |