Machine learning based prediction models for the prognosis of COVID-19 patients with DKA
Abstract Patients with Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) have increased critical illness and mortality during coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of our study was to develop a predictive model for the occurrence of critical illness and mortality in COVID-19 patients with DKA utilizing machine le...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85357-9 |
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| Summary: | Abstract Patients with Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) have increased critical illness and mortality during coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of our study was to develop a predictive model for the occurrence of critical illness and mortality in COVID-19 patients with DKA utilizing machine learning. Blood samples and clinical data from 242 COVID-19 patients with DKA collected from December 2022 to January 2023 at Second Xiangya Hospital. Patients were categorized into non-death (n = 202) and death (n = 38) groups, and non-severe (n = 146) and severe (n = 96) groups. We developed five machine learning-based prediction models—Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)—to evaluate the prognosis of COVID-19 patients with DKA. We employed 5-fold cross-validation for model evaluation and used the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) algorithm for result interpretation to ensure reliability. The LR model demonstrated the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.933) in predicting mortality. Additionally, the LR model excelled (AUC = 0.898) in predicting progression to severe disease. This study developed a machine learning-based predictive model for the progression to severe disease or death in COVID-19 patients with DKA, which can serve as a valuable tool to guide clinical treatment decisions. |
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| ISSN: | 2045-2322 |