THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY
The mathematical method of making forecasts when the initial data uncertainty have been considered. To obtain point and interval estimates of the parameters of mathematical models that take into account errors in the values of the function and argument, the use methods of confluent analysis has been...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Publishing House of the State University of Management
2019-03-01
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| Series: | Вестник университета |
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| Online Access: | https://vestnik.guu.ru/jour/article/view/1259 |
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| author | Yu. Gagarin S. Gagarina |
| author_facet | Yu. Gagarin S. Gagarina |
| author_sort | Yu. Gagarin |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The mathematical method of making forecasts when the initial data uncertainty have been considered. To obtain point and interval estimates of the parameters of mathematical models that take into account errors in the values of the function and argument, the use methods of confluent analysis has been proposed. For linear models, point estimates and confidence intervals of predictions have been found. The developed method is used to solve the problem of forecasting the volume of services provided by organizations of the housing and utilities complex. The sales volume simulating for different values of time intervals has been conducted and the influence of the initial information error on the model parameter values and predicted values has been analyzed. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-cf5d254714864de7a14bb3538dca1296 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1816-4277 2686-8415 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2019-03-01 |
| publisher | Publishing House of the State University of Management |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Вестник университета |
| spelling | doaj-art-cf5d254714864de7a14bb3538dca12962025-02-04T08:27:58ZengPublishing House of the State University of ManagementВестник университета1816-42772686-84152019-03-0101949910.26425/1816-4277-2019-1-94-991258THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTYYu. Gagarin0S. Gagarina1Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Kaluga BranchKaluga State University named afler K. E. TsiolkovskyThe mathematical method of making forecasts when the initial data uncertainty have been considered. To obtain point and interval estimates of the parameters of mathematical models that take into account errors in the values of the function and argument, the use methods of confluent analysis has been proposed. For linear models, point estimates and confidence intervals of predictions have been found. The developed method is used to solve the problem of forecasting the volume of services provided by organizations of the housing and utilities complex. The sales volume simulating for different values of time intervals has been conducted and the influence of the initial information error on the model parameter values and predicted values has been analyzed.https://vestnik.guu.ru/jour/article/view/1259predictionuncertaintyparameter estimatesinput dataconfidence intervalsconfluent analysis |
| spellingShingle | Yu. Gagarin S. Gagarina THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY Вестник университета prediction uncertainty parameter estimates input data confidence intervals confluent analysis |
| title | THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY |
| title_full | THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY |
| title_fullStr | THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY |
| title_full_unstemmed | THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY |
| title_short | THE PREDICTION OF ENTERPRISES ACTIVITY INDICATORS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE INITIAL DATA UNCERTAINTY |
| title_sort | prediction of enterprises activity indicators taking into account the initial data uncertainty |
| topic | prediction uncertainty parameter estimates input data confidence intervals confluent analysis |
| url | https://vestnik.guu.ru/jour/article/view/1259 |
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