A stochastic model for water-vegetation systems and the effect of decreasing precipitation on semi-arid environments
Current climate change trends are affecting the magnitude and recurrence of extreme weather events. In particular, several semi-arid regions around the planet are confronting more intense and prolonged lack of precipitation, slowly transforming part of these regions into deserts in some cases. Altho...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
AIMS Press
2018-09-01
|
| Series: | Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.aimspress.com/article/doi/10.3934/mbe.2018052 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | Current climate change trends are affecting the magnitude and recurrence of extreme weather events. In particular, several semi-arid regions around the planet are confronting more intense and prolonged lack of precipitation, slowly transforming part of these regions into deserts in some cases. Although it is documented that a decreasing tendency in precipitation might induce earlier disappearance of vegetation, quantifying the relationship between decrease of precipitation and vegetation endurance remains a challenging task due to the inherent complexities involved in distinct scenarios. In this paper we present a model for precipitation-vegetation dynamics in semi-arid landscapes that can be used to explore numerically the impact of decreasing precipitation trends on appearance of desertification events. The model, a stochastic differential equation approximation derived from a Markov jump process, is used to generate extensive simulations that suggest a relationship between precipitation reduction and the desertification process, which might take several years in some instances. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1551-0018 |